Some day 100 million Russians will have to face 1.5 billion Chinese, the analyst warned. He described this possibility as a disaster, especially provided the low population density in Asian Russia.
China, a country known to have long harbored territorial claims on some regions of Siberia and Russian Far East, is part of the poor south of the planet. The expert argues it would be naive to think that the five billion people living in the south will never want to live as well as people in the north, and that they will never be tempted to translate this desire into potentially aggressive action.
Vishnevsky says the Russian elite fails to recognize that the country is in the same boat with Europe, U.S., and Japan, and treats the country as a particular power that can afford to choose between China and the West. While Russia might live as a peer with Europe, this is not the case with China. China will swallow up Russia easily, if the latter fails to deal with it as part of a single Russia-Europe entity.
The expert describes the terrorist attacks, particularly September 11, that swept the world at the beginning of the new century as forerunners of future bitter conflicts. While a third world war is unlikely, as there are no conflicting superpowers, undercover continent-wide wars of the poor against the rich remain a real possibility. As the water begins to boil, the richer nations must use the safety valve to avoid a global explosion.
The only option is to enable some of the population to move from the south to the north. An immigration policy has to become a strategic priority for the government. However, the Russian authorities have so far done little in this area, whereas officials have frequently aired anti-immigration views.
Now that the problem is real, the elite should respond at last.
