MOSCOW. (Pyotr Romanov, RIA Novosti political commentator) -- Like every decent street fight, war almost always begins with a verbal duel. This is exactly what we are witnessing now.
Casting a menacing look at Washington, the Iranian President declares that Iran "will cut off the hand of any aggressor". Asked if his options included planning for a nuclear strike, President George W. Bush said with a sullen look: "All options are on the table. We want to solve this issue diplomatically and we're working hard to do so".
Moscow, Beijing and even to some extent the European Union are still hoping that at the last moment Tehran will give a broad smile and say that it has all been a joke - about Israel, enriched uranium and the "cut off hand". In this case Moscow, Beijing and the EU would certainly give a sigh of relief because a war is the last thing they want. Beijing needs Iranian oil, Moscow does not want hostilities near its borders, and, besides, Tehran is its old and friendly partner. And, finally, except for the U.K., which is still full of energy, Europe is too old and tired for life in the trenches.
I suspect that Washington, to the contrary, would not appreciate Iranian humor - the joke has gone on for too long, too much has been said, and the humiliating hostage saga still hurts. In addition, the White House is allergic to the Iranian ayatollahs, and on top of all that, almost convinced that Iran will get nuclear weapons sooner or later.
So, while Iran is engaged in virtual saber rattling, Mr. Bush and his aides are discussing in earnest the options for a military operation. As the French Liberation writes, the Americans have enough food for thought. The gloss of U.S. military superiority may clash with the Iranians' cunning decision to hide their labs underground. A surface strike may look very effective on TV, but would not give the slightest guarantee of success. So, one more Desert Storm won't be enough. All the negative international consequences of this option are obvious, but the result is not. Iran would heal its wounds and might give a much more effective response than the Iraqi army did, all the more so since the Iranian air defense force has recently received modern hardware.
Thorough inspection of every bunker on Iranian territory, aimed at finding secret labs for nuclear weapons production (if they exist at all) requires a surface operation. But it is not clear how long it would last and what toll of human lives it would take. Seasoned politician Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor of President Jimmy Carter, told the Washington Post that the use of force against Iran would spell the end of U.S. global supremacy, and that the war itself would drag out for 30 years. This is, indeed, food for thought.
Finally, even under the best-case military scenario, the White House would face a monumental task it would not be able to cope with, as its experience in Iraq has shown. The "messiah of global democracy" is at its worst when it comes to building democracy in an occupied country.
