According to Russian analysts, President Islam Karimov, who is criticized by the West for infringing upon democratic freedoms, will resolutely quell such unrest.
"The Uzbek regime, which has resolutely crushed all attempted resistance in the past, will do the same today," professor Andranik Migranyan from the Moscow Institute of International Relations believes.
Andizhan rebels, who seized a number of key administrative buildings, and who released local prison inmates, called on Russia to mediate the conflict for the sake of avoiding bloodshed.
Troops have moved into the city, Andizhan sources noted. Andizhan is located in Fergana valley that links Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Unlike Kyrgyzstan, no revolutionary situation has so far shaped up in Uzbekistan. For their own part, Kyrgyz elites became discontent with weak president Askar Akayev in conditions of developed democratic institutions. Akayev was overthrown as a result.
"There is no revolutionary situation for lack of external influence and clear-cut discontent of national elites," Migranyan added.
On the contrary, Sergei Mikheyev from the Center for Political Technologies believes that some Uzbek forces would like to overthrow Karimov or to destabilize the situation.
"Karimov no longer offers well-balanced support for local elites. Consequently, inter-clan clashes are possible. Moreover, Uzbekistan is seriously influenced by Islamists and drug barons. Islamism and drug barons are one and the same thing today," Mikheyev told RIA Novosti.
Talking to the mass media, the instigators claim that they are linked with the Akramiya organization that was established by Akram Yuldashev. Yuldashev was sentenced to 15 years in prison for extremism and terrorism. However, local human-rights activists are saying that he is a political prisoner. Twenty-three Akramiya members have stood trial in Andizhan since February.
Mikheyev is also sure that Karimov will use force in order to prevent riots from spreading.
"Karimov is now making it clear that the preservation of power is his main goal. Karimov will re-establish law and order, disregarding the price," the expert on Central Asia believes.
