MOSCOW, August 15 (RIA Novosti) United Russia may get a rival / Why Kadyrov Jr. refuses to become Chechen president / Russian banks attract more foreign capital, stokes inflation/ Russian weapons vs. Israeli tanks in Lebanon
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Vedomosti
United Russia may get a rival
Russia's Party of Pensioners may join the union of nationalist Rodina (Motherland) and the Party of Life by the end of the year. According to the Kremlin, this union may eventually replace the pro-presidential United Russia.
A source in the Kremlin said the initial idea was to take the edge off Rodina, which could bring unpleasant surprises despite a recent change of leader. There are too many independent figures in the party, including in the regions, and former leader Dmitry Rogozin might attempt to regain control.
The Kremlin source said the union might replace United Russia if the party of power fails to accomplish its objectives, though not in the forthcoming elections.
According to the VTsIOM pollster, the electorate has no interest in the bloc of Rodina and the Party of Life. Only 3% said they would vote for it, 39% said its future was unclear, and 24% predicted it would be defeated at the 2007 elections to the lower house of Russia's parliament.
According to Dmitry Badovsky of the Research Institute of Social Systems, Pensioners may help the new party. "The Party of Pensioners has a proactive electorate, and its regional campaigns show that the party can attract local elite groups and take the new bloc's rating beyond the statistical margin of error," he said.
Badovsky said the new bloc would formalize the political landscape in Russia after the 2008 presidential elections. "United Russia cannot serve all interest groups, and now that the president's successor is being chosen, groups of influence acting contrary to [deputy head of the Kremlin administration Vladislav] Surkov are trying to create a left-wing populist center," he said.
Experts predict that the unification of the three parties will be painful. The Pensioners will lose their electorate, said Boris Makarenko of the Center for Political Technologies. Badovsky said the leaders of the three parties would "present a major problem," because "they are unknown entities without any charisma."
The new party may encounter problems, because it has too many independent figures and it is not clear which ideology may consolidate them and which tactics it will choose for the regional elections, the Kremlin source said.
Novye Izvestia
Why Kadyrov Jr. refuses to become Chechen president
Chechen Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov said Monday he was not ready to become the republic's president, and actually "dreams of quitting politics." But experts said that such a statement might instead have been prompted by the Kremlin's reluctance to nominate him to the post.
Sources said it was decided at a meeting between Kadyrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin last Wednesday that the prime minister forget his presidential ambitions for now. In return, he received a concession of great importance to the republic - the withdrawal of some federal troops from Chechnya in 2007-2008. He was also awarded the Order of Merit for the Motherland, Class 4.
The political rivalry between the current Chechen president, Alu Alkhanov, and the prime minister has been ongoing for months. "Alkhanov wants to keep the post of Chechen president for himself," said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information, "while Kadyrov wants to take over. So Kadyrov's statement that he is quitting politics is probably a tactical move to divert attention away from his ambitions."
Independent deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov described Kadyrov's remarks as "a political game designed to focus attention on himself and force the country's president to decide in his favor."
Some experts said the federal authorities have a long list of questions to ask the Chechen prime minister. "It is a sure bet that the Russian president is critical of Kadyrov," said Alexei Malashenko, an expert at the Moscow Carnegie Center, "but he sees no alternative to the man so far. Kadyrov does not want to be under Moscow's control, and if control is inevitable, it can only be the president's. Kadyrov's claims to absolute leadership have not yet been substantiated. It is improbable that Kadyrov will become president this year."
"Kadyrov could fill an important post in Moscow," said Alexei Mitrofanov, a State Duma deputy of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, "or even run for Russian president. He might win all the Muslim votes. We have 15-17 million Muslims, and that is no small number, especially if they vote as a bloc."
Kommersant
Russian banks attract more foreign capital, stimulating inflation
The Russian banking sector attracted 2.5-3 times as many foreign loans in the first six months of 2006 as it did last year, prompting experts to warn that the growth of foreign loans was becoming "alarming."
"This may develop into a serious problem," said Yulia Tseplayeva, an economist for the CIS at the ING bank.
The latest Russian Central Bank forecast predicts that the country will see a 32-36% increase in the money supply this year, compared with a previous forecast of 25-28%, and an influx of foreign capital into the Russian economy is one of the main reasons why.
The banking sector attracted $6.7 billion worth of foreign loans in the first quarter of 2006, out of the total of $13.1 billion, and preliminary data suggests that Russian banks borrowed a further $8 billion in the second quarter of 2006.
The banking sector in Kazakhstan, another CIS country, has also seen an increase in foreign loans. As a result, the IMF earlier this year described the country's banking system as "overheated," forcing the Kazakh government to downgrade the country's 2006 development forecast, particularly by reducing industrial growth from 7.3% to 5.2%.
Similarly, Russian banks have been attracting more foreign loans, increasing the money supply and stimulating inflation in the process.
Experts have said there are several reasons why Russian banks turn to foreign loans: First, the shortage of "long money," second, the improving credit ratings of both individual Russian companies and of Russia in general, and third, the accessibility of foreign capital, especially in light of a strengthening ruble, whereby banks profit by making repayments in a weakening dollar.
But analysts with the Economic Experts' Group have said Russian banks are unlikely to follow in Kazakhstan's footsteps, though they do risk becoming "overheated."
They said the Russian banking system is not consolidated enough to attract large foreign loans, while the world seemed to be entering a phase of "expensive money," making foreign loans more expensive every year.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Russian weapons versus Israeli tanks in Lebanon
Israeli politicians claim that modern Russian-made systems, allegedly covertly supplied to Hizbollah, were used against Israeli tanks in Lebanon. Russian defense companies accept this as free advertising of their weapons that can destroy "the world's best tanks" by the dozen.
Israeli daily Haaretz reported, citing sources in security services, that Russian-made RPG-29 Vampire antitank grenade launchers, which Russia had sold to Syria, were used in the fighting. The Russian Foreign Ministry has refuted the allegation.
"We are grateful to gentlemen from Tel Aviv [for the free advertising]," said a source at a Russian defense company, although he refused to comment on the RPG-29 issue. "I think this could facilitate [state-owned arms exporter] Rosoboronexport's contracts to sell firearms," he said.
In November 2005, after Hizbollah fighters had attacked Israel's army in an Israeli village, Israel delivered the tail of one of the missiles to Russia for examination.
"Even if Rosoboronexport had a missile fragment with plant numbers, it would never confirm that it came from the batch delivered to Syria, Iran, or any other country," said Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Military Forecasting Center at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis. "Tel Aviv, Washington and the European Union officially consider Hizbollah a terrorist organization, whereas it and [Palestinian group] Hamas are not on the recently published Russian list of 17 terrorist organizations whose operation in the country is prohibited."
Tsyganok does not rule out that the grenade launcher could have reached Hizbollah via Syria. "It is not a secret that weapons are easily smuggled from Syria to Lebanon," he said. "It is rumored that Syrian military leaders may be involved in organizing this regional black market."
Gennady Gudkov, a member of the lower house of parliament's security committee, also said these weapons could reach Lebanon via markets controlled by Syria.
