Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Russia And Europe: Difficult Rapprochement
Relations between Russia and Europe are now facing a new and difficult challenge. The elections in Ukraine made it plain that all former Soviet republics may join NATO and be drawn into the European Union's orbit within a few years. Sergei Karaganov, chairman of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, shared his views on Russia's relations with Europe with Rossiiskaya Gazeta.
Russia, unless it alters its policy, may become an even more independent center, but one of weakness rather than strength.
Now, in order to cover the conceptual vacuum in Russia-EU relations, the two bureaucracies have thought up an idea of signing documents on four common spaces: a common economic space, external security, internal security, and culture, including education.
For want of something better, these documents might be signed. But the cover provided by the spaces could create a false impression that all is well, which will inevitably lead to new frustrations. The EU could use the spaces to obtain concessions from the Russian side.
Another danger of agreements is that they may supersede work on a new fundamental treaty on Russia-EU relations.
What should Russia do in this situation?
First, it should hold a broad discussion, including with Europe, and decide for itself whether or not it wants to be part of Europe, albeit an individual part. The EU, too, should sort out its relations with Russia.
Second, a crash program to train specialists on the EU should be launched at once.
Third, we ourselves should begin drafting a treaty to replace the 1994 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, without letting a legal or political vacuum emerge.
Fourth, the spaces can be given a legal form, but without any concessions and only when they are ready for signing. Lastly, these spaces should be documents paving the wayfor a new treaty, not replacing it.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
The Future Of The CIS: Three Scenarios
Post-Soviet territory is rapidly shrinking, as some regional countries prefer integration with the European Union and close ties with the West to cooperation within the CIS. Therefore, a legitimate question arises: What is the future of the Commonwealth of Independent States? There are three realistic scenarios, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Scenario one: imminent disintegration. This is probably the worst-case scenario for Russia's authority and security. The Commonwealth's disintegration will mean the opening of an international "tender" for the re-institutionalization of the territory. Judging from the current balance of forces in the world, the winner is obvious. The United States will most likely make every possible effort to create an "axis of good" in the former Soviet Union. Russia's chances of emerging as the victor or at least increasing its role there will depend, primarily, on the internal situation in the country after the 2008 presidential elections.
Scenario two: bolstering a smaller CIS using Russia's and China's resources. The models and timetables for implementing this idea might differ, including the possibility of merging such structures as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) into one organization. This would allow Russia and China to create a new integrated territory from Belarus to China and, therefore, gain additional advantages in geopolitical and economic competition with the West. The major disadvantage of this scenario for Russia is that China could dominate the new entity in the future.
Scenario three: the partition of the former CIS territory into separate projects with Russia's participation. The disadvantages of this scenario are potential increased competition with the West and the orientation of such projects primarily toward economic cooperation. The obvious advantages, though, include geo-economic and regional specialization, which will stimulate the project's development regardless of the ruling regimes in member countries. In addition, this scenario is designed to uphold the interests of small and medium countries in Central Asia and other regions, bolstering their sovereignty. The latter would help eliminating suspicions of Russia's "imperial" intentions.
Kommersant
Russia Pensions Off Missiles
Today, the Strategic Missile Force of Russia, acting on the defense minister's orders, will start liquidating two divisions in Kartaly, the Chelyabinsk region, and Kostroma. Kommersant reports that the number of missile divisions will be slashed from 15 to 10 by 2010 and the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) on combat duty will fall from 496 to 313.
The main reason for the ICBM cuts is old age, as some of the missiles were produced in Ukraine in the Soviet era. The collapse of the Soviet Union put an end to their production and the missile group's renewal process.
Those missiles produced in Russia are growing old too. The current 270 mobile ground-launched solid-fuel missiles RS-12M Topol (SS-25 Sickle in NATO classification) may be slashed to 144 in five years. At the same time, 89 new Topol-M missiles (64 RS-12M2 and 15 RS-12M1) are to be put on combat duty, but this is nearly two times fewer than the number of ICBMs to be slashed (136).
According to Lieutenant General Vitaly Linnik, deputy commander of the Strategic Missile Force for armaments, "the removal of ICBMs whose service life has expired from combat duty is proceeding according to plan and will not affect the combat readiness of the Force."
The Force has 496 ICBMs, including 226 silo-launched (86 heavy missiles R-36MUTTH and R-36M2 Voevoda, 10 medium missiles UR-100NUTTH, and 40 light missiles RS-12M2 Topol-M) and 270 mobile ground-launched missiles RS-12M Topol. By 2010, the Force may have no more than 313 ICBMs, including 154 silo-launched (40 R-36M2 Voevoda, 50 UR-100NUTTH, and 64 RS-12M2 Topol M), and 159 mobile ground-launched missiles (144 RS-12M Topol and 15 RS-12M1 Topol M). The number of warheads on the ICBMs will be reduced from 1,770 to 923.
Politichesky Klass
Expert: Demographic Crisis Threatens Russia With Disaster
Russia's population, already too small for the large territory the country occupies, is likely to fall by a third by 2050, a leading Russian demographer, Anatoly Vishnevsky, says in an interview with a monthly magazine, Politichesky Klass.
Some day 100 million Russians will have to face 1.5 billion Chinese, the analyst warned. He described this possibility as a disaster, especially provided the low population density in Asian Russia.
China, a country known to have long harbored territorial claims on some regions of Siberia and Russian Far East, is part of the poor south of the planet. The expert argues it would be naive to think that the five billion people living in the south will never want to live as well as people in the north, and that they will never be tempted to translate this desire into potentially aggressive action.
Vishnevsky says the Russian elite fails to recognize that the country is in the same boat with Europe, U.S., and Japan, and treats the country as a particular power that can afford to choose between China and the West. While Russia might live as a peer with Europe, this is not the case with China. China will swallow up Russia easily, if the latter fails to deal with it as part of a single Russia-Europe entity.
The expert describes the terrorist attacks, particularly September 11, that swept the world at the beginning of the new century as forerunners of future bitter conflicts. While a third world war is unlikely, as there are no conflicting superpowers, undercover continent-wide wars of the poor against the rich remain a real possibility. As the water begins to boil, the richer nations must use the safety valve to avoid a global explosion.
The only option is to enable some of the population to move from the south to the north. An immigration policy has to become a strategic priority for the government. However, the Russian authorities have so far done little in this area, whereas officials have frequently aired anti-immigration views.
Now that the problem is real, the elite should respond at last.
Gazeta
Ruslan Production Project Needs $1 Billion
Russia and Ukraine have drafted a business plan to resume the serial production of the world's largest cargo plane, the Antonov An-124 Ruslan.
According to the plan, the first 15 Ruslans will be assembled at the Ulyanovsk-based Aviastar-SP factory in the Volga region. Serial production will start in 2007, writes Gazeta.
However, the business plan fails to deal with financial problems. The first production stage alone will require more than $1 billion.
Production of the world's biggest cargo plane was halted in 1992 because Aviastar-SP could not pay its electricity bills. Few people believed then that the oversized-cargo market would become the most successful segment of the global freight-traffic market within a few years. In fact, even though production of the Russian-Ukrainian cargo plane stopped 13 years ago, its ability to transport up to 150 tons of freight has left it unrivalled in a market segment worth hundreds of millions of dollars every year. The USAF C5-Galaxy plane, which has a smaller load-carrying capacity, rarely carries commercial payloads.
It remains unclear who will finance the project. "We hope to attract budgetary appropriations, as the national aircraft-industry development program until 2015 includes resumed Ruslan production," Yelena Yeleseyeva, a spokeswoman for Russia's Volga-Dnieper company, said. According to her, both Volga-Dnieper and Polet, which have ordered An-124 cargo planes, do not have the appropriate funds.
Igor Garivadsky, the deputy director of the Federal Industry Agency, says it will take about $250 million to prepare the Aviastar-SP factory in Ulyanovsk for resumed An-124 production.
Freight company representatives believe that, as An-124-100 planes carry 15-20% more freight every year, Ruslan aircraft will remain in demand for the next 15-20 years.
Vedomosti
Coca-Coal Takes Quarter Of Russian Juice Market
Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling and Coca-Cola have reached an agreement on the joint acquisition of Multon, the leading juice producer in Russia, Vedomosti reports.
The deal has been approved by Russia's Federal Antitrust Service (FAS) and is to be approved by the European Commission, a spokesman of which said the decision would be made by April 22. By getting Multon, the multinational will acquire 25% of the Russian juice market and become the country's largest producer of alcohol-free beverages.
Coca-Cola is the world leader in the production of alcohol-free beverages, with a turnover of about $22 billion. It owns 24% in the Greek Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company (HBC) with a turnover of $5.7 billion.
The final figures for the deal and the size of the stake have not been disclosed. Marat Ibragimov, an analyst with the UralSib financial company, assessed Multon at $700 million, his colleague form Aton Alexei Yazykov set the value at $500 million, and Alexander Svinov of Alfa Bank thinks the deal was worth $600-650 million. But a source close to the negotiations said the buyers paid no more than $500 million.
According to Business-Analitika, the Russian juice market is worth more than $2 billion and will grow by 5-10% in the next two years. In October 2004, Multon controlled 25.6% of the market and its sales that year accounted for $336 million.
The next potential buyer of juice assets in Russia is PepsiCo, say analysts, which may buy Nidan, which is said to be worth$350-400 million.
