Scenario one: imminent disintegration. This is probably the worst-case scenario for Russia's authority and security. The Commonwealth's disintegration will mean the opening of an international "tender" for the re-institutionalization of the territory. Judging from the current balance of forces in the world, the winner is obvious. The United States will most likely make every possible effort to create an "axis of good" in the former Soviet Union. Russia's chances of emerging as the victor or at least increasing its role there will depend, primarily, on the internal situation in the country after the 2008 presidential elections.
Scenario two: bolstering a smaller CIS using Russia's and China's resources. The models and timetables for implementing this idea might differ, including the possibility of merging such structures as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) into one organization. This would allow Russia and China to create a new integrated territory from Belarus to China and, therefore, gain additional advantages in geopolitical and economic competition with the West. The major disadvantage of this scenario for Russia is that China could dominate the new entity in the future.
Scenario three: the partition of the former CIS territory into separate projects with Russia's participation. The disadvantages of this scenario are potential increased competition with the West and the orientation of such projects primarily toward economic cooperation. The obvious advantages, though, include geo-economic and regional specialization, which will stimulate the project's development regardless of the ruling regimes in member countries. In addition, this scenario is designed to uphold the interests of small and medium countries in Central Asia and other regions, bolstering their sovereignty. The latter would help eliminating suspicions of Russia's "imperial" intentions.
