A corresponding member of the Russian academy of Sciences, Igor Mokhov, says global models on climate change show the warming periods of the first half and the end of the 20th century differ substantially. The latter cannot be explained without taking man-made factors into consideration.
Aside from scientific data, experts and ordinary people have a great deal of evidence indicating that the climate is changing, including extreme temperature fluctuations and unprecedented levels of precipitation. The water level in the oceans is rising and glaciers are melting, which might cause the flooding of coastal regions in such countries as Bangladesh, the Netherlands and Italy. For Russia, in contrast, global warming might be beneficial because it will increase the bio-productivity of many Russian regions. In addition, the scientist says Russian winters will become milder, thereby meaning less energy will be used in the country.
However, according to Mr. Mokhov, even the full-scale implementation of the Kyoto protocol will not lead to drastic climate changes. "It is more of an economic and political agreement," he says, "a declaration of intent that promotes future dialogue."
Andrei Illarionov, the president's economic advisor is a staunch opponent of the Kyoto protocol. He believes that the adoption of the document will not allow Russia to double its GDP in ten years. Mr. Illarionov has many supporters who insist that the Kyoto Protocol will severely limit Russia's economic development. Experts from the Russia and Kyoto Protocol group believe that the document was ratified for political reasons. Moscow has given up the freedom of carbon dioxide emissions in exchange for accession to the WTO.
In contrast, Mr. Illarionov's opponents consider Kyoto almost a panacea for all problems. Russia is allowed to produce 17.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. According to Sergei Kurayev, an expert from the Russian Regional Ecology Center, the country will be able to produce only 80% of the allowed amount. The remaining 20% of the quota can be used at Russia's discretion. It can be sold or saved for future purposes; for example they could be added to the next five-year period quota. Kyoto supporters are not promising the world, but the profits might be substantial.
