Gazeta
Chubais Attack: A Signal To The System
The recent attempt on the life of Anatoly Chubais, the head of national electricity monopoly UES Russia, has brought uncertainty back to Russia's political reality, Andrei Ryabov, scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center, tells Gazeta today.
Chubais is still a significant figure in Russian politics. If criminal structures are convicted of trying to murder the head of the powerful electricity giant, one has to question how effectively the law enforcement system is working. All the efforts made over the last few years to improve it may have failed, as even in the most troubled years of Russia's post-Soviet history, criminals did not dare to target people like Chubais.
If the crime were politically motivated, then it would be appropriate to say that such ways of resolving disputes are characteristic of countries where state authority is weak and the elite is divided. Russia has a power vertical that incorporates all political institutions and controls every conflict, so every institution knows what is permissible. In this system, Chubais could have been marginalized if required without breaking any rules or staging a scene from an action movie.
Instead, Russia's political and business arena might be affected by powerful underground developments that cannot be translated into action within the existing framework - for example, the increasing tendency toward a redistribution of assets, or the alienation of certain political forces that feel so marginalized that they have to resort to criminal ways of resolving conflicts.
In any case, the attempt is a signal to the whole system of power that the recently built structures are far from clean. If things go on developing this way, the elites will cease to see the system of power as legitimate. Still, there has been no better way in history to make the state and its institutions stable than by the transparent and competitive resolution of disputes through parliamentary or judicial institutions.
Gazeta.ru
Experts: Crisis In Navy's Nuclear Deterrent Can Be Ended
In 2005, the Russian Navy will receive the latest 4th generation Project 955 Borei (Boreas) strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN). The construction of the series' lead ship, the Yuri Dolgoruky, is now being completed in the Severodvinsk Engineering Plant's (Sevmash) docks alongside its twin-brother, the Alexander Nevsky, which was laid down last March. It will leave the shipyard in five to six years. Both vessels, combined in the long term with a third submarine, will become the backbone of the Navy's nuclear deterrent. The submarines will be armed with Bulava-M ballistic missiles, torpedoes and anti-aircraft missiles, reports Gazeta.ru.
The Navy's nuclear deterrent is in deep crisis, but experts believe it can be ended by resuming the construction of strategic nuclear submarines and equipping them with new missiles.
There is little reliable information about the Bulava. Experts say it uses solid fuel and is intercontinental. It can be equipped with several nuclear warheads, including the latest models that can change trajectory on their own. The missile is most likely an upgrade of the celebrated Topol-M. A demonstration of its capabilities took place in 2004 in response to the U.S. government's announcement that it would deploy missile defense systems in Alaska.
There is also little information about the new SSBN. It is to have 12 silos for the new missiles. Rumors claim the latest sonar and navigation systems will be installed on the submarine and the nuclear power plant also will be new.
Rear-Admiral Anatoly Shlemov, the chief of the Navy's shipbuilding department, said the state defense order included over 30 ships and vessels. Shlemov said Sevmash alone had completed all its work under the 2004 defense contracts, 85% of which had been paid for by thestate. The Bulava development program was being financed in full.
"This trend is inspiring," Shlemov said, adding that for the first time in years, the state defense order was approaching the level of the state armament program.
Moskovskiye Novosti
What Future For The Ryzhkov-Kasparov Project?
Chess champion-turned-politician Garry Kasparov and independent Duma lawmaker Vladimir Ryzhkov are candidates for the leadership of a new democratic party. Committed to promoting a fair presidential election in 2008 and preventing either a third term for Vladimir Putin or the election of a handpicked successor, their Committee 2008 is most likely to be the core of a new liberal political movement, even if Yabloko and SPS prefer a merger to dissolution, writes a weekly, Moskovskiye Novosti.
While the champions of the new project targeting liberal voters claim that between 20% and 40% of Russians are ready to support "a decent party of genuine, not discredited democrats," polls suggest their real support might be significantly lower.
According to the Levada Center, 10% to 11% of Russians are inclined toward liberal ideas (not certain parties and names). Meanwhile, other pollsters, notably the Public Opinion foundation, report that many Russians name Putin and Zhirinovsky, rather than Kasparov, Ryzhkov, Khakamada, or Yavlinsky, as being among the nation's leading democrats.
In other words, the liberals' niche on the Russian political stage is only 5% to 7% of the vote and they have little opportunity to expand their support base in an election, because their media connections and electioneering resources are too weak to counter the Kremlin's propaganda machine.
As "live" opposition using every non-violent and legitimate opportunity to undermine the authorities seems to be the only viable form of opposition in today's Russia, new opposition entities need to portray themselves as being as radical as possible. And the Ryzhkov-Kasparov project's political prospects will be judged on this radicalism, as soon as it becomes a reality.
Noviye Izvestia
United Russia Could Split Up
Amid growing talk of an imminent split in United Russia, a deputy speaker of the State Duma, Oleg Morozov, last week tried to allay the fears of his fellow party members by announcing that new political entities would only emerge from United Russia after the 2007 parliamentary elections, Noviye Izvestia writes.
Analysts believe, however, this was just sugar coating for a pill prepared for the party's bureaucracy. In fact, they suggest, new political movements will start separating from United Russia as soon as this year - otherwise too little time will be left before the 2007 election.
United Russia, as the party of power, risks living for one political season, as most similar political projects do. Transformation by 2007 is on the party's current agenda, as dangers remain, partly because voters could remember the poorly conducted welfare overhaul and surging prices for communal services.
Alexei Mukhin, the director of the Center for Political Information, cites an allegedly prepared project on splitting United Russia into three separate political parties to be headed by popular regional leaders. These structures, he says, are designed to cover the entire political spectrum, from communists to liberals. Each of them is expected to easily negotiate the 7% eligibility barrier to subsequently unite again into the Duma majority. All efforts are now focused on taking command of these new entities.
However, political analyst Boris Kagarlitsky says there is no guarantee that the new parties will be successful. At the latest election, United Russia relied heavily on pro-presidential slogans and Vladimir Putin's popular support, as its own leaders were incapable of securing votes. United Russia has no such leaders yet, the expert says, and, accordingly, "they could set up three or five parties,and still not win the election."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Gazprom Intends To Bolster Its Positions In Georgia
The Georgian leadership is continuing talks with Gazprom on selling its gas pipeline system to the Russian natural gas monopoly.
Gazprom press secretary Sergei Kupriyanov has said the gas monopoly "will help ensure that the Georgian pipeline operates normally, as it requires considerable investment," Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
However, the Georgian government's plans for the main gas pipeline unexpectedly came in for sharp criticism not only from the opposition and parliament, but also from the United States.
U.S. Ambassador in Georgia Richard Miles explicitly recommended leaving the pipeline in state ownership, because a monopoly would emerge in the country if it were sold. The ambassador also stressed the political significance of the gas pipeline. By "a monopoly" he meant Gazprom, and "political significance" stronger positions for Russian capital in that region, which is not something America wants to see.
Kakha Bendukidze, Georgia's state minister for economic and structural reforms, has said the upcoming privatization drive will create competition for the U.S.-supported project of laying a South Caucasian Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline and will lead to its profitability falling. "The U.S. concern is easy to understand - it wants no rivals," he said.
The opposition in Georgia is sure that Bendukidze, a Russian businessman in the past, is behind the idea of selling the natural gas pipeline to Gazprom. David Gamkrelidze, the leader of the New Right opposition faction in the Georgian parliament, says, "Bendukidze is lobbying the interests of his Russian friends in every way. Georgia already depends greatly on Russia for electricity, and if natural gas dependence is added to that, Georgia's sovereignty may disappear."
Izvestia
Experts: Government Failing To Take Reform Opportunity
Russia is enjoying astable macroeconomic situation, which can be seen in economic growth, an improvement in living standards and a reduction in poverty. World Bank analysts recently published these optimistic conclusions in their annual report. However, the analysts are convinced that the government is failing to make full use of this situation for conducting reforms, Izvestia writes.
Yuri Danilov, a senior macroeconomics adviser at the Center for the Development of the Stock Market, says the only thing that clouds the generally positive picture is the unpredictability of inflation. He also says structural reforms have not been completed, which means the country cannot effectively use the situation to improve living standards.
The World Bank's director for Russia, Kristalina Georgieva, agrees with this. Due to the need for structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth, she believes the government cannot afford to be self-complacent even given high profits from oil sales. She also points to the remaining serious structural tasks, from reforming the housing sphere and public utilities, which is due to the incomplete transition from one type of economy to another, to developing forms of state-private partnership.
In the opinion of Yaroslav Lissovolik, an economist with Obyedinyonnaya Finansovaya Gruppa (United Financial Group), structural reforms involve considerable spending. The current safety net thanks to high oil profits means that these expenses can be compensated. In a more difficult period, this will be impossible. In many key industries, for example, the natural gas industry, reforms have not even taken on any real form.
Statistics show that the gap between the incomes of the 10% richest and the 10% of the poorest Russians is growing. Their incomes differ by 14.8 times now. However, Lissovolik is sure that means that the rich stand to gain most of all from macroeconomic stability rather than that the poor will suffer more.
