MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Marianna Belenkaya.) "I am convinced that we should create conditions in which all ethnic and religious groups in Iraq will find consensus" on the constitution, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in Sochi on August 29 at the joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
In this way Putin commented on the completion of the Iraqi constitution, which had provoked acute debates among the Iraqi political elite.
The problems encountered in the process turned the spotlight back to Moscow's suggestion of holding a conference of Iraq's political forces attended by international intermediaries, aimed at finding consensus on the constitution.
The Russian diplomats advanced the idea as soon as the Saddam Hussein regime was toppled in spring 2003. The importance of the idea was recognized at the international conference in Sharm El Sheikh in November 2004. But it has not been implemented before the parliamentary election in January 2005 or after it, although it was the best time for doing it: the election removed the Iraqi Sunni, the most influential religious minority that had ruled the country for decades, from politics. But the Russian suggestion remained unheeded, as there was a promise of a simple solution to all of the Iraqi problems.
The new Iraqi leadership tried to involve the Sunni into the political process, inviting them to take part in drafting the constitution. But the current situation shows that all was in vain. None of the 15 Sunnite members of the constitutional committee has signed the draft. Now the Sunnite leaders are calling on their supporters to vote against the draft at the October 15 referendum.
They have learned the grim lesson of the parliamentary election, when the Sunnis, most of whom boycotted it, lost the chance to play an active role in politics. The constitution will not be approved if the bulk of the people vote against its draft in three Iraqi provinces. The Sunni, who could not influence the election, have a possibility to block the constitutional referendum.
In effect, the political process in Iraq is marking time, despite the external signs of progress (the election and the drafting of the constitution), threatening to slide into another tragedy.
If the constitution is blackballed in October, Iraq will be pushed to the edge of another political crisis (at best) or a civil war (at worst), not to mention the fact that social and economic prosperity and security will remain an impossible dream in a country with power paralysis and without a constitution. Prosperity and security are the most important goals for the Iraqis and may become the crucial factors determining their choice. The fierce battle for votes will begin now.
Besides, Iraq should not only adopt a constitution but also preclude the possible future claim that the people voted for it because they had no other option. The constitution should leave no loopholes for such debates that have split the country after the draft constitution was submitted to parliament.
Now is the time to resume analyzing Moscow's idea of the international conference. International intermediaries can help the political forces in Iraq find consensus, otherwise the referendum on the constitution will be useless.
"There should be complete accord of all social groups at the voting on the constitution. Until we create such a situation, the danger of military resistance will not go away," President Putin said.
Moscow hopes that the international community will have no differences on this issue. Russia, the United States, the European Union and Iraq's neighbors hope that stability will be restored in the country, which means that all of them need consensus on the Iraqi constitution.
