One can doubt the threats emanating from Tehran, but Saddam Hussein's threats did not turn out to be entirely groundless, if one remembers that the Americans have become bogged down in Iraq. Tehran has the means and options to resist: it can easily close the oil routes and destroy the market, which will affect the whole world.
There is another model: the Americans will leave the region as they left Vietnam. In this case, Iran's influence will immediately grow, at the very least because the Americans struck Tehran's main opponents in Afghanistan and Iraq: the Taliban and Saddam.
It seems that for the time being, the Americans do not want another military campaign because they will have to do a great deal of work in Iraq over the next few years. On the other hand, they want to halt the spread of Iran's influence and make Tehran abandon its military programs, whose existence virtually no one doubts. So far, the game is being played at the diplomatic level.
Europe is also involved. It may give Iran an ultimatum to end its military programs, threatening Tehran with sanctions. However, far from every country is prepared to observe them. It seems that Russia will play its own game until it has to take a clear-cut position. This is because if the odds are in Iran's favor, the dividends on which Russia may count are comparable with those it can gain by joining the US.
Both Russia and the Europeans have taken a wait-and-see position. The Americans do not seem to have made a decision yet because none of the options is good. Tehran has chosen the right moment to flex its muscles and remind everyone about how much the issue is worth.
