Russia thinks that the Middle East settlement and the development of the region should be the priority tasks of international politics. But the US is spotlighting the development of democracy there. There is an apparent link between the two processes, but can they progress without due regard for the growing Islamic movement?
In conditions of continued Arab-Israeli confrontation, an accelerated development of democracy in Arab countries enforced by external forces can turn out to be counterproductive. At the same time, this may encourage the real Arab democracies to become more interested in a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict and fight extremism and terrorism more actively.
The election in Palestine, the reform in the election legislation in Egypt, and the first municipal election in Saudi Arabia show that the bulk of Arab leaders are aware of the objective necessity to carry out political and economic reforms, if only for preserving their power.
But the mentality of Arab societies is not ready for such major change. The Arab public frequently interprets globalization and related modernization and reforms, the main direction of which is determined by the West, as an attempt by Western powers, primarily the US, to recarve the political map of the Middle East and establish their domination there. Worse still, this interpretation of reality is confirmed by the US policy in the region. As a result, the sincerity of the Arab leaders' democratic sentiments is questionable and puts the real secular advocates of liberal reforms in the region in a difficult situation regarding the conservative ruling elite and the growing Islamic pro-reform movements.
The spokesmen of the so-called political Islam are more energetically demanding the legalization and development of their involvement in the political life of Arab countries. Moving ahead of Arab leaders, the heads of Islamic movements have become aware of the scale and depth of the imminent change. This is why Muslim Brothers are organizing demonstrations in support of political reforms in Egypt, and Hamas is becoming an active player on the legal political scene in Palestine.
The failure of plans to create an Islamic caliphate, the narrow ideological base of extremism, and the absence of a universal socio-political program forced political Islam to quickly adjust to the new regional realities. Some ideologists of the moderate Islamic movement (Egyptian Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradhawi, or Rashid al-Ghannouchi, leader of Hizb al-Nahda Renaissance Party of Tunisia) are trying to gear Islam to democracy, to "democratize" it. They call for abandoning violence as a method of political struggle, denounce terrorism, suggest creating an "Islamic democratic state," support the principle of free parliamentary election, are reviewing the idea of the divine nature of power and the role of women in society, and sometimes act as champions of human rights.
But the pro-reform movement in Islam and its slogans have provoked alarm at the different poles of Arab society. Many Arab leaders believe, with good reason, that free democratic elections may bring Islamists to power. They also fear a possible, even if temporary, union of Islamists and left-wing liberal forces. At the same time, the secular democratic forces are wary of Islamic reformers, seeing them as rivals in the democratic struggle for power.
But the dangers of the legal involvement of Islamic leaders in Arab politics are not as big as they are presented. The experience of Turkey and Kuwait shows that the work of representatives of Islamic movements in democratic political institutions and the struggle for the electorate inevitably smooth over their radicalism and extremism. On the contrary, the absence of truly democratic reforms in different spheres of life in the Middle East is maintaining the traditional "conflict potential" of the region and generating a new package of problems on this basis.
Besides, a substantial part of Arabs, above all young people, share the views of liberal Islamic reformers, though to a different degree, and are ready to follow them. And democratic reforms and modernization programs are designed above all for young Arabs, who are more responsive to new ideas. Ignoring the feelings and aspirations of this part of Arab society and leaving it at the roadside of progress would precipitate the failure of truly democratic change.
The main problem of the reforms, which the Arab countries and their international sponsors will come across soon, is the need to combine secular reforms, with elements of Western values, and Muslim modernism, with the traditional Islamic notions and ideas.
In conditions of globalization, a crucial political instrument of the countries that claim global leadership should be assistance to development, including in the Arab East. From this viewpoint and taking into account the aforementioned regional realities, Russia should promote relations with inter-Arab organizations, both secular (Arab League) and religious ones (Islamic Conference). The streamlining and development of such relations would reinforce Moscow's international standing and allow it to more effectively uphold national interests and strengthen its stand in G8. This is especially important in view of the forthcoming Russia's chairmanship of the Group.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
