KABUL. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov). A parliament (Jirga) will be re-established in Afghanistan after a forced interval of more than 32 years.
Elections to the bicameral parliament and provincial councils will be held throughout the country on September 18.
About 6,000 candidates, 12 % of whom are women, have been put on the election list. Out of the 249 seats in the lower chamber (a chamber of people's representatives or the Wolesi Jirga), 60 will be allocated to women. The upper chamber (the Senate or the Meshrano Jirga) will have 102 seats, with a 25% quota for women. Virtually all of the political movements in Afghanistan have been granted the right to take part in the elections.
As expected, Younis Qanooni, who hopes to become speaker of the lower chamber, has become the leading political figure in the run up to the elections. Analysts think that Qanooni, who was the main challenger to Hamid Karzai in the recent presidential elections, is bound to establish a parliamentary majority. He has already set up a voting bloc consisting of 17 parties. This bloc will be aimed primarily against President Karzai and his team.
The parliamentary elections will be a test of Afghanistan's political and social stability.
Re-establishment of legislative power should certainly promote the continuation of democratic reforms, economic recovery, and the development of Afghanistan as a sovereign state. The elections will also signify the success of the Bonn agreements on Afghanistan. This will be important for the international community, which in effect provided for the restoration of this Islamic state after many years of war and ethnic strife.
However, the situation in Afghanistan on the eve of the elections is not unequivocally positive. An increase in the numerical strength of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Coalition Forces and the expansion of the zones of their responsibility have not reduced the scale of armed attacks by terrorist groups. For this reason, more than 100,000 personnel from army units, the police and the people's guards will be tasked with protecting the 25,000 polling stations during the elections.
The political situation within the country remains complicated. As always, traditional Afghan problems continue to have a serious bearing on political stability in the country. Firstly, there is the struggle between the technocrats, who favor a secular state and democratic reforms, and the numerous warlords, who do not want to give up their privileges as "leaders of jihad."
Secondly, there is a struggle for power between national minorities residing in the northern provinces of Afghanistan (including Tajiks, Uzbeks and Khazars) and the Pushtun. The Pashtun consider themselves, and not without reason, to be the mainstay of the nation. This is a long-standing problem for the country and it continues to be as acute as ever.
Afghanistan is still ridden with social problems: unemployment, a lack of housing, and exorbitant prices for basic foodstuffs, such as rice, meat, and vegetables. There is an appalling gap between the very rich and the very poor. The poorer sections of Afghan society are showing little interest in the upcoming elections. Many are not concealing their disappointment with the country's national leaders, saying that, "they promised much but have delivered little."
When taken together, these problems pose a serious threat to the Karzai administration's policy of national reconciliation. Will the elections help remove these problems? Few local politicians are making optimistic forecasts.
