Vedomosti
Is Russia Preparing A Missile Shield?
It was reported yesterday that in January Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov had discussed Russia's withdrawal from the Soviet-US Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with his American counterpart, Vedomosti writes.
Donald Rumsfeld is said not to have protested Russia's hypothetical withdrawal from the treaty. However, during further talks, the Russian Foreign Ministry allegedly disavowed Mr. Ivanov's statement.
A source close to the Defense Ministry leadership said that Mr. Ivanov asked Mr. Rumsfeld's opinion about how America would react to Russia's hypothetical withdrawal from the treaty during his January visit to Washington. A political decision on the issue, however, has not been made so far.
Experts doubt that a rapid withdrawal from the treaty would be practicable. This treaty is the only agreement that prohibits an entire class of missiles, said Mr. Robert J. Einhorn, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Russia has enough weapon systems to deter any potential adversary in the next ten years, and hence does not need to create a missile shield, says Anatoly Dyakov, the director of the Russian Disarmament Center.
Observers do not expect Russia to be punished with sanctions if it withdraws from the INF treaty. This will not pose a threat to NATO, as the Russian military most probably intend to use intermediate-range missiles with conventional warheads for strikes at terrorist bases in the south.
Experts believe maintaining these missiles will be cheaper than restoring the combat ability of its air fleet and ground forces. Russia has the technical capabilities to resume the designing and construction of missiles.
Under the 1987 INF treaty, Russia and the USA destroyed over 2,000 missiles with a range of between 500km and 5,500km. The treaty also prohibits work to design and produce such missiles. According to Article 15, the parties may withdraw from the treaty after notifying the other party of this intention six months in advance.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Does Japan Want All The Kuriles?
In the run-up to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit Japan, Japanese legislators have suddenly changed the terms on which Tokyo is ready to sign a peace treaty with Moscow. Now they are demanding that Moscow cede "all other northern territories," and not just the islands of Habomai, Shikotan, Kunashiri and Etorofu, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The Japanese side has never voiced such territorial claims before. Until now, Tokyo saw the Southern Kurile Islands as "the northern territories." However, now its seems that Japanese parliamentarians have extended this term to mean all the Kuriles.
Apart from territorial claims, Japan is trying to present other claims to Russia stemming from WWII. For instance, Tokyo wants to portray Japanese prisoners of war captured by the Red Army in northeast China, in Korea, South Sakhalin and the Kuriles, as interned persons. Japan wants to receive material compensation from Russia.
The new claims have put President Putin's summer visit to Tokyo under a question mark, as they change the context of bilateral talks.
Japan has also stepped up its territorial disputes with China and Korea, which may leave the international community taking a negative view on Tokyo's "territorial syndrome."
This insistent approach to presenting claims could convince Tokyo's neighbors to forge an informal "front" against Japan. However, analysts believe that this would only complicate security in the Far East.
Kommersant
Putin Fires First Governor
Yesterday, President Vladimir Putin dismissed Vladimir Loginov from his post as governor of the Koryak Autonomous District (Kamchatka) "for losing the Russian president's trust after failing to fulfill his obligations appropriately," writes Kommersant.
Interestingly, this "demonstrative whipping" was handed out to a popularly elected regional leader (Mr. Loginov was reelected in a direct vote last summer).
The majority of Russians will understand the reason for the dismissal: heating shortages.
The provision on losing the president's trust is contained in one of the president-proposed laws that abolished gubernatorial elections and stipulated that gubernatorial candidates should be approved by local legislatures. The legislation was adopted in December 2004. However, the provision did not attract much attention at that time. Many people decided the provision only concerned governors appointed under the new procedure.
In reality, the provision does not contain any "privileges" for popularly elected governors. The president has the right to dismiss both governors appointed under the new procedure and elected governors, even if the latter only took up their positions recently.
The Kremlin obviously decided it was time to flex its muscles. Neither the governor himself nor the regional situation is likely to be the crux of the matter. There are governors who are less popular in Moscow than Mr. Loginov, and Russia has seen bigger energy crises than the one in the Koryak autonomy. Yesterday's dismissal seems to be a warning to those governors who were positive they would retain their posts until their terms expired.
Mr. Loginov was obviously a scapegoat. If the other governors draw the appropriate conclusions from the Koryak affair, it may be a long time before the next dismissal.
Gazeta
Ukraine Wants Germany In Gas Transport Consortium With Russia
Kiev is again reaching out to Germany with a concept of a trilateral gas transport consortium. Ukraine recently made a proposal to hold Russia-Ukraine-Germany negotiations on the issue, writes Gazeta.
In 2002, then President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder put forward the idea of a consortium, and the relevant papers were signed in Kiev between Russia's Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz Ukrainy in January 2003. However, Ukraine wanted to sell Russian natural gas to the West itself. Moscow said the consortium should have Ukrainian gas pipelines as a compromise, but Ukraine did not agree. As a result, the consortium was left with simply building a new pipeline.
Ukraine's new leader, Viktor Yushchenko, has reached out to Germany once again. According to Naftogaz Ukrainy chairman Alexei Ivchenko, Kiev sees Germany's role in the consortium as the buyer, Ukraine's as the transit agent, and Russia's as the supplier. Gazprom has expressed its surprise at the news. A spokesman said the two-party consortium has already been established, and it has its own business issues to be settled between the two participants.
Alexei Makarkin, the deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, says the Ukrainians had previously hoped to strengthen the Western role in the consortium at Russia's expense. However, he says, Gazprom has been in partnership with Germany much longer than Naftogaz, so Kiev will have to make some concessions.
Mr. Yushchenko's claims that Russia and Ukraine are eternal partners now seem to be of little worth, since Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko has already promised to stop the reverse motion of Russian oil through the pipeline to the West in favor of Kazakh oil, and local lawmakers have proposed reversing the privatization of Ukrtatnaft, a Russian-majority-owned Ukrainian company.
Mr. Ivchenko said yesterday that as regards gas supplies from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Germany were intending to launch a Ukrainian-German-Polish European gas trading initiative. This move could undermine Russia's interests, experts say, as it will compete with Gazprom in Europe.
Vedomosti
Coca-Cola Builds Up Its Sales In Russia
Yesterday Coca-Cola made public its financial report for last year, which featured data for the first time on sales in Russia, writes Vedomosti.
On the whole, the company's sales in Russia rose by 18% in physical terms (the sales of the Coca-Cola brand increased by 19%). Only the Chinese market was a bigger success story of the corporation, as its sales there were up 22%. However, Coca-Cola has posted its highest growth rates in terms of sales in Russia in the past five to ten years (21%), whereas the average figure for China is 17-18%.
Grant Winterton, the Coca-Cola Company's general manager for operations in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, is satisfied with the results. He says the company's indices in the region have largely increased thanks to expansion into new segments like ice tea and energy drinks.
"It is not surprising that Coca-Cola is posting such growth rates in Russia, because in comparison with Europe, the drink only appeared in Russia ten years ago," says Alexander Svinov, an analyst with Alfa-Bank.
"The market's potential has not yet been fully exhausted," agrees Marat Ibragimov, an analyst with UralSib financial corporation. "The company's sales will continue to grow largely thanks to the regions."
Coca-Cola intends to strengthen its positions in other markets as well. Prior to announcing the company's financial results, Coca-Cola CEO Neville Isdell told analysts about plans to make some acquisitions in Russia in the juice, drinking water and energy drink markets.
If Coca-Cola acquires St. Petersburg's Multon company, it will control a quarter of the Russian juice market, which analysts believe is worth $600-650 million.
The Biznes Analitika agency believes Coca-Cola has 36.2% of the market in large Russian cities in financial terms. Coca-Cola, whose global sales exceed $22 billion (analysts believe sales in Russia are worth over $700 million), owns 11 factories in Russia that produce carbonated water.
Vremya Novostei
Survey Shows Russia Not Yet Ready For Woman President
Bashkirova & Partners, a polling company, conducted a nationwide survey in February in a bid to identify if Russians were ready to elect a woman president, writes Vremya Novostei.
The results were that almost two-thirds of Russians (63.8% - 53.3% of men and 72.5% of women) generally supported the idea of electing a woman to the Russian presidency, while 30.9% strongly opposed the idea.
The survey identified that the most popular Russian female politician is St. Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko, whom 21% of the respondents said they would like to see become president. This is not only because she is widely known, but also because she is Russia's sole woman governor.
Irina Khakamada, formerly an SPS head, and now the leader of a liberal party, Our Choice, came second in the virtual ladies-only presidential poll, with 10.5% of "the vote," which is probably because she ran in the last presidential election in 2004.
Ms. Khakamada was followed by Soviet female cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova (8.6%), Duma Deputy Speaker Lyubov Sliska (5.1%), and Ella Pamfilova, chairman of the presidential Human Rights Commission (4.8%).
Although 3.4% of Russians said they were willing to vote for another woman, the presidency would have still gone to Ms. Against-All who received 39% of the vote.
Even if Russian men were deprived of a right to vote, the pollsters suggest, current political attitudes would remain largely untouched. In a virtual presidential election, Vladimir Putin would gain 53.5% of Russian women's votes.
