"The Economy Ministry developed three possible scenarios (for the next three years) considering fluctuation of oil prices in the margin of $22-40 per barrel," he said.
According to Mr. Aitekenov, the basic scenario envisions that global oil prices will be close to $28.5-$34.4 per barrel. "In accordance with this scenario, the average GDP growth in 2006-2008 will be 8.1%," the vice-minister stated.
The low-price scenario envisions global oil prices close to $22-$24 per barrel. "The actual GDP growth in this case will constitute about 7.4% during three years, on average," Mr. Aitekenov underlined. The high-price scenario envisions global oil prices close to $40 per barrel. "According to a high-price scenario, the average GDP growth in 2006-2008 will be 8.8%," the vice-minister reported.
Compared to 2000, the real GDP growth in Kazakhstan reached 49%.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev instructed the Kazakh government to achieve a 100% GDP growth by 2010 compared to 2000.
According to the Kazakh Economy Ministry, in order to accomplish this task, it is necessary to achieve an average yearly GDP growth of not less than 8%. The average GDP growth in Kazakstan in the past four years was 10.4%.
