Unfortunately, development ideas do not dominate the world, which is ruled by the planet's richest people and multinational corporations. They worship profit, and apart from money, use military might, provocations, secret operations and the like as instruments to accumulate it. Inhumane morals are gaining in strength; the late John Paul II described them in an Apostolic Letter as "the culture of death." Extreme individualism, a lust for profit and success at all, even immoral, costs are changing the human essence.
International law is also being eroded, especially in international relations. It was formulated during the period of parity after World War II, when the world had a major alternative to capitalism - the socialist system. No matter what we think of it, its existence was one of the pillars of the era of a political and military balance.
The world lived in accordance with political "market relations," with countries free to choose between liberal capitalism and socialism. Developing countries mostly opted for a mixed model that incorporated elements of both systems.
There is no choice today, which is an extremely dangerous trend, because the international law had been a reliable shield protecting all countries. The United States is pursuing a policy aimed at creating chaos, seeking to subsequently control this chaos in its own interests. A close look at the political map shows a spanning network of potential conflicts. Most of them are controllable and can be activated by pushing the right button.
The U.S. intelligence community has adopted new doctrines, according to which it can wage preventive wars, overthrow state leaders, and change political regimes in any country that can potentially threaten the United States. In fact, a secret war against any state is on the official agenda.
Such scenarios are sometimes enacted to provoke dramatic events that scare millions and bring life in big cities to a jarring halt. People become hostages to others' ill will and players in a strange game whose rules they don't know.
The worst part is that there is no stability in the world, though we know from physics and history that there should be at least two pillars for creating a balance. When there is parity, there is a possibility of coming to terms. It is much worse when one pole dominates the situation, especially when that pole is the United States.
I don't want to say that American farmers are obsessed with the idea of conquering the world. Like ordinary people in all other countries, they have other, more down-to-earth, problems. But the aggregate capital, primarily oil and defense one, which the Bush administration symbolizes, thinks differently. The U.S. largely controls Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Iraqi oilfields and the Iranian oil provinces. If Washington assumes control of two-thirds of global oil reserves, other countries will be hard put to resist its influence.
This is why the U.S. national security strategy, especially with regard to Russia and China, set the goal of preventing the revival of a state that would be able to challenge America in any sphere of human endeavor. The algorithm of suppression has been created in nearly all regions of the world, and anyone that could potentially threaten U.S. interests is monitored and hunted down.
But some states refuse to be controlled. China's development program for 2019 stipulates the objective of becoming the number one power comparable to the United States. China does not proclaim the goal of military or economic domination, but is working to dominate the economies of Southeast Asia. The Chinese make up at least 10-11% of population in Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries of the region. They own trade companies and are developing production there, controlling about 80% of these economies. Creeping ethnic expansion is a way to conquer the world.
It this a threat? China is building up its economic muscle and defenses, and can be dangerous. On the other hand, it does not have to be dangerous if the world develops economic harmony and a counterbalance of forces.
Which scenario is more probable? A great deal will depend on other geopolitical players. If the Americans take over the world's oil resources by attacking Iran, this will be an indirect blow to China, which will be unable to develop without petrochemicals. This may provoke China to act.
The Chinese issue is also very important for Russia. It is clear that it should maintain contacts with China in all spheres and keep it in sight. Problems in bilateral relations should be resolved economically, not with the use of arms. For example, it can divert part of its oil and gas exports from the West to China, or create joint wood processing companies. There are many ways to develop ties with China, which must not be allowed to brood in isolation.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organizations (SCO) appears to be a good tool for this, and a way to form a geopolitical alliance with China. The organization has proved its practical worth and can lead to the creation of an alternative pole of power. The world needs it to be able to stand on two legs and have a counterbalance to the American cowboys.
The SCO has developed from a group of five border countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and China) into a major regional organization. It has admitted a new member - Uzbekistan - and granted the observer status to several other countries.
It is possible to create a bloc of four civilizations with whom we share traditional values - the Eurasian cultural world of Orthodox and Islamic states, and China. These countries can develop cooperation on the spiritual basis with strategic goals in mind, without threatening the West. The world should be offered a development alternative, and the SCO can also serve as the defender of the regional economic market and banking, acting in line with the UN Charter, and with its own collective security system.
The SCO has proved instrumental in easing global tension. It must be clear that it was never regarded as an alternative to NATO, or as a prototype military bloc. It would be impossible to unite in one military organization fundamentalist Iran and India, which stands somewhat apart from China, as well as Russia. A system of collective security, which takes into account the specific features of the eastern civilization, should be created there.
Russia plays a special role in the modern world. Every big state has a geopolitical idea, or mission. It is more or less clear what China and the United States want, and Russia's mission has always been to bring justice to the world and maintain a balance of forces. Defined more precisely, Russia's mission is to try to harmonize relations between civilizations and prevent a clash between them.
The world is waiting for somebody to offer it a new philosophy of life. Russia is capable of that.
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Leonid Ivashov is vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
