MOSCOW, October 28 (RIA Novosti)
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
UZBEKISTAN TUNING UP TO RUSSIA - POLITICAL SCIENTISTS
Uzbekistan, which slammed the door when pulling out of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in 1999, is ready to return. Political scientists explain this intention of Uzbek leader Islam Karimov by a change of policy towards Russia.
They say events in Andijan are the reason behind this. The United States denounced the use of force to put down the May 13 revolt in Andijan, which led to loss of civilian lives.
These events certainly influenced Karimov's choice. Karimov demanded that the U.S. pull its air force out of the Khanabad base, where it was established as part of the counter-terrorist operation in Afghanistan, six months before Andijan. The reason was not the failure of the U.S. to pay for the base. Simply, Karimov started questioning the Americans' intentions after the "color revolutions" in Tbilisi and Kiev.
The Uzbek leader apparently saw that in case of a revolutionary situation in the country, similar to those in Georgia and Ukraine, Washington might refuse to help it, while Moscow and Beijing would do their best to assist him.
This is why Karimov stepped up relations with China, including within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO - Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), and joined the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC - Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan), a post-Soviet analogue of the European Union.
When the situation deteriorated in Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan was pushed to changing power, Karimov saw without any doubt that the time was ripe for choosing foreign policy priorities.
The Americans' withdrawal from Uzbekistan and its readmission to the CSTO (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) would benefit Moscow in the long run, as Moscow will have to take over responsibility for regional stability from the U.S. But can the Kremlin do it better than the White House?
On the other hand, Nikolai Bordyuzha, CSTO general secretary, said that Tashkent had not yet filed an official admission request.
Gazeta
DID TERRORISTS IN NALCHIK PLAN TO ATTACK THE KREMLIN?
The actions of Russian security-related services during the October 13 terrorist raid on Nalchik foiled a major operation comparable to the terrorist attack at New York and Washington on September 11, 2001. This is the conclusion of experts from the U.S. analytical center, Strategic Forecasting, StratFor. Russians are skeptical about this supposition.
According to StratFor's report, "Nalchik: The 9/11 That Wasn't," "the events in Nalchik apparently were supposed to be only the first phase of a plan that ultimately was to include flying explosives-laden aircraft into high-profile targets elsewhere in Russia." The possible targets of a force of "about 700 militants" supposedly were "the Kremlin, a military district headquarters and railway hub in Rostov-on-Don, a nuclear plant in the vicinity of Saratov, and a hydroelectric plant or dam on the Volga."
"We cannot say so far that the militants in Nalchik planned an attack at the airport," Mikhail Pankov, head of the Main Interior Ministry Department for the Southern Federal District, said commenting on StratFor's hypothesis.
In Nalchik, the militants attacked mostly buildings of security-related structures. According to the Prosecutor General's Office, if they had seized weapons stored there, they would have attacked many other targets in the city. This means that they had the same task as last year's attack at Nazran, Ingushetia - kill as many law-enforcement and security staff as possible, seize weapons (they snatched 1,200 from the Interior Ministry warehouse in Nazran), and expose the impotence of the law-enforcement officers.
Moreover, only an experienced pilot can fly a passenger liner, and the militants most probably did not have specialists who would have fuelled five planes and took off during fighting.
But even if they did that, all five planes would have been shot down by army aviation or air defense long before reaching their targets.
Vedomosti
RUSSIA OFFERS OIL FOR U.S. STRATEGIC RESERVES
Yesterday a top Russian official made a sensational proposal to the United States. As much as 700 million barrels of Russian Urals oil can be pumped into U.S. strategic reserves, said Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko. He even has a potential supplier in view, LUKoil, which, in his opinion, can well replace Venezuela as the main U.S. oil supplier. Experts, however, say that the plan is difficult to fulfill and unnecessary.
Today only two Russian companies, LUKoil and Rosneft, supply oil to America, but their share in total U.S. imports is small and does not exceed 2%, says Valery Nesterov, analyst with Troika Dialog. Theoretically, Russia could raise its share to 8%, or 50 million tons annually. But it is still unable to replace Venezuelan producers, he says.
LUkoil is ready to admit as much. One of the company's managers says that the project cannot be implemented without the Northern sea pipeline that would allow the oil major to export fuel to the United States by tankers from Murmansk.
Mr. Nesterov described the minister's statement as "strange." "So far Venezuela has shown no intention to stop or reduce its exports to the United States," he says. "As to LUKoil, it planned to enter the American market via Venezuela, not instead of it. Besides, this plan is unfeasible due to the absence of infrastructure and the uncertainty about the northern route."
The Russian pipeline monopolist, Transneft, is ready to construct the Northern pipeline from Kharyaga to Indiga simultaneously with the Eastern one, said the company's vice president Sergei Grigoryev. However, "LUKoil does not guarantee us pumping volumes, so we cannot launch construction," he explained.
Economists doubt that the initiative can be beneficial for the Russian economy. "We are already suffering from high oil prices," says Nikolai Kashcheyev, analyst with Vneshtorgbank. A huge influx of taxes from oil producers' windfalls has to be sterilized in the stabilization fund. "If we want to raise the price of Urals, how is it correlated with the tasks of the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry to contain inflation and strengthen the ruble?" he asks.
Vremya Novostei
CONGRESS CLEARS NASA TO PAY FOR SOYUZ RIDES
The U.S. Congress is in the process of easing one of the snags in the partnership between Roskosmos and the National Aeronautics Space Agency (NASA) of the United States. One of the most serious problems that stood in the way of the International Space Station project may be removed from the agenda soon.
This week Congressmen unanimously passed amendments to the Iran Nonproliferation Act, which bans commercial dealings between U.S. state agencies and Russia's space industry.
After the amendments are approved by the Senate and signed by President George W. Bush, NASA will no longer have to bother about bringing back to Earth in the spring astronaut William McArthur, the 11th and last American who under initial understandings between ISS partners was to have a free ride on Russia's Soyuz.
Although the anti-Iranian act remains intact, NASA is now cleared to pay for Soyuz rides, and the agency, as its administrator Michael Griffin hopes, will be able to buy Russian technologies and know-how needed for completing the ISS.
The hiatus in supplies to the station created by the Columbia disaster and the grounding of space shuttle missions could be filled, if partly, only by Russian spacecraft. But that technically simple decision suggested by Russia proved politically unacceptable to the U.S. At talks NASA officials constantly referred to their legislators who did not let them pay for the building of additional Soyuz craft and Progress freighters.
Hardened by American promises, the Russian Space Agency has received the news with reservations. Its press service said the proper response would follow when the amendments ran their course and NASA officially informed Moscow. It added that the absence of a political decision was no obstacle to negotiations on technicalities and so the ISS program would not suffer.
Kommersant
Vremya Novostei
SOK GROUP TAKES OVER AVTOVAZ
On October 27 Vladimir Kadannikov, 64, resigned as AvtoVAZ board chairman for reasons of old age. The most famous and influential auto industry manager stepped down because SOK Group, the second largest car manufacturer in Russia established ten years ago, now owns more than 60% of AvtoVAZ shares.
SOK Group executives began to influence the AvtoVAZ management more actively in the last few years. They now supply 37-50% of all AvtoVAZ accessories. It also controls the entire chain of car sales and the secondary spare parts markets. AvtoVAZ cannot unilaterally pull out of such cooperation because it would otherwise have to pay a fine of 14 billion rubles ($491.92 million, or _406.27 million) for terminating its exclusive spare parts delivery contract with SOK Group.
SOK Group has 44 specialized companies turning out different car accessories. It also controls the Izhavto and Roslada factories. The group mostly produces car accessories (90%) and motor vehicles (3%), earning a total of $2 billion last year.
Rumors of Kadannikov's resignation were circulated more than once. But his ouster came as a complete surprise for the Russian auto industry. "The company was dismayed by his resignation," an AvtoVAZ source noted.
All market watchers agree that Kadannikov could have suited any Russian authorities, including present-day and future leaders. They believe that the Kremlin will prevent anyone from taking over AvtoVAZ; and it will support the enterprise in order to convince everyone that Russia has its own car industry.
AvtoVAZ shares went up on the stock market, after news of Kadannikov's resignation was received. The price of ordinary shares increased by 10.64% to reach 738 rubles ($25.93, or _21.42) by the time the stock market closed. And preference stock cost 624 rubles ($21.93, or _18.11), or 12.22% more. Experts explain this by the fact that the old-time AvtoVAZ team has depleted its potential. Market players hope that the new management will increase the company's capitalization.
