Moscow, November 28 (RIA Novosti)
NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA
United Russia to lose its monopoly - experts
United Russia scored a landslide victory during the December 2003 State Duma elections and subsequently monopolized all power. All sociological services predict that the party is also going to win the forthcoming elections to the Moscow City Duma, and that its monopoly will expand still further. At the same time, all other political organizations, which are engaged in petty intrigue, cannot compete against United Russia. So, how will Russia's party system develop?
Oleg Kulikov, secretary of the Communist party central committee: "United Russia will increase administrative-political pressure, if it continues to assume responsibility for everything. The national situation will continue to get worse. Consequently, the party's state power monopoly will diminish; and it will gradually relinquish control over every structure."
Gennady Gudkov, United Russia deputy: "A monopoly on state power and over-centralization will inevitably cause an all-out political and economic crisis with unpredictable consequences. This is quite explainable because bureaucratic clans now control Russia. And a feudal-style state power model has asserted itself. I believe that a crisis will happen either in late 2008 or in early 2009, if this pessimistic scenario continues to be implemented."
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) leader: "Russia will always have a multi-party system. Four major parties will soon emerge, say, in 2007. They will take part in all elections, local elections included. The national parliament will always have three or four powerful factions. These factions will also establish coalitions in line with German-style patterns. A new Soviet Communist party will not appear because nobody wants this to happen. The single-party era is now history. This is why we should not fear any aspects of our past."
VREMYA NOVOSTEI
NOVYE IZVESTIA
Rodina punished for refusing to toe official line
Last Saturday, the Moscow City Court upheld the LDPR's (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) claim and decided to disqualify the Rodina party from running for elections to the Moscow City Duma. Its election campaign ad was judged to be inciting inter-ethnic strife. The ruling has created a complex political situation. Rodina leader Dmitry Rogozin promised to appeal to the Supreme Court. If it revokes the Moscow court decision, then the party, now at the focus of a sensational scandal, may get additional votes. By the Supreme Court confirming the ruling, the Kremlin will have to face a sufficiently popular force that may well join an irreconcilable opposition.
While earlier the Kremlin believed Rodina would opt for a place left of the political center, it is now obvious that it has decided to move "right of the right," that is, to play the nationalist card. And the authorities are not happy to have in the future a popular and tough political force (true, yet systemic) on this flank.
Alexander Ivanchenko, director of the Independent Election Institute: "Rodina has been punished because it has bet everything and refused to adhere to the behind-the-scenes agreements that election seekers agree to beforehand when dividing the outcomes of the elections. A Supreme Court decision will depend on whether or not Rodina will be accommodating."
Boris Kagarlitsky, director of the Institute of Globalization Studies: "Rogozin is being told that he has gone too far. He is trying to use the Moscow elections as starting point for the 2008 presidential poll. From the legal point of view the ban on Rodina to run is absolutely correct. But in Russian conditions it means infighting between one faction and another within the same establishment. The struggle against chauvinism and racism is employed to bring someone or another down a peg or two."
Sergei Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies: "The authorities are not pleased with the way Rodina has been evolving since the last parliamentary elections. It is becoming ever more influential and less manageable. Some people want to put cap on its growth."
KOMMERSANT
Moldovan President knocks on Kremlin doors
Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin, who had made a private two-day visit to Moscow, spent the weekend trying to organize a meeting with anyone in the Kremlin. He apparently wanted to smooth over a conflict with Moscow that is fraught with serious economic problems for his country.
A ranking source in the Russian presidential administration said that Voronin had "tried to organize a meeting with President Putin. When he was not allowed to go that high, he went down one floor to knock on the doors of the Security Council, the government and the Foreign Ministry. Nobody answered."
The Moldovan president has not been a frequent guest in Moscow in the last few years. After he refused to sign the Kozak Memorandum in November 2003 (a plan for the Transdnestr settlement drafted by Dmitry Kozak, then deputy chief of the presidential administration), Voronin came to Russia only for the joint functions of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
According to this newspaper's sources, President Voronin came to Moscow to try and smooth over the conflict that promises a difficult winter for Moldova. Moscow has approved customs barriers to agricultural imports from Moldova and limited the acquisition of Moldovan wines, the main export item of the republic. In 2006, Gazprom plans to raise its prices of Russian gas to world standards for Moldova, but not for Transdnestr.
Vladimir Voronin said it was an economic blockade and has appealed for help from the European Union and the United States. But the West, unwilling to worsen relations with Moscow, recommended the Moldovan president come to terms with the Kremlin. His first attempt has failed miserably.
BIZNES
Siemens gets Chinese bullet train contract
On November 25, Russian Railways (RZD) and Siemens AG signed a strategic memorandum of cooperation stipulating deliveries of high-speed German trains to Russia. The Russian transport monopoly believes that this document will help organize bullet train traffic between Moscow, St. Petersburg and other large cities. But Siemens has decided to sell 60 high-speed trains to China instead.
According to the memorandum's provisions, RZD will get the first Siemens bullet train in December 2007. The Russian side undertakes to create the required infrastructure along the Moscow - St. Petersburg railroad. High-speed German trains will start operating between Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, as well as along the Moscow - Kiev and Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod routes by 2010.
"Parties usually ink such memorandums when they have nothing definite to offer to each other and when they want to show their intention to continue cooperating. But it still unclear whether RZD and Siemens will sign their final contract," said Albert Yeganyan, a managing partner at the Vegas-Lex law firm.
The strategic memorandum became the first document to be inked by RZD and
Siemens after RZD top managers changed hands in June 2005. Both partners concluded a previous agreement in Hannover this April. According to its provisions, Russia was to have received 60 high-speed Siemens trains worth _1.5 billion. Moreover, Siemens should have submitted the initial train design by September 2005, thereby making it possible to conclude the final contract. However, the signing ceremony never took place because of Siemens' failure to provide the initial design, RZD said. In late September, RZD president Vladimir Yakunin announced plans to adjust the train contract and investment volumes. The November 25 memorandum says nothing about the number of Siemens trains or investment aspects, RZD noted.
RZD plans to order six, rather than 60 trains, while RZD-Siemens talks still go on. However, Siemens has already decided to sell 60 trains to China for about _1 billion.
VREMYA NOVOSTEI
Russia's defense industry faces another shakeout?
Hardly a day goes by without unofficial information being leaked that a ministry of defense industry is to be reinstated in one way or another. Even the name of the head of the new portfolio is mentioned - presidential envoy Ilya Klebanov (he led a similar structure in 1999-2003).
The assumption is that the new entity will take under wing all major defense enterprises manufacturing end user products. The ulterior motive for setting up a federal agency for defense industry is to curb armaments and military equipment prices that are growing by the hour. Comparable outlays by the Russian military buy one tenth the amount of weapons as, say India, for example.
The defense industry sector has been reformed every couple of years. The last move was to set up defense holdings in place of five abolished agencies. The original idea was to have more than 80 of them, while the current figure is under ten. They do not seem to satisfy top military brass, since each holding has a management company which dictates prices and skims off part of the receipts. Such an arrangement allows some in the defense industry to fend for themselves.
Many in the defense sector received the news of this new structure with skepticism. If only because it will be reportedly subordinated to the Federal Service for Defense Contracts, which is part of the Defense Ministry. Today this service only monitors the fulfillment of defense contracts, while the actual placing of contracts is the concern of the staff under the command of General of the Army Alexei Moskovsky, deputy defense minister (armaments). This allocation of duties is the product of the general's continuing duel with Andrei Belyaninov, the head of the Federal Service for Defense Contracts. The latter wanted to concentrate all cash flows involved in defense orders through his department and even take over the acceptance service, which includes more than 20,000 commissioned officers at defense plants. But since April all these facilities together with the money have been put under General Moskovsky's control.
IZVESTIA
Ordinary Russians to help privatize state-run companies
Russian citizens lack high-profit financial instruments because local bank deposit rates continue to decline and because the world's main currencies remain unstable. On November 25, Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref said that the government's anti-inflation program would enable ordinary people to privatize state-run corporate stocks. Experts, who like this idea, believe that Russian authorities will have trouble implementing it.
"We are now getting ready to privatize such large companies as Svyazinvest and Rosneft," said Gref. In his opinion, wholesale stock market instruments would enable people to buy shares at specialized shops and to profit through greater corporate capitalization and dividends. "The government will try and introduce these mechanisms next year," the minister added.
"The government ought to have created similar machinery 15 years ago," Yury Danilov, senior macroeconomics adviser at the Center for the Development of the Stock Market, stressed. "This attractive concept could help curb inflation," Kim Iskyan, head of research at MDM Bank, noted.
"The people of Russia can privatize Rosneft completely," Danilov stressed. The company has a value of $58 billion after consolidation. "And our citizens now have about $30 billion," Central Bank head Sergei Ignatyev said.
"It is technically and legally possible to implement Gref's proposals, but there is no political will," Danilov believes. According to Iskyan, this idea cannot be effectively implemented into reality because the population does not trust stock market instruments very much. "Russia's private investors are still in no mood to buy stocks for spare cash. Consequently, foreign investment funds and other structures profit from Russian securities today," Iskyan added. Some experts estimate that around 100,000 Russians are now playing on the stock market.
