MOSCOW, September 14 (RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle). Viktor Yushchenko's decision to dismiss Yuliya Tymoshenko's government recasts Ukraine's domestic politics, and creates an opening for Ukraine and Russia to turn a new page in bilateral relations.
Most commentary on Ukraine's latest political turmoil has focused on internal politics, and the fracturing of the "orange" coalition that delivered Yushchenko the presidency (and Tymoshenko the government). Few seem to notice, however, that Ukraine's foreign policy, particularly in regard to Russia, has been impacted just as dramatically. Yushchenko has freed his hands at home and will have little choice but to proceed with a rapprochement toward Russia's Kremlin if Ukraine is to avoid the same kind of regional tensions that divided the country during the "Orange Revolution."
Tymoshenko's dismissal from government, and her decision to go into opposition against Yushchenko, have essentially split the original "orange" coalition. The meaning of this impact will soon become evident as the country approaches the March 2006 parliamentary elections. Tymoshenko's decision to form her own coalition is poised to fracture the "orange" vote in western Ukraine, while continuing to alienate the Russian-speaking east. Her political ambitions have created an important opportunity for Yushchenko at home, and for the future of Ukrainian-Russian relations.
Yushchenko's appointment of Yury Yekhanurov as acting prime minister has been hailed as a shrewd political move to de-politicize government economic policy. However, the fact that he is an ethnic Russian from eastern Ukraine is just as important in geopolitical terms. The more Tymoshenko and her supporters attempt to hijack the ideals and program of the "Orange Revolution" through their time-honored use of anti-Russian rhetoric, the more eastern Ukraine will look for alternative candidates and parties. Yushchenko's mission is to derail Tymoshenko's ambitions, to ensure that these alternative candidates and parties become aligned with his own campaign - and this is where the Kremlin comes into the picture.
It is universally agreed that the Kremlin's approach to and involvement in Ukraine's presidential election was misguided, and helped fuel the "Orange Revolution" as a pro-Western and anti-Russian popular uprising. Ukraine's forthcoming parliamentary election provides an opportunity to right a historical wrong. It is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will openly support its "own" candidates and parties. However, indirectly supporting Yushchenko and his team in eastern Ukraine would benefit both countries.
A Yushchenko-Putin embrace sounds odd at first blush, but it makes political sense. The Kremlin made the mistake of supporting Viktor Yanukovych instead of the forward-looking and reformist candidate Yushchenko during the elections last year. From a political perspective, Yushchenko and Putin have always had a lot in common - the aims of breaking the grip of the oligarchs, economic modernization, and integration.
One other shared policy goal is a united and strong Ukraine. During and since the "Orange Revolution," pundits and many politicians have talked about Ukraine moving toward the West. Few realize that Ukraine is not actually going anywhere - it will always stay between the European Union and Russia. Both the EU and Russia desire a stable, united and prosperous Ukraine. To make this happen, Yushchenko needs Ukraine's eastern neighbor on his side. To keep Ukraine together during what is expected to be a rancorous parliamentary election campaign, Yushchenko will have no choice but seal a rapprochement with Russia.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
