MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Yuri Filippov.)
Russian and foreign commentators alike assess yesterday's reshuffles in the Russian government and the presidential administration as the beginning of the new election cycle. In this period the president is expected choose his preferred successor to run in the spring 2008 election. However, analysts are divided over the figure of Putin's successor. Will it be Dmitry Medvedev, the former chief of staff who has been appointed first deputy prime minister? This has strengthened his standing as the main overseer of Putin's "national projects" in healthcare, education, housing and agriculture. Or will it be Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who has been elevated to the post of deputy prime minister?
Either can become the frontrunner, depending on the situation in the country in the next few years and the balance between Russia's economic achievements and continued military confrontation in the North Caucasus.
On the other hand, yesterday's reshuffle could be a diversion, a false start designed to camouflage the appearance of a third and possibly many more candidates, until the finger is pointed at the one that would suit the president and the majority of the voters. After all, Putin may choose his successor but it will be the people who will elect him.
This is how Russia's first President Boris Yeltsin began Operation Successor. In spring 1997 he appointed two young reformers - Boris Nemtsov and Anatoly Chubais - first deputy prime ministers. A presidential future was predicted to both of them, especially to Nemtsov, but both soon resigned and buried their presidential ambitions.
However, their appointment turned the government into a public political arena where the nation's next political leader was to be nurtured. It seems the government has not lost this status to this day. The State Duma cannot assume this role because it is split politically, relatively unpredictable and has little influence on decision-making. The lower house mostly formalizes decisions or deals between influential lobbyists, hardly ever adopting decisions of its own. The presidential administration cannot become a political site either, because when the presidential staff enters into a political competition with each other, this is no longer an administration and policy but anarchy and disarray.
The government in Russia is a perfect site for rearing new leaders, as it has the resources and the administrative leverage, as well as public standing and a possibility of establishing an emotional contact with millions of voters. The Duma has plenty of publicity but often lacks resources, while the advantages of power in the presidential administration are reduced to zero by the impossibility of getting a public standing. Dmitry Medvedev, who has been head of the presidential administration for two years, gave only one big interview (to the Ekspert magazine) and wrote only one political article, for the British Financial Times.
The advance of Medvedev to the second highest position in the government and the upgrading of Ivanov's status have augmented the political role of the cabinet. If it is true that the new presidential cycle has begun in Russia, the government will soon become the nation's main political site. Accordingly, Medvedev's sphere of responsibility was described as "national projects." It is not just another presidential task for officials but a common political goal set to the nation. And the nation's progress to this goal is likely to be complemented with the appearance of a new high-profile politician.
