MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Tatyana Sinitsina.) 2005 began very favorably for the Kyoto Protocol but has gradually changed from positive to pessimistic.
The first international project aimed at lowering man's pressure on the atmosphere and stop climate change may have no future. Its outlook for 2006 is grim, as many experts say the unique document is hanging in the balance.
There are many reasons for such pessimistic forecasts, said Sergei Kurayev of the Russian Ecological Center, who attended the recent 11th Conference of the 189 Parties to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Montreal.
"Take the no-budge stance of the U.S. administration, who does not want to hear the words Kyoto protocol," he said. "The Americans said before coming to Montreal that they would attend only the 11th conference of the Climate Change Convention but not the 1st Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. In my opinion, Russia's procrastination with drafting the institutional base for the protocol has had its negative effect too."
However, the parties have made progress in Montreal although delegates from 150 states fought tooth and nail to defend their interests, unwilling to budge an inch. But conference participants approved the so-called Marrakech Accords, which specify measures needed to put the protocol into effect, including how greenhouse gas emissions are measured, joint projects implemented, quotas traded, and so on. They also stipulate additional quotas for forest powers ("oxygen sink"), which concerns Russia directly.
Approval of the Marrakech Accords will give the green light to the protocol as an effective international document of the UN. However, the delegations have not coordinated the individual obligations of each party, without which no movement is possible.
Debates on beginning talks on the second stage of the protocol's obligations after 2012 proved extremely difficult. Parties involved in the issue have no common understanding of the talks' format and rules of procedure nor have they put forth any practical proposals. Eventually they decided to set up a special working group that would formulate future commitments and a mechanism of voluntary accession by non-Kyoto countries.
Montreal gave the Kyoto Protocol a chance to start working towards full capacity. But how large can this capacity be without the United States, China and India, who are the main emitters of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere? The chances of involving them in the Kyoto process are slim, and the enthusiasm of the European Union, even if supported by Russia, is clearly not enough.
Americans say that they are taking national measures to reduce dangerous emissions. And India and China claim that they need to catch up with the world's industrialized countries at all costs. This leaves little chance for the Kyoto Protocol.
