Moscow, November 17 (RIA Novosti)
VEDOMOSTI
Putin goes to Japan for investment and pass to WTO
The visit by President Vladimir Putin to Japan will not solve the Kuril problem, but Tokyo is expected to sign the protocol on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. Russian businessmen also hope to reach agreement with their Japanese colleagues on joint projects, including the development of the Kovykta gas condensate deposit and the Elginskoye coalfield.
"The Japanese used to link trade and economic ties to political issues, thwarting the attempts by the Japanese business to invest in Russia," said a Kremlin official.
However, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE) expects that the unprecedented business forum on November 21, to be attended by 400 Russian and Japanese businessmen, will open the door to new projects. RUIE president Alexander Shokhin hopes that President Putin and Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will name several priority projects, such as the construction of oil and gas terminals for energy deliveries to Japan and the joint development of the Kovykta field in the Irkutsk region of Eastern Siberia (prospected gas reserves over 1.4 trillion cubic meters and condensate reserves 95 million tons) and the Elginskoye coalfield in Yakutia in northeastern Siberia (prospected reserves of coking coals 2.048 billion tons).
In addition, Moscow expects Tokyo to coordinate Russia's accession to the WTO. It was expected to take place at the beginning of the year but the most crucial questions, such as import duties on Japanese cars, have been settled only recently.
The Kuril Islands problem will not be settled this time. Moscow's offer of the joint economic development of the islands is not acceptable to Tokyo. A Kremlin official said: "The discussion of the territorial problem in Japan is closely linked to political infighting." He does not envisage any progress on this issue in the next ten years.
"Japan's economy is stalling and needs a boost, which is why the Japanese will not hinder economic cooperation," said Boris Shmelev, head of the Center for Comparative Political Studies at the Institute of International Economic and Political Studies (Russian Academy of Sciences).
TRUD-7
Too early for Operation Successor
The latest reshuffles in the cabinet and the presidential administration have more to do with the president's control over the government rather than with the Problem 2008, writes Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Policy foundation and member of Russia's Public Chamber. Although everything is interconnected in politics, it is much too early for Operation Successor.
It would be pointless to begin it two and a half years before the presidential election. If the successors are named now, they will become the targets of attack by an army of opponents.
Experts have failed to predict any of the president's major personnel decisions, including the appointment of the speaker of the State Duma, the prime minister, the defense minister or the head of Gazprom. Do they expect to be given the name of the successor two and a half years in advance? This would be completely unlike Putin.
Presumptions about Operation Successor are based on the idea that Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov have been given a chance to take advantage of the improved financial situation of the state to solve all the problems concerned with carrying out the president's tasks and the reform of the military, and in this way to earn political points. In fact, their posts are fraught with dangers.
The implementation of these projects will be difficult and risky, for social reforms can provoke discontent among certain categories who may feel neglected compared to other sections of population. It will be equally difficult to improve the defense enterprises, most of which are lying down, without provoking social protests.
The latest personnel decisions made by the president are concerned with the country's survival and not Operation Successor.
NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA
Administrative reform suffers another setback
Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov has for the first time voiced his opinion on the cabinet reshuffles. Yesterday, while on a working trip to the Khanty Mansi area, he described the event as a positive development, adding that he did not "rule out" further government changes. He said it was not inconceivable that a fourth deputy prime minister may make his appearance in the White House.
Fradkov does not intend to propose any new structural changes in his cabinet to the president. However, despite the announced short-term moratorium on structural changes in his government, the prime minister cannot guarantee that they would not be initiated by the president, as it happened last Monday when Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov were made deputy prime ministers.
The recent changes in the government show that the administrative reform has again suffered a serious setback. Ministries and government departments are multiplying, and officials get more and more deputies. For example, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has announced his plans to introduce in his ministry the post of a fourth deputy in charge of work with the regions.
The uncertain success of the administrative reform is belied by the active reanimation of federal executive bodies, which had been proclaimed useless earlier. The State Council presidium reminded everybody of its existence by reinstating the government commission on road safety, which had been abolished in the course of the administrative reform.
The authorities are busy not only restoring their bureaucratic past, but also building up new structures. Fradkov does not rule out the establishment of a new body to coordinate the country's defense industry complex. And cabinet chief of staff Sergei Naryshkin does not preclude the emergence of several more new ministers and departments.
NOVYE IZVESTIA
United Russia rush law on parliamentary majority government
The State Duma United Russia faction plans to present a parliamentary majority government bill in two weeks. It stipulates the right to establish a majority government by a political party that has won federal parliamentary elections. First Deputy Speaker Oleg Morozov, who submitted this bill, said that the bill "provided for a partisan federal government." United Russia supported Morozov's initiative, while the opposition and independent experts believe that the party is trying to monopolize power.
The bill states expressly that the president will have the right to approve the candidacy of prime minister suggested by a party that has won general elections, or to suggest candidates of his own. As before, the State Duma will approve or reject all party candidates. The opposition will lose all influence because it will not win enough votes, if the ruling party receives the right to delegate candidates to the executive branch before the 2007 parliamentary elections.
"A procedure enabling the party of power to nominate ministers should also be formalized," Morozov said.
Politicians are divided on the United Russia initiative. "It is important that the federal government assumes additional responsibility," said Sergei Glazyev, head of the Duma's Rodina faction. But Glazyev is not sure whether United Russia wants to achieve this goal. "They are trying to monopolize power at any cost, but have no interest in answering for their actions," he said.
Alexander Ivanchenko, head of the Independent Institute of Elections, is convinced that the Central Elections Commission and the presidential administration will support Morozov's initiative. "A weak United Russia, which is apparently unable to make any decisions, is taking artificial measures in order to retain its monopoly," Ivanchenko stressed. The expert doubts whether they will be able to accomplish this objective because few people will vote for the party of power in 2007.
BIZNES
Russian-French space project: vehicle tests continue
The Central Specialized Design Bureau Progress has prepared a second experimental Soyuz-2 launch vehicle. The modernized model has been developed especially for the Russian-French Soyuz-Kourou project, which will allow Russia to keep its positions on the market of commercial launches and make $240 million a year at the very least.
According to Boris Melioransky, Bureau first deputy general director, the rocket will be sent to the Plesetsk space center to undergo tests before the end of the year. The first experimental launch of the Soyuz-2 took place at the end of 2004.
The modernized rocket will cost approximately $5 million more than its predecessor, or about $40 million. The increase is due to the installation of a new Russian control system (Soyuz craft had Ukrainian systems) and a new third-stage engine. The new engine will increase orbited payload by 15%.
"This is the continuation of the policy designed to minimize dependence on Ukraine in the defense sector," said a competent source in the space industry.
Under the Soyuz-Kourou project, the space center in French Guiana (north-eastern coast of South America) will be launching 60 Soyuz-2 spacecraft (three to four a year) over the period of 15 years. Russian revenues will amount to nearly $2.5 billion.
Additionally, the Soyuz-2 will be the main launch vehicle for the International Space Station program. Six out of 10 annual launches under the Federal Space Program are for the ISS. The United States will pay for two launches a year; it will be cheaper to pay Russia $80 million for two Soyuz craft than spend hundreds of millions on shuttle missions.
"In the medium rocket segment, the Soyuz-2 is the best option. It has no rivals either in China or in India," the source said. "The U.S. and Europe make only heavy rockets, and these cost over $100 million each." He said for Russian clients Soyuz-launching costs would be a fraction of the commercial price tag.
VOYENNO-PROMYSHLENNY KURIER
Will Aeroflot buy B-787 Dreamliners?
A recent tender for the best long-range passenger airliners may destroy the Russian aircraft industry because Aeroflot, the largest national airline, plans to buy 20 to 25 Airbus-350 planes or Boeing B-350 Dreamliners worth nearly $2.5 billion. The United States is putting pressure on the Russian government to acquire B-787 aircraft. Moreover, Boeing promises to hinder Aeroflot-Cargo company's plans to purchase McDonnell-Douglas MD-11 transport aircraft and to thwart its cargo traffic expansion strategy.
Russia's aircraft industry would continue to develop only if it cooperates with the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS) and Airbus. Boris Aleshin, head of the Federal Industry Agency, staunchly advocates political and financial support for the Russian Regional Jet (RRJ) program. On the other hand, Aleshin suggests that Brazil's Embraer EMB-145 planes be assembled on Russian territory.
Russia-EU aircraft projects would flop if Moscow chose the B-787 Dreamliner. EADS and Airbus are certain to withdraw their proposals if this deal is approved. In addition, the purchase of U.S. passenger planes by Russia indirectly subsidizes Boeing's military plane production program, which does not meet Russia's national interests.
A refusal to buy U.S. aircraft would help counteract Washington's efforts to expand its military and political presence in the post-Soviet space, an area of Russian national interests.
The state owns a controlling block of Aeroflot shares and can influence corporate aircraft purchase strategies to safeguard both Aeroflot's financial interests and Russia's political, military, geo-economic and industrial interests.
