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A common market in Central Asia?

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MOSCOW. October 10. (RIA Novosti economic commentator Nina Kulikova) -- At their summit in St. Petersburg in early October the members of the Organization of Central Asian Cooperation (OCAC) made a decision to integrate their organization into another regional association - the Eurasian Economic Community (EURASEC).

Members of both organizations are former Soviet republics. The OCAC has existed under different names since the middle 1990s, uniting Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. In October 2004 they were joined by Russia. The OCAC was established to step up integration, and guarantee security and stability in the region.

Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan set up the Eurasian Economic Community in 2000 to create a common economic space: external customs borders of the member countries, united foreign economic policy, tariffs, prices, and other components of a common market.

Unification of the OCAC and EURASEC is prompted primarily by the need to streamline the process of integration on post-Soviet territory. The two structures were very much the same both in composition and operation. Until recently the only difference was that Uzbekistan was a member of the OCAC but not of EURASEC, while Belarus was a EURASEC member but not part of the OCAC. Now that Uzbekistan has applied for EURASEC membership, the two structures will become one.

Many experts believe that the EURASEC is more effective that the OCAC. In the last few years its trade and investment have been going up. This was not true of the OCAC, said Leonid Vardomsky, director of the Center for International Economic and Political Studies.

Igor Kirsanov, an expert from the Eurasian Heritage Foundation, said that the OCAC seemed to be stillborn. It was not particularly effective and few knew about its existence. In this context it is only natural that the OCAC was dissolved in a more dynamic and promising EURASEC. It has a strong integration center - Russia and Kazakhstan -- that are willing to turn it into an effective economic organization, said Kirsanov.

Changes in Uzbekistan's foreign policy have also played a role in the unification of the two structures. Having refused to conduct an international inquiry into the May events in Andijan, this Central Asian Republic was heavily criticized by the world's nations and subjected to U.S. and EU sanctions. Trying to break international isolation, Uzbekistan has stepped up its contacts with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and joined the EURASEC.

Other members also stand to gain from the decision made in St. Petersburg. Russia, for one, will strengthen its political and economic positions in Central Asia, said Kirsanov. On a par with Kazakhstan it may become a major economic player in the region, taking part in the establishment of the hydropower, transportation and food consortiums. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will benefit from the influx of Russian and Kazakh capitals and an opportunity to lobby their interests in Moscow and Astana, he said.

Some experts view this merger as a transition to a brand new level of cooperation within the CIS. Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of the Politika (Policy) Foundation, said that the centrifugal trends that prevailed in the CIS in the last 15 years, are giving way to centripetal forces, to a drive for unity.

Some experts believe that after merging the EURASEC will become more effective. Gulnur Rakhmatullina, a senior researcher of the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Studies, said that the extension of the EURASEC would facilitate the formation of a common market in Central Asia. Moreover, it is a major factor of stability and security in both Europe and Asia. The EURASEC members will be in a better position to jointly resist terrorism and religious extremism, she said.

Dmitry Plekhanov, an expert from the Institute of Comprehensive Strategic Studies, believes, however, that the merger of two organizations will not facilitate the achievement of the economic goals that the EURASEC set for itself at its inception. The difference of economic interests, and levels of economic and political development of its members will hardly allow a serious alliance, he said.

The unification of the OCAC and EURASEC will not upset the political equilibrium in the region. On the economic side, now that Uzbekistan has joined the EURASEC the prospects of a common market in Central Asia have become more realistic. Yet, many aspects of the future common market still remain rather vague.

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