Vedomosti
Putin goes to Japan for investment and a pass to the WTO
The visit by President Vladimir Putin to Japan will not solve the Kuril problem, but Tokyo is expected to sign a protocol on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Russian businessmen also hope to reach agreement with their Japanese colleagues on joint projects, including the development of the Kovykta gas condensate deposit and the Elginskoye coalfield.
"The Japanese used to link trade and economic ties to political issues, thwarting the attempts by Japanese business to invest in Russia," a Kremlin official said.
However, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE) expects the unprecedented business forum on November 21, which is to be attended by 400 Russian and Japanese businessmen, will open the door to new projects. RUIE President Alexander Shokhin hopes that President Putin and Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will name several priority projects, such as the construction of oil and gas terminals for energy deliveries to Japan and the joint development of the Kovykta field in the Irkutsk region of East Siberia (estimated natural gas reserves more than 1.4 trillion cu m and condensate reserves of 95 million tons) and the Elginskoye coalfield in Yakutia in northeastern Siberia (estimated reserves of coking coals at 2 billion tons).
In addition, Moscow expects Tokyo to coordinate Russia's accession to the WTO. It was expected to take place at the beginning of the year but the most crucial questions, such as import duties on Japanese cars, have been settled only recently.
The Kuril Islands problem will not be settled this time. Moscow's offer of joint economic development of the islands is not acceptable to Tokyo. A Kremlin official said: "The discussion of the territorial problem in Japan is closely linked to political infighting." The official said he did not envisage any progress on the issue in the next 10 years.
"Japan's economy is stalling and needs a boost, which is why the Japanese will not hinder economic cooperation," said Boris Shmelev, head of the Center for Comparative Political Studies at the Institute of International Economic and Political Studies (Russian Academy of Sciences).
Trud-7
Too early for Operation Successor
The latest reshuffles in the Cabinet and the presidential administration have more to do with the president's control over the government rather than with the Problem of 2008, writes Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Policy Foundation and a member of Russia's Public Chamber. Although everything is interconnected in politics, it is much too early for Operation Successor.
It would be pointless to begin it two and a half years before the presidential election. If the successors are named now, they will become the targets of attack by an army of opponents.
Experts have failed to predict any of the president's major personnel decisions, including the appointment of the speaker of the State Duma (the lower house of parliament), the prime minister, the defense minister, or the head of Gazprom. Do they expect to be given the name of the successor two and a half years in advance? That would be completely unlike Putin.
Presumptions about Operation Successor are based on the idea that Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov have been given a chance to take advantage of the improved state financial situation to solve all the problems concerned with carrying out the president's tasks and the reform of the military, and in this way, to earn political points. But in fact, their posts are fraught with danger.
The implementation of these projects will be difficult and risky because social reforms can provoke discontent among certain categories who may feel neglected compared with other sections of the population. It will be equally difficult to improve the defense industry without provoking social protest.
The latest personnel decisions made by the president concern the country's survival and not Operation Successor.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Administrative reform suffers another setback
Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov has for the first time voiced his opinion on the Cabinet reshuffles. Yesterday, while on a working trip to the Khanty Mansi area, he described the event as a positive development, adding that he did not "rule out" further government changes. He said it was not inconceivable that a fourth deputy prime minister might make an appearance in the White House.
Fradkov does not intend to propose any new structural Cabinet changes to the president. However, despite the announced short-term moratorium on structural changes in his government, the prime minister cannot guarantee that they would not be initiated by the president, as it happened last Monday when Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov were made deputy prime ministers.
The recent changes in the government show that administrative reform has again suffered a serious setback. The number of ministries and government departments is multiplying, and officials are getting more and more deputies. For example, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has announced his plans to introduce in his ministry the post of a fourth deputy for oversight of the regions.
The uncertain success of administrative reform is belied by the active reanimation of federal executive bodies, which had been proclaimed useless earlier. The State Council presidium reminded everyone of its existence by reinstating the government commission on road safety, which had been abolished in the course of administrative reform.
The authorities are busy not only restoring their bureaucratic past but also building up new structures. Fradkov has not ruled out the establishment of a new body to coordinate the country's defense industry complex. And Cabinet Chief of Staff Sergei Naryshkin has not precluded the emergence of several more new ministers and departments.
Novye Izvestia
United Russia rushes law on parliamentary majority government
The State Duma United Russia faction plans to present a parliamentary majority government bill in two weeks. The bill stipulates the right to establish a majority government by a political party that has won federal parliamentary elections. First Deputy Speaker Oleg Morozov, who submitted the bill, said it "provided for a partisan federal government." United Russia supports Morozov's initiative, but the opposition and independent experts believe the party is trying to monopolize power.
The bill states expressly that the president will have the right to approve the candidacy of prime minister nominated by a party that has won general elections or to nominate candidates of his own. As before, the State Duma will approve or reject all party candidates. The opposition would lose all influence because it would not win enough votes if the ruling party received the right to delegate candidates to the executive branch before the 2007 parliamentary elections.
"A procedure enabling the party of power to nominate ministers should also be formalized," Morozov said.
Politicians are divided on the United Russia initiative. "It is important that the federal government assumes additional responsibility," Sergei Glazyev, head of the Duma's Rodina faction, said. But Glazyev said he was not sure whether United Russia wanted to achieve this goal. "They are trying to monopolize power at any cost but have no interest in answering for their actions."
Alexander Ivanchenko, head of the Independent Institute of Elections, is convinced that the Central Elections Commission and the presidential administration will support Morozov's initiative. "A weak United Russia, which is apparently unable to make any decisions, is taking artificial measures in order to retain its monopoly," Ivanchenko said. The expert doubted whether they would be able to accomplish this objective because few people will vote for the party of power in 2007.
Biznes
Russian-French space project: vehicle tests continue
The Central Specialized Design Bureau Progress has prepared a second experimental Soyuz-2 launch vehicle. The modernized model has been developed especially for the Russian-French Soyuz-Kourou project, which will allow Russia to keep its position on the market of commercial launches and make $240 million a year at the very least.
According to Boris Melioransky, the bureau's first deputy general director, the rocket will be sent to the Plesetsk Space Center to undergo tests before the end of the year. The first experimental launch of the Soyuz-2 took place at the end of 2004.
The modernized rocket will cost approximately $5 million more than its predecessor, or about $40 million. The increase is due to the installation of a new Russian control system (the Soyuz craft had Ukrainian systems) and a new third-stage engine. The new engine will increase orbital payload by 15%.
"This is the continuation of the policy designed to minimize dependence on Ukraine in the defense sector," a source in the space industry said.
Under the Soyuz-Kourou project, the space center in Kourou, French Guiana (northeastern coast of South America) will be launching 60 Soyuz-2 spacecraft (three to four a year) over a period of 15 years. Russian revenues will amount to nearly $2.5 billion.
Additionally, the Soyuz-2 will be the main launch vehicle for the International Space Station program. Six out of 10 annual launches under the Federal Space Program are for the ISS. The United States will pay for two launches a year; it will be cheaper to pay Russia $80 million for two Soyuz craft than spend hundreds of millions on shuttle missions.
"In the medium rocket segment, the Soyuz-2 is the best option. It has no rivals either in China or in India," the source said. "The U.S. and Europe make only heavy rockets, and these cost more than $100 million each." He said for Russian clients Soyuz-launching costs would be a fraction of the commercial price tag.
Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier
Will Aeroflot buy B-787 Dreamliners?
(if it buys Boeing aircraft, that will destroy the industry)
A recent tender for the best long-range passenger airliners may destroy the Russian aircraft industry because Aeroflot, the largest national airline, plans to buy 20 to 25 Airbus-350 planes or Boeing B-350 Dreamliners worth nearly $2.5 billion. The United States is putting pressure on the Russian government to acquire the B-787 aircraft. Moreover, Boeing promises to obstruct Aeroflot-Cargo's plans to purchase McDonnell-Douglas MD-11 transport aircraft and to thwart its cargo traffic expansion strategy.
Russia's aircraft industry will continue to develop only if it cooperates with the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS) and Airbus. Boris Aleshin, head of the Federal Industry Agency, staunchly advocates political and financial support for the Russian Regional Jet (RRJ) program. On the other hand, Aleshin suggests that Brazil's Embraer EMB-145 planes be assembled on Russian territory.
Russia-EU aircraft projects will flop if Moscow chooses the B-787 Dreamliner. EADS and Airbus are certain to withdraw their proposals if this deal is approved. In addition, the purchase of U.S. passenger planes by Russia would indirectly subsidize Boeing's military plane production program, which does not meet Russia's national interests.
A refusal to buy U.S. aircraft would help counteract Washington's efforts to expand its military and political presence in the post-Soviet space, an area of Russian national interest.
The state owns a controlling block of Aeroflot shares and can influence corporate aircraft purchase strategies to safeguard both Aeroflot's financial interests and Russia's political, military, geo-economic, and industrial interests.
