"Revolutions on the post-Soviet space are caused by internal reasons. The external factor is less important," Belkovsky said at a RIA Novosti press conference arguing against the popular opinion about foreign influence.
Belkovsky named ten mechanisms leading to power shift according to the scenario of "color revolutions" which had already occurred in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Among them are the closed power vertical blocking the inflow of fresh forces, people's mistrust in rulers, the lack of public belief in future prospects, ethnic conflicts, the presence of the opposition and alternative leaders and the unwillingness of law enforcers to use weapons.
"Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are facing the greatest revolutionary threat," Belkovsky said.
According to him, the suppressed unrests in Andizhan (Uzbekistan) were the precursor of a revolution in Uzbekistan which may occur in two years.
President Karimov failed to form an ideology and Islam will fill this vacuum, the expert said.
He said that experienced politician Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan's President) could propose some revolutionary project to avoid people's unrests.
Russia belongs to the second risk group, Belkovsky said. The key factors of this group are the closed power vertical, indirect gubernatorial elections and the merger of bureaucracy with the political class.
"Prevention of a revolution in Russia and prevention of Russia's collapse are the same thing. A revolution may occur in Russia if everything collapses," the expert stressed.
In his words, power shift in Russia is possible via parliamentary and presidential elections. Belkovsky predicts the victory of the left-wing patriotic bloc.
Azerbaijan also belongs to the second group, he said adding that no revolution threatened it so far.
However, Belarussian and Turkmen Presidents Alexander Lukashenko and Saparmurat Niyazov who are sharply criticized by the West seem to be unshakable rulers, Stanislav Belkovsky said. Their charisma guarantees their political immunity. In the expert's opinion, these "dictators" should be ready for political conspiracies.
"Power shift in these countries may occur if it is masterminded by their closest retinues," Belkovsky concluded.
