MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Romanov.) - The recent visit of Sergey Kiriyenko, head of the Federal Agency for Nuclear Power (Rosatom), to Tehran did not change much the situation, which has taken shape in the last few months around Iran's nuclear program.
The question of whether this program is peaceful or potentially military has not been removed. Russia's proposal to enrich uranium at a joint venture on its territory under IAEA control has remained unanswered.
The world has heard nothing new from Tehran. After the talks Iranian Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh said: "Regarding this joint venture, we have reached a basic agreement. Talks to complete this package will continue in Russia during the forthcoming negotiations." He added that the question had many political aspects.
Just as before, the Iranians have reserved for themselves a possibility of retreat, and are doing everything to stall time. But there is not too much time left - the situation will clear up before a session of the IAEA Board of Governors on March 6.
As expected, the Russian-Iranian talks have evoked a reserved response both in Russia and the rest of the world. "The Russian-Iranian basic agreement to establish a joint venture on uranium enrichment on Russian territory is a positive but not final step in the solution to Iran's nuclear program," said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the State Duma international affairs committee. "This agreement is just part of the solution to the problem, which Russia is trying to find. Russia is moving in the right direction."
U.S. President National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley has told CNN it is too early to say anything, because in such agreements the devil is always in the details, and time will show what comes out of it. This statement is well justified, just as the intention of Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso to find out more details about the Russian-Iranian joint venture during his forthcoming trip to Tehran. The response in other world capitals was very much the same.
Apprehensions about Iran are only natural because it itself generates mistrust with misdirected energy. Enough to mention almost 20 years of secret nuclear efforts, numerous statements by President Ahmadinejad about his desire "to erase Israel from the face of the Earth," and endless evasion of a straight answer to Russia's clear-cut IAEA-approved proposal of a joint venture. Alarm is further fuelled by statements of Iranian officials about Tehran's intention to reserve for itself the right to engage in small-scale, experimental nuclear enrichment on its own territory, in addition to work in the joint venture. In effect, this statement disavows the very idea of the joint venture. What's the point if uranium is upgraded both in Russia and in Iran?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a very clear statement on this score: "Tehran is still linking the formation of the joint venture with limited albeit national R&D effort on its territory... Russia cannot agree to build a joint venture on such terms because its very idea will vanish, and because it contradicts the February IAEA Board of Governors resolution, which urges Iran to stop any work on uranium enrichment."
In other words, the news about a breakthrough and a basic agreement reached in Tehran by Sergey Kiriyenko is an exaggeration, to put it mildly.
This situation is not likely to change by March 6 even if the international community compels Tehran to say the final "yes" to Russia and sign a joint venture agreement. Regrettably, the Tehran regime's word and signature are not 100% trustworthy.
To sum up, even in the best case scenario for all, the Iranian nuclear issue will simply go into another phase, which will be less seen by the public. IAEA experts and security services of many countries will be zealously controlling Tehran's compliance with its commitments.
Neither the U.S., nor Russia, nor Europe, nor Israel or any other country, for that matter, has the slightest desire to see the Iranian military carrying the "football."
