MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov.) Iran has won a chance of reaching a compromise on its nuclear program at the new talks with the European Trio (Britain, Germany, and France). This time Tehran will have to cooperate with Moscow, and the talks may move to Russia.
The media report that the European Union and the United States have decided not to demand for the time being that Iran's nuclear file should be referred to the UN Security Council, which could have lead to international economic sanctions against Tehran. The IAEA Board of Governors were to discuss this issue at their upcoming session in Vienna on November 24.
At its previous meeting on September 24, the Board issued a tough resolution warning Tehran that its nuclear file would be referred to the UN Security Council if it did not put a stop to the uranium enrichment program. The resolution was supported by a majority vote, with Russia and China abstaining.
Some analysts believe that the U.S. and the EU (or the Trio, which represents EU interests at the talks with Iran) have taken Russia's position into account. On a par with China it is against the referral of Iran's file to the UN Security Council. This means that the Security Council will not impose sanctions against Iran because Russia and China, as its permanent members, have the right to veto its resolutions.
As a result, Moscow has been given more time to discuss with Tehran a compromise on Iran's nuclear program. The question is, why was Russia chosen for this role?
Moscow has wide experience of nuclear cooperation with Iran. In January 1995, Russia signed a contract with Iran to build a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant in Busher. The project has been delayed for technical and financial reasons but should be completed in 2007.
Russia is also considered Iran's biggest partner in military and technical cooperation, in particular, the number one supplier of conventional arms.
Finally, Russia and Iran have signed an additional agreement to the Busher project, under which nuclear fuel will not be delivered to the plant unless nuclear waste is returned to Russia. This is interpreted as an example of Moscow's ability to influence Iran, and perhaps, even find practical solutions to its nuclear problem.
To a certain extent this is true, and Moscow already has several proposals. The press quoted the details of one suggestion: Russia has offered Iran to keep its uranium conversion facility in Isfahan if it shipped hexafluoride gas (UF6) to Russia for enrichment and subsequent return to the Busher nuclear plant in Iran.
The two countries have been discussing this proposal for over a year. But Tehran has recently adopted a tougher position, and now insists that the whole cycle of uranium enrichment should take place on its territory. Tehran believes that a joint international venture for this purpose should be set up in Iran. In fact, it already has the nuclear underground facility in Natanz, which could be used for this purpose. It is this facility that is the source of the biggest concern for both the Americans and the Europeans, who are not likely to accept this plan. This is why they have offered Russia, Iran's best friend, to resolve the predicament on its own with the cooperation of the Trio.
At their meeting on November 24, the IAEA Board of Governors is unlikely to pass another resolution on Iran's nuclear program. It will probably address Iran with a joint statement.
For the time being, Moscow is optimistic about cooperation with Iran, at least on the official level. It is prepared to look for a compromise. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow does not rule out that the Iranian issue may be reported to the UN Security Council "if there emerges a real threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, primarily nuclear." Moscow believes this threat does not exist at present.
