Considering Latvia's geographic location and the temperament of its citizens, it would seem that the political system of that country should be similar to Canada's. However, its undeveloped democracy, extreme populism of its leaders, and unjustified hopes of electors for the immediate resolution of all their problems in a short time are making Latvia more similar to Italy in the 1960s with its frequent government crises and loud political scandals.
Latvia's political landscape on the eve of elections has a number of other features. The groups of industrial and financial oligarchs are very powerful. The first one may be called "processors". Its head is Andris Skele, the founder and informal leader of the People's Party (Tautas Partija or TP), which is the dominant party in the government. The "haulers" are also wealthy. Their leader Aivars Lembergs has entered an intense political struggle for the post of prime minister as the head of the Union of Greens and Farmers (Zalo un Zemnieki Savieniba or ZZS). But their political influence is undermined by serious internal disputes, which some analysts qualify as the economic war to the last man. Such repressive state institutions as the Prosecutor's Office and KNAB (corruption prevention bureau) are involved in the fight.
Then there are the "bankers". It is rather difficult to qualify the personal and corporate passions of the leaders of the major Latvian banks, or identify their names. As a rule, they don't want to put all their eggs in one basket. But they can exert a tangible influence on the elections at the final stage of the race. One should not ignore the business elite which has formed around the Riga and Liepaja free ports.
The ethnic factor is playing a decisive role in the political alignment. All 15 independent years of right-wing rule have led to the situation where everyone votes for his ethnic kin. The society rests on the stereotypes Latvian politicians have been cultivating for many years. They are skillfully channeling the subconscious fear of everything Soviet into an anti-Russian phobia, and then escalating it into anti-Russian attitudes. In other words, local politicians are often presenting Latvian Russians as the Kremlin's agents who want to reverse history. In turn, their political opponents have been developing an inferiority complex in their non-Lettish electors - deceived and betrayed by the Letts.
On the whole, the ratio of Letts and Russians is 75% against 25%, which is gradually changing because of naturalization. However, although Latvia has 115,000 new citizens, their number is not yet exerting decisive influence on the change in the political climate.
The society's obvious disappointment is hardly concealed by the European Union. Latvia is still its poorest member, and the impressive growth rates are swallowed by the EU's highest inflation.
Unsatisfied with the Latvian reality, tens of thousands left Latvia for a better life abroad, primarily in Britain and Ireland. This economic phenomenon, which is inherent in all East European countries, may become an unpleasant political surprise for right-wing and many other Latvian parties in early October - a growing reluctance to vote and the departure of active electors for jobs abroad may tell on the election results.
According to polls, the New Era Party (Jaunais Laiks or JL) keeps the highest ratings. It has quarreled with most of its former right-wing partners, and has assumed a comfortable role of the opposition party, which criticizes and accuses everyone. But most people are getting tired of the contradictory political statements made by its leader Einars Repse, and the effect is often the reverse of what he wants to achieve. He does not have too many reasons to hope to increase
or even keep the numerical strength of his current parliamentary faction. He should be happy if 15 people are elected on his party list. Many Latvian politicians think that the JL work in the ruling coalition of the current Saeima has created too many problems for its partners. If the JL does not score a decisive victory in the elections, all other parties will think twice before inviting it to the cabinet.
The People's Party (TP) position on the right wing is the most difficult of all. It has been part of the ruling coalition all these years. Its leader Aigars Kalvitis heads the government, and for this reason his party is more vulnerable to criticism both by opponents and supporters.
The Union of Greens and the Farmers (ZZS) has become the most dynamic force in the last few months. New names have appeared on its party list, such as the famous Latvian weightlifter and Olympic champion Viktor Shcherbatykh. The ZZS has skillfully turned the Lembergs regional party into its ally. But this is both the gain and the handicap of the ZZS list, which cannot claim a position in the center of the political spectrum, and is gradually shifting to the more radical side.
The alliance For Human Rights in United Latvia (PCTVL) has the most stable position on the left wing at the moment. All recent ratings put them second or third with the results of 9%-12%. The specificities of Latvian polls suggest that the real voters' support is even higher -about 15%. This is a popular political brand. The bulk of electors who traditionally vote for so-called left-wing or "Russian parties" are not concerned that the formerly three-party alliance has now been reduced to one member - Equal Rights. A big number of ethnic Russian electors want to take revenge, or get moral satisfaction for how the ruling right-wing parties have been humiliating them in the last 15 years. PCTVL politicians fit this role the best.
In this context the recent attempts of their leaders to position themselves not as unflagging defenders of the Russians in Latvia, but as a party of the left alternative may do the PCTVL a disservice. Many Russian electors will not understand if it does not get tougher and more radical in defending their views.
The current level of popularity guarantees the PCTVL that its party list will get into the Latvian parliament, but even if it receives 12 to 15 seats, its future cooperation with the ruling coalition party is a big question.
As an "outcast", the PCTVL is even fiercer in criticizing its potential allies and closest neighbors in the political spectrum - the Harmony Centre (Saskanas Centrs or SC). If the PCTVL succeeds in engineering the SC's defeat in the elections, it will get an illusory hope that in order to find an acceptable balance, part of the ruling parties will invite them into the would-be ruling coalition.
Meanwhile, recent polls show that the SC list is so far capable of overcoming the coveted five-percent barrier. Moreover, it has many popular politicians for any taste, who have an experience of working in state structures and cooperating with the Latvian right. This makes the list appealing not only to the Russian voters, but also to part of the Letts. The SC may not just get into the Saeima, but also receive an invitation to the ruling coalition, and take part in the creation of the new cabinet.
The formation of the new government will take place in several stages. At first, the right-wing parties will reach agreement among themselves. All in all, they may occupy from 37 to 42 seats, and will have to invite someone from outside. If they decide on the SC, the first center-left government will be established in Latvia. Incidentally, the right-wing parties have become totally indiscriminate in their efforts to keep the declining power. They are ready to cooperate even with the extreme radicals.
Latvian-Russian intercourse deserves special mention. Permanent contacts and meetings of their political and public figures show that the bottom line in interstate relations has already been passed. The right-wing parties are even competing for the right to resolve foreign policy problems in bilateral relations, which inspires certain optimism. TP leader and Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis has been successful in this context in his attempts to outdo his coalition partners Ainars Slesers and Saeima speaker from the ZZS Ingrida Udre, who have been trying to perform the same task for a number of years now. If a left-wing party, which upholds the interests of the Russian speakers, joins the future ruling coalition, this trend will gain momentum.
