Gazeta
Could Kasyanov Take On Putin In 2008?
On Thursday, a former prime minister of Russia, Mikhail Kasyanov, announced he was not ruling out running for the presidency as a democratic coalition candidate. Commentators are divided about the prospects of his political future, writes Gazeta.
Andrei Ryabov, scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center:
"Mr. Kasyanov is a capable political player: he has chosen the right time and form for his announcement, leaving everyone in doubt about whether this is a Kremlin-supported project or an independent move. Of course he must have held talks of some description with the presidential administration. Money will be no problem. He is a wealthy man himself, and can probably get more from what remains of the Yeltsin's team."
Alexei Makarkin, deputy director general of the Center for Political Technologies:
"Serious political players will think twice about supporting the former premier, for political investment in Russia is a risky affair, to say nothing of investment in an opposition project. The timing for Mr. Kasyanov's announcement was correct because he could have fallen into oblivion by 2007. Rather than appealing to the shrinking 7% right-wing population, Mr. Kasyanov would seek broader electoral support, trying to build on the successes of his cabinet. So far, he can hardly win any Western support: in those parts, they support only those who have chances of winning."
Dmitry Badovsky, an expert with the Social Systems Institute:
"Mr. Kasyanov's recent move appears to be more a test of how various groups will respond. An upsurge of bad publicity for him would indicate how forcefully the Kremlin is opposed to him. If the elite supports Mr. Kasyanov, he will have no problem with funding. As to the Western attitudes, his announcement comes tellingly right before the Bratislava summit."
Leonid Gozman, a member of the Federal Political Council of the Union of Right Forces:
"Mr. Kasyanov could be a real rival for Mr. Putin. He cannot be called a communist or a nationalist. He has not been involved in public politics, which in the circumstances is a plus point. He could unite different democratically minded people."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Russia's Influence In Central Asia Might Be Shattered
President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev has proposed establishing "a union of Central Asian nations," and has invited Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to join in. Mr. Nazarbayev's new integration policy probably means that Russia's influence in Central Asia could be severely undermined, adding to its differences with Ukraine and Georgia and the recent turmoil with Moldova, Nezavisimaya Gazeta believes.
Conspicuously, Mr. Nazarbayev does not see a role for Russia in the planned partnership. Most analysts view this as an indication that Astana understands that Russia will give it no more preferences. Given the change of power in Ukraine, the bleak prospects for current post-Soviet integration structures look even more uncertain.
The Kazakh leader was evidently driven by the recent events in Ukraine as he openly failed to mention Russia among the participants in the new project, which might mean that Astana is seeking a new stance in dialogue with Moscow.
China, which is increasingly taking the lead in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as Russia barely copes with its investment expansion, could also welcome the new alliance in the future. In the context of many regional threats and challenges, Central Asian post-Soviet states still need powerful sponsors and patrons in their thrust toward real independence.
Another possibility is that Astana itself is seeking to become the regional boss by forcing Moscow out of regional processes.
Russky Kuryer
Russian Airbase In Kyrgyzstan In A Deplorable State
Personnel at Russia's Kant airbase, which is outside Bishkek, sent the Russian leadership a letter stating that they received their wages without due allowances and had no set period of service, writes Russky Kuryer.
In the medical unit, there is only one medical officer. Instead of the supposed 1,200 personnel, there are only 120, with each person performing the duties of several specialists at once. Owing to heating problem, the families of servicemen are freezing. School curricula do not correspond to their Russian counterparts.
The instances cited in the letter are also confirmed by an official report from the Russian Audit Chamber, which inspected the airbase in November 2004.
Under the relevant interstate agreement, Kyrgyzstan undertook to provide communal and utilities services. When the inspection was conducted, the base was "not provided with heat and hot water." There was a shortage of drinking water, while few telephones had been installed.
However, the Kyrgyz side is enjoying its rights in full. Under the agreement, the base must provide technical support for 12 aircraft of a Kyrgyz commercial airline on a monthly basis. In reality, the base accepts Kyrgyz aircraft even above this quota.
Monetary allowances to servicemen and the salaries of civilian personnel are paid here according to the norms of the Russian Federation, without due consideration for the complex climatic conditions of Kyrgyzstan. In the opinion of the Audit Chamber, the level of monetary allowances here is 1.3- 2 times lower than in similar positions in Russian troops deployed in other CIS countries. The salaries of civilian personnel are 1.5-2.6 times lower than those in other CIS countries.
However, according to the Audit Chamber's information, the numerous executives coming to Kant "to conduct organizational-staff activities" get travel expenses at the rate set for those going on business abroad, i.e., $44 a day. In the past year, the travel expenses paid have accounted for 68% of all expenditures on themaintenance of the airbase.
The command was informed about the results of the work of the Audit Chamber last year. There have been no changes so far.
Izvestia
Russian President's Ratings Go Up
This winter has been the most difficult for the head of state, government and parliament since President Vladimir Putin came to power. However, prominent sociologists say there is no talk of an irreparable crisis of confidence, Izvestia writes.
Russians' confidence in Mr. Putin has grown by 5% over the last month, the Levada Center reported on Thursday. Today, almost two thirds or 65% of citizens approve of the president's policy. Indeed, 42% of Russians would be ready to re-elect him this week, says Alexander Oslon, president of the Public Opinion fund.
Yelena Bashkirova, the head of Bashkirova & Partners, says that most Russians blame the failed benefit reform on the government and Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov personally.
Now the crisis is almost over: people were waiting for the president to explain the government's position and to take action. He did so, demanding that the cabinet raise pensions and allowances to servicemen.
The protests are definitely fading, but there is still an unpleasant aftertaste, points out Valery Fyodorov, the general director of the All-Russian Opinion Research Center. This year the public mindset has a so-called negative filter turned on: the public ignores the positive aspects of proposed reforms, believing that any moves from the authorities will have bad consequences. This is an extremely serious problem and the government will have to address it soon.
Sociologists, however, doubt whether Mr. Fradkov's government can cope with the task.
Vedomosti
Coca-Cola To Buy 25% Of Russian Juice Market
Coca-Cola plans to take over Russia's Multon company, a major juice producer. Some reports suggest the deal with go through in the next few weeks, Vedomosti reports.
A Federal Anti-Trust Service official confirmed the deal. He said his agency was examining a Coca-Cola bid to buy Multon's controlling stock.
Analysts believe Multon worth between $500 million and $650 million. They also say transnational companies will become much more interested in the Russian market after the deal.
"The market is ready for strategic investors," Nidan-group executive director Olga Yeremeyeva says. "Every producer understands this will happen soon."
David Yakobashvili, who co-owns the Wimm-Bill-Dann juice company, is not afraid of the extra competition. "We already have fairly fierce competition," he says.
Ralf Vendland, chief of the Eckes-Granini juice company's Russian subsidiary, agrees with Mr. Yakobashvili. "I have not heard of any major Coca-Cola successes on the juice market outside the US, with the exception of the Czech Republic," he says.
Multon is based in St. Petersburg and produces the Rich, Nico and Dobry (Kind) brands. It owns two factories with an annual capacity of 740 million liters of juice. In October 2004, Multon controlled 25.6% of the Russian juice market. Company turnover is $330 million.
Noviye Izvestia
Does Russia Need Immigrant Workers?
German Gref, Russia's economic development and trade minister, announced yesterday that the Russian economy would not solve its problems without foreign labor and GDP could not be doubled without immigration legislation being liberalized, reports Noviye Izvestia.
The minister produced preliminary figures that suggested that an absolute reduction in the country's labor force would be 30,000 people in 2000, 370,000 in 2007 and 538,000 in 2008. He believes quotas on the number of immigrants that employers can take on need to be abolished to solve the problem.
Alexander Belov, the press secretary of the Movement against Illegal Immigration, argues that liberalization of immigration legislation will create many new problems. "Today, official data show Russia loses over $3.5 billion a year because of immigrant workers," he points out. If the ministry's plan is implemented, the losses will increase. Moreover, even if entry procedures are simplified, highly qualified professionals will not come to Russia: "Only those who live worse than we want to come to a country with our living standards," he says.
Viktor Alksnis, who sits on the State Duma committee for natural resources, sees the problem in a different light. "There are about 28 million people in the CIS and Baltic States whose ethnic groups have national state entities in Russia," he says. Russians, Tartars, Ossetians, Bashkirs, Mordovians, Chuvashes and other nationalities living outside Russia represent "a great reserve that can provide the country with a qualified and ethnically similar labor force."
