MOSCOW, August 15 (RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle). Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov appears to have a plan to retire slowly from the political scene and on his own terms.
His announcement that he will head the United Russia party list for a seat in the Moscow City Duma election slated for December 4 is a gambit allowing him a say in who will succeed him as mayor and putting to test recent amendments to Russia's election laws.
Announcing earlier that he would not seek re-appointment as Moscow City mayor - a position equal to a regional governor - after his current term ends in 2007, Luzhkov is now angling to control the city's notoriously sleeping legislature to preserve his influence and promote the interests of United Russia.
Under the new legislation governing regions, which mandates the nomination of governors over direct popular election and that each nominee must be agreed with the local legislature, the Moscow City Duma is set to play an important role in who will become Luzhkov's replacement. As United Russia aims to be the predominant political force in Russia's regional legislatures, a position it currently holds at the federal level, Luzhkov and the Kremlin have good reason to continue their marriage of convenience.
The political deal in the offering is quite simple. Since his original "operation successor" was derailed when his favored candidate for the mayor's position, Valery Shantsev, was appointed governor of Nizhny Novgorod, Luzhkov was reminded that he alone will not choose who follows him - it will be a joint venture with the Kremlin and United Russia. Luzhkov has many reasons to agree to this change of plans. He will have the opportunity to influence who succeeds him on the condition that the candidate is a United Russia party member.
Moscow City election rules work to the advantage of United Russia, receiving 34.4% of the Moscow vote in the 2003 State Duma elections. Twenty of the 35 seats are elected on party lists - 15 seats are slated for individual races - and to win a seat a party must garner at least 10% of the vote. For the election to be valid, a 20% turnout is required, lowered from the previous 25%. Given past low voter turnout, Luzhkov is virtually assured to win a seat heading the United Russia list. After winning a seat, it is quite possible that Luzhkov will resign as mayor, to become speaker of the city Duma, in favor of a Kremlin nominee who will be able to muster enough votes in the city legislature controlled by United Russia.
Luzhkov will get what he wants - a graceful departure from politics and a successor who will respect his legacy. But what will the Kremlin and United Russia get in return besides a smooth political transition in the country's capital? With the 2007-2008 election season quickly approaching, Luzhkov is positioned to boost United Russia's political fortunes at the expense of other parties.
Luzhkov, re-elected mayor in 2003 with 74.8% of the vote, remains popular with Muscovites and far more popular than United Russia. Few doubt Luzhkov will be able to "deliver" Moscow to United Russia in the December 4 election and, in doing so, set the political tone for the 2007 parliamentary election and the 2008 presidential ballot to the advantage of United Russia.
The Moscow City election may also turn into "primary" to gauge the relative attractiveness all political parties, particularly the opposition. With the nationalist party Homeland (Rodina), the Communists, and the liberal-conservative party mulling big name candidates to run in the city election, United Russia will get a taste of what it can expect from voters and the relative strength of the opposition.
Luzhkov's revised "operation successor" plan is also a Kremlin gambit. Moscow's mayor is not a Kremlin insider; he is a Kremlin ally who limited his political ambitions long ago. Luzhkov will put his formidable political machine into over-drive to advance the nationwide interests of United Russia. All Luzhkov wants in return is his continued control (if only informally) of the nation's capital. Luzhkov is getting the better end of the deal.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
