Moscow. (RIA Novosti correspondent Tatyana Sinitsyna)-- Birds have already started migrating, only being slightly hindered by the cold weather. It will soon get warmer, and birds will fly en masse.
This time their homecoming generates the flu phobia. What happened with Nature? What factors could generate a new, highly dangerous mutation of the flu virus? "Unfortunately, there is no answer to this question. Wild birds always carry the low pathogenic 16 flu strains, of which we know as of today. These strains are more active at one time, and less active at another. I think this is a natural process," says biologist Konstantin Litvin from the Bird Banding Center of the Institute of Ecology and Evolution at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Litvin attributes the genetically new strain of the virus - H5N1 - to the mutation of the highly pathogenic A virus type, which was a real headache for Asian countries in the past century. Under this theory, wild birds were the first to develop this virus. But an international group of experts in Beijing do not agree. They think that domestic poultry produced the virus, which later infected wild birds.
"Regrettably, the ecology of this virus has not yet been studied. An outbreak of avian flu in western Siberia last July perplexed Western experts. They launched a large-scale experiment for six months. A total of 25,000 wild birds were tested for the virus in Europe, and none of them proved to have it. But this January birds in the Baltic Sea suddenly started dying like flies. There is no migration in winter, which means that the virus was there, but the tests failed to reveal it," says leading researcher of the Wild Animals Health Center at the Nature Research Institute Yevgeny Kuznetsov.
This prompted the researcher to think that the flu was similar to AIDS. The avian flu virus and HIV have a phase when they cannot be detected by any tests. But when some unfavorable change weakens the immune system, or the ecology gets worse, the viruses wake up and begin their destructive courses.
Virologists believe that outbreaks are more likely to reoccur in locations, where they were registered before.
The virus can exist for months, all the more so in cold conditions, in or under ice. Researchers insist that hunters stop going after wild birds. It seems that government officials in Russia are fully aware of the risks as they work to draft a bill to ban spring hunting. Shooting birds will never help contain the spread of disease - they will simply flock away and carry the virus further. Besides, wounded birds will fall down and become prey to the fauna. This is one more way for the virus to spread, which eventually gets to the populated localities.
On the whole, experts approve of the comprehensive plan for the prevention of avian flu, drafted by the Federal Service for Oversight of Natural Resources. However, they are critical of its recommendation to scare birds in order to prevent their nesting on water close to dwellings. "Generally speaking, we should prevent nesting everywhere and by all means, shooting included, but this measure will be counterproductive. Any attempts to scare the birds away will simply help carry the virus further," says Yevgeny Kuznetsov.
Experts insist that we should face reality, and accept that avian flu is here to stay. The virus is very prone to mutation, meaning one strain may develop into another.We should dramatically change the conditions under which birds are kept not just at poultry farms, but also at homes. "We should bring contact between poultry and wild birds to the minimum. This measure plus vaccination is the main road to success. It is believed that here in Russia all poultry farms are isolated. But on February 23 experts from our Center inspected a big farm near Moscow and saw wild pigeons having a feast at the fodder storage! What kind of isolation is this?" says Kuznetsov.
Vaccination is another important measure. Two factories are already producing the vaccine against H5N1 - 5 to 7 million doses per week. At this rate it will take them five months to meet the demand for the vaccine. Why not involve 10 factories in this urgent task, and do it in a month?
The virus has been found not only in waterfowl but also in sparrows and crows, which always live close to man. If pigeons catch it, entire cities could be affected.
"Yet, avian flu is not a global disaster," says President of the Russian Bird Protection Union Viktor Zubakin. "It is possible that people may catch the virus from birds, but the likelihood of this happening is small. We first heard about avian flu ten years ago. It has killed 96 people since then. This is not an epidemic, nor pandemic. Please, don't destroy bird boxes or pigeon houses. It is enough to comply with basic hygiene - if you had contact with birds, wash your hands."
