MOSCOW, September 14 (RIA Novosti)
Politichesky Zhurnal
PUTIN SET TO BECOME RUSSIA'S MOST SUCCESSFUL PRESIDENT
Vladimir Putin is not obsessed with power and so far has a good chance of being remembered as the most successful president in the history of Russian Federation. Putin and his advisers are reluctant to make amendments to the constitution necessary to enable the president to run for the third term as this decision would be fraught with enormous problems.
First of all, Russia's international political reputation would be damaged, and the interests of business tycoons would suffer, as a result.
Secondly, the Russian opposition would receive a clear-cut agenda, which is now lacking.
Moreover, a "third-term" political action plan has not yet taken root.
On September 5 Putin assured foreign political scientists in the Kremlin that the national Constitution would not be amended and that he had no intention of running for the third term.
The Kremlin must therefore start looking for Putin's successor in the near future, so that members of the incumbent power structure could stay in command. Alternative scenarios will continue to be lobbied and kept at hand, thereby reducing the political system's safety margin considerably.
There are some indications that the power-transfer scenario will be launched quite soon.
According to many analysts, this is highlighted by the draft 2006 federal budget, which was submitted by the Government to the State Duma in late August. Budgetary appropriations will total 5.46 trillion rubles ($192.39 billion), and the federal authorities are already calling the document the first "development budget" since 1991. Budget expenditure is to be 4.27 trillion rubles ($150.46 billion). Most importantly, federal-budget revenues will soar by 59% compared to 2005, while non-interest income is to go up by 24.4%. But nationwide labor productivity has not increased and the objective of doubling GDP still appears to be unrealistic.
The 2006 budget, doubtless, aims to mobilize resources in order to preserve the state-power system.
At the moment Putin's main challenge is to choose his Number Two man, who would co-author a "social breakthrough program," and to do it no later than by mid-2006.
Izvestia
CHINA MAY LEAVE WEST SIBERIA WITHOUT WATER
There may be catastrophe in several regions of Siberia if China completes the construction of a big canal in the Irtysh head. If China takes water from the river uncontrollably, the enterprises of West Siberia will stop, and major cities in Russia and Kazakhstan will have no tap water. Russian specialists claim China refuses to negotiate the problem.
The canal is designed to direct water from the Cherny Irtysh, a spring of River Irtysh, to a rapidly developing economic area in western China. China refuses to provide any information about the project. "A Chinese delegation was invited to a recent conference on this problem, but it did not come," said Ivan Yanovsky, head of the Irtysh Shipping Line.
Alexander Shcherbakov, department head of the Russian Environmental Agency for the Omsk region, said the planned diversion of water could have most serious consequences. Water intake areas in Omsk can rise above water level, leaving over one million people and dozens of enterprises in Russia without water.
The Eurasian Water Partnership, which took over the management of the Omsk water supply system for 25 years, said, "If China blocks the discharge of water from the Cherny Irtysh, the waterway in our territory will go down, which can lead to the inflow of oceanic water or moisture from the surrounding marshes."
China is currently using about 10% of Irtysh water, which would add up to about a quarter of the border water intake from the Cherny Irtysh by 2020.
"This is an international problem but China refuses to discuss it," said Leonid Polezhayev, the governor of the Omsk region. "The Irtysh is a trans-border river running for 4,500 kilometers and stability in a vast region depends on its well-being."
Vremya Novostei
GAZPROM TO SURVEY GAS RESOURCES ON SAKHALIN SHELF
Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom, fearing the loss of its gas export monopoly, will soon begin a geological survey of the Sakhalin shelf.
The concern did not have assets in that region but the program of comprehensive development of gas resources of East Siberia and the Far East, which Gazprom has drafted for the Ministry of Industry and Energy, spotlights Sakhalin gas reserves.
A year ago President Vladimir Putin approved Gazprom's takeover of the state-owned oil company Rosneft, which has a major oil asset in Sakhalin and the groundwork for developing gas projects. Rosneft-Sakhalinmorneftegaz owns 20% in Sakhalin-1 and controlling stakes in Sakhalin-4 and -5.
Exxon Neftegas Limited (ENL), the operator of Sakhalin-1, will start gas deliveries to the Khabarovsk Territory on October 1. The main aspect of the project is gas export, which can undermine Gazprom's monopoly of pipeline gas deliveries. ENL President Steve Terni said he was negotiating gas export with China but the route of the gas pipeline under the Sakhalin-1 project was undecided yet.
Gazprom will do its best to block independent gas export from Sakhalin-1. But to remain the one and only export channel, it should have either the exclusive right to the construction and ownership of the gas transportation infrastructure or join Sakhalin-1 and become export operator.
The gas monopoly's Sakhalin ambitions were thwarted by the failed takeover of Rosneft. However, Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of the concern's board, said in summer that Rosneft would be made an offer for a share in Sakhalin-1 that it would find difficult to refuse.
The possible recoverable reserves of Sakhalin-1 on the northeastern shelf are about 307 million tons of oil and 485 billion cubic meters of gas. Capital investment into development is assessed at over $12 billion.
Kompania
FISCAL MANAGEMENT OF OIL EXPORTS PROVES INEFFECTIVE
The Economic Development and Trade Ministry has proposed transferring oil export revenues to state coffers, if the oil price exceeds $27 per barrel. But this cannot lead to attaining the announced goal of increasing oil deliveries to the Russian market and to stabilizing gasoline prices in the country.
First, oil export will remain lucrative for oil producers even if the state keeps 100% of superprofits. What is new about this proposal is that the price is fixed at the point of $27 per barrel, when oil export is quite profitable, said independent expert Grigory Vygon. This means that nobody will give up the export of crude oil, provided all the other terms remain equal.
Second, the sale of oil products on the domestic market with the existing taxation system brings in significantly higher profits than oil export. But this situation has not led to a growth of domestic supplies, market overstocking and a subsequent decline in prices. Gasoline prices keep growing.
This paradox is easily explained. In the opinion of Grigory Sergiyenko, executive director of the Russian Fuel Union, it is caused by the obsolete oil refining system - if more oil is refined, the output of not only gasoline but also fuel oil begins to grow, while fuel oil is not in demand in Russia. Meanwhile, the export price of fuel oil is below the export price of oil. As a result, oil producers tend to make up for the loss by raising gasoline prices.
Third, the main problem contributing to the rigidity of the gasoline market is associated not with export but with regional monopolization. There is no oil market in Russia. Each company that has a refinery is, in fact, a monopoly in its area.
Therefore in the present conditions it is impossible to stop the growth of gasoline prices by a single measure. The whole system of supplying oil products in Russia needs restructuring and no easy solutions to this difficult problem should be sought for.
Vedomosti
POLITICS COMES BACK LIVE ON TV
The national TV channels are increasing political programs and bringing back live TV shows at the start of a new political season. TV people say that the interest in politics is growing. But experts are puzzled since at present politics is a wasteland.
"Live shows are magic for the audience, and we have decided to bring them back so as not to be asked why we do not have them," explains Dmitry Kiselyov, an anchor of the state-owned Rossiya channel, who during the presidential campaign in Ukraine headed the information service on ICTV, then believed to be controlled by Leonid Kuchma's son-in-law Viktor Pinchuk.
The TV people say the growing number of political shows is accounted for by popular demand. "We have had enough entertainment," says Mr. Kiselyov. Channel One has had to enhance the information block and political broadcasts because it had fallen behind the other national channels. The Rossiya Channel needs "a platform to cover every possible aspect of the authorities' position" whereas NTV is concerned with a particular segment of political information since "it is a significant component of the channel's revenues," says Sergei Piskaryov, Director General of NTV-Media, a company selling advertising slots on NTV and TNT. The audience of political shows "is seen as a perfect target by advertisers" and buying an ad slot is a tough job, states Mr. Piskaryov.
Experts outside the world of television are bewildered by such explanations. "Not only public opinion polls but also the election turnout numbers show that the long-term interest of Russians in politics is fading," says Valery Fyodorov, general director of the public opinion research company VTsIOM. "There is nothing new in politics," echoes Alexei Volin, formerly in charge of Russian government's foreign relations. "Either the channels know something we do not, and have been given an order to get ready, or in the absence of real political life it was decided to create a virtual one on TV screens so that the electorate could labor under the illusion that there is a choice."
