Russia, unless it alters its policy, may become an even more independent center, but one of weakness rather than strength.
Now, in order to cover the conceptual vacuum in Russia-EU relations, the two bureaucracies have thought up an idea of signing documents on four common spaces: a common economic space, external security, internal security, and culture, including education.
For want of something better, these documents might be signed. But the cover provided by the spaces could create a false impression that all is well, which will inevitably lead to new frustrations. The EU could use the spaces to obtain concessions from the Russian side.
Another danger of agreements is that they may supersede work on a new fundamental treaty on Russia-EU relations.
What should Russia do in this situation?
First, it should hold a broad discussion, including with Europe, and decide for itself whether or not it wants to be part of Europe, albeit an individual part. The EU, too, should sort out its relations with Russia.
Second, a crash program to train specialists on the EU should be launched at once.
Third, we ourselves should begin drafting a treaty to replace the 1994 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, without letting a legal or political vacuum emerge.
Fourth, the spaces can be given a legal form, but without any concessions and only when they are ready for signing. Lastly, these spaces should be documents paving the way for a new treaty, not replacing it.
