During this time its tank units reached Bint Jbeil, the capital of this paramilitary religious organization, and captured two of its combatants near the village of Maroun Al-Ras. These were the first Arab prisoners seized by Israelis in the 12 days of the armed conflict.
In the meantime, Israeli aircraft bombed the southern districts of Beirut, and artillery continues to attack Hezbollah's infrastructure, destroying ammunition depots, terrorist training camps, and the posts from which the Arabs are firing at Israeli cities and settlements. News agencies report that Israel has already sustained military damage of one billion dollars, while for Lebanon the relevant figure is four billion. Israel's losses are 24 civilians and 12 servicemen, more than 350 civilians and nine men have been wounded. In Lebanon 377 people have been killed and several thousand injured.
Nobody can predict how long the hostilities will last. But the military aspect of the operation suggests some conclusions. Despite its overwhelming superiority, the Israeli army has been so far unable to suppress Hezbollah's irregular semi-guerillas. This is not a strictly Israeli problem - the U.S.-led coalition is not doing a good job in Iraq, either. The Russian army and security forces have also required support of the local population to rout international terrorists in Chechnya and Dagestan in the North Caucasus.
Semi-guerilla units numbering six to nine people are more mobile than regular troops. Armed with small arms, grenade launchers, and mines, they can set an ambush, rear and flank raids, mine roads, mount surprise attacks and quickly disappear. Due to this tactics, the Israelis have already lost in Lebanon five tanks, several armored vehicles, and three helicopter gun ships.
Although Tel Aviv attributes the loss of gun ships to technical problems and pilot errors, facts suggest otherwise. The Israeli air force did not have such accidents in peaceful times.
The situation is further aggravated by Hezbollah's capability to salvo fire by multiple launch rocket systems over Israeli northern cities and settlements. News agencies report that they have launched about 1,500 rockets at Haifa -- Israel's third biggest city and the closest to Lebanon. This is a huge potential both militarily and psychologically because it erodes the former confidence of the population and the army in an early victory over the adamant and treacherous enemy.
The Israeli army controls the bigger part of southern Lebanon, but this does not prevent Hezbollah militants from attacking Israel. Apparently, they fix portable salvo fire weapons in border areas, and aim them only approximately, which is effective enough for attacking city districts. The maximum range of 20 km is sufficient, too, all the more so if they know the distance to targets, and the elevation angle. They can quickly occupy a tentative firing position, set a sight (if an instructor has not yet defined it), fire and flee in no time. It is extremely difficult to track such a mini battery, or deal a pre-emptive or retaliation strike. The Soviet Army encountered similar problems in Afghanistan.
But on the other hand, if Hezbollah rockets reach the dwelling quarters of Haifa, the Israeli army must have something wrong with their systems of artillery reconnaissance and tactical air defense. Neither the Israeli Stinger man-portable air defense systems, nor Chapparel SAMs, nor the Vulcan MBTs are capable of protecting civilians against the 122-mm Grad rockets. As for drones, and artillery surveillance units, they do not seem to be effective against rockets.
This may explain the insistence with which Israeli aircraft are bombing Beirut, the cities and settlements in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah bases, training camps, and arsenals are believed to be located. F-16 fighters are not stopped by the fact that women, children and the elderly may perish in the attacks despite Tel Aviv's warning to them to go north, beyond the Litania River. Israel is trying to deal unacceptable damage on the enemy in order to force it into a ceasefire and negotiations from the positions of strength.
Israeli generals and politicians are turning a blind eye to the European media, which are criticizing them for inadequate and incommensurate retaliation, and imbalance in the use of force. A war has only one goal - to make the enemy lay down arms and surrender. As for the means of achieving this goal, this is another question. The main thing is that these are conventional weapons, which are not banned by any international agreements. The numbers of these weapons or the intensity of their use are not discussed. No force is too much if the enemy is still fighting back.
Will Israel force Hezbollah into surrender in the next few days? Will it agree to the mediation of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and go for ceasefire? This will depend on the ability of the Muslim radicals to offer resistance. The Hezbollah problem does not have a military solution. Guerilla raids, ambushes, salvo fire against Israeli cities will continue if the UN peacemakers do not arrive in a 20km zone on the border with Lebanon to protect it against the Grads. It does not matter whether these will be the troops of NATO, Russia, or the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It is important that they have a mandate of the UN Security Council, which would instruct them not only to maintain peace in the area, but also to enforce it. In this case northern Israel will be able to resume peaceful existence for an indefinite time to come.
But the Middle East problem will have to be solved through negotiations with due account of the interests of all parties concerned. The sooner the negotiations start, the more lives will be saved.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the editorial board.
