MOSCOW, September 26 (RIA Novosti) The Hungarian revolution in a post-Soviet scenario / Presidential 'vertical of power' needs another support / Radical opposition wants to boycott 2007 election / Prosecutor-General's Office set to investigate Kovykta deposit / Gazprom may buy ONGC's share in Sakahlin 1
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Izvestia
The Hungarian revolution in a post-Soviet scenario
Regime change in Hungary is following the same process as the one used in many other countries, from the former Yugoslavia to Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, a Russian political analyst told the popular daily Izvestia.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politics Foundation, said compromising materials first appeared in Hungary, the same as the Ukrainian revolution began with the appearance of secret tapes of the fugitive Major Melnichenko.
Next, it was alleged the government was lying to the people, and a street demonstration was organized. The most active protesters stormed government buildings and clashed with police.
Nikonov writes that the first victims made developments more emotional and contributed to arguments that the anti-popular regime had to be overturned.
Few regimes can withstand this for months (relevant examples are Belarus and Azerbaijan). At the same time, issues of legality and constitutionality are pushed into the background.
According to Nikonov, if these methods can be successfully used in well-off Hungary, they can be used anywhere. The support Western politicians and media have been giving to revolutions in the past few years can only inspire new revolutions.
The encouragement of revolutions in some countries by the globalizing media provokes the destabilization of many other states, and it is difficult to say who will be attacked next - Kiev, Paris, Budapest or Bangkok.
Nikonov warns that the instigators of revolutions can themselves fall victim to them.
A revolution can be encouraged, but its outcome cannot be controlled. In 1917, Russian revolutionaries and Western governments hailed the fall of Emperor Nicholas II. Little did they know that this heralded more than 70 years of Bolshevik rule.
It seemed in the past few years that Hungary had buried its Communist-era grievances and was ready for constructive cooperation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin helped the party of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany by coming to Budapest shortly before the elections and speaking about joint multibillion dollar projects, such as the construction of a natural gas distribution center in Hungary and a logistic hub for commodities delivered along the Trans-Siberian Railway from Asia.
But the current revolutionaries are desecrating monuments to the Soviet soldiers who liberated Hungary from the fascists, and local Nazis recall that the Soviet Union sent tanks to crush the 1956 Hungarian uprising.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Presidential 'vertical of power' needs another support
The government has submitted to the State Duma a bill intended to make the procedure for stripping regional leaders of their powers very simple. It makes it possible to charge officials of any rank with complicity in terrorism if he shows inefficiency or neglect of duty. The bill's developers do not hide the fact that they seek to strengthen the president's power still further.
The suggested amendments will allow Vladimir Putin, on the prosecutor-general's recommendations, to remove governors from their posts for any offence, no matter how mild. At present this procedure is possible only if the prosecutor's office accuses top regional officials of grave or particularly grave crimes.
All of these strict rules are expected to address the problem of terrorism, which, as the explanatory memo to the bill says, "poses a serious threat to Russia's national security... In Russia, some territories are used to train terrorists with the direct connivance of official persons responsible for public order and security," say the drafters. The improper discharge by civil servants of their duties "opens the way to recruiting new members, including those with certain ruling powers, to terrorist organizations."
According to the logic of the developers, it appears that Russian bureaucrats, corrupt and lazy, are almost the main culprits for the current rise in terrorist activity in the country.
The document argues that previously-adopted laws concerning governor appointments were inadequate. The power vertical needs more props to support it, it says. However, it may well be that we are witnessing the legal birth of a promising election project tentatively called "Countering Corrupt Bureaucracy that Betrays the Country."
Kommersant
Radical opposition wants to boycott 2007 election
Members of The Other Russia forum postponed discussions on a possible boycott of the parliamentary elections in 2007 for two weeks. Having heard a report by Stanislav Belkovsky, president of the National Strategy Institute, opposition activists decided that a boycott would be a means of putting pressure on the authorities, but agreed that these tactics needed detailed development.
Belkovsky suggested that opposition parties should not run in the next election, because the Russian parliament "had little authority among the population and therefore limited legitimacy." As the opposition's goal to attain power can be achieved only at the presidential election, they should be preparing for this race. They have to find a "single candidate" that will suit both Liberals from the Union of Right Forces (SPS) and Yabloko, and Communists, he said.
However, other members of the forum had mixed feelings about the proposal. A boycott is effective when it "disrupts an election," said Alexander Osovtsov, project director of the Open Russia foundation. But to set such a goal, there must be a "positive plan of action" for the ensuing period.
Mikhail Kasyanov, leader of the People's Democratic Union and a former prime minister, said the discussion was premature but could be "resumed in December."
Garry Kasparov, leader of the United Civil Front, said that a boycott should be announced "about ten months in advance," i.e. just as the parliamentary election campaign begins.
However, the effectiveness of the Belkovsky-proposed move is doubtful, experts told the paper. Boris Makarenko, deputy director general of the Center for Political Technologies, said that although society "does not like the fact that elections have become less competitive, it values stability above all else." Calls for a boycott will make "perfectly viable political forces give up voluntarily," he said. At the same time, those who declare the boycott will find themselves pushed to the periphery of the political scene, he said. The implications of this can be seen in the example of Yabloko and the SPS, which "are either forgotten by society or not seen as a serious political force," Makarenko said.
Vedomosti
Prosecutor-General's Office set to investigate Kovykta deposit
The Prosecutor-General's Office has accused RUSIA Petroleum general director Valery Pak of violating natural resources and environmental protection legislation, and said he is responsible for the excessively slow development of Eastern Siberia's Kovykta gas condensate deposit.
Market players said RUSIA Petroleum will not have its license revoked and linked prosecutors' claims with energy giant Gazprom's intention to develop the Kovykta deposit.
A spokesperson for Russian-British oil venture TNK-BP, which has a 62.42% stake in RUSIA Petroleum, declined to comment; and a Natural Resources Ministry spokesperson said the ministry had some misgivings about Kovykta. However, officials still do not plan to investigate whether or not RUSIA Petroleum is adhering to license provisions.
A source close to RUSIA Petroleum said the company would not lose this license, and that the Prosecutor-General's Office had simply decided to make a scapegoat out of Pak. He explained its claims by Gazprom's desire to develop the Kovykta deposit.
A source close to TNK-BP said Gazprom is trying to bring prices down before it can buy the Russian stake in TNK-BP, because oligarch Viktor Vekselberg, a TNK-BP shareholder, is also a supervisor of the Kovykta project.
Maxim Shein, head of research at the BrokerCreditService brokerage, said the notification to appear at the Prosecutor-General's Office apparently implied that TNK-BP would soon receive a new partner for developing the Kovykta deposit. He said Gazprom, the only contender, has been eyeing this deposit for a long time. Gazprom wants to receive a stake in the project, rather than have RUSIA Petroleum's license revoked, as this would cause an international scandal and delay the deposit's development, he said.
Political deals may be at the root of the heightened activity of regulatory and law-enforcement agencies. The authorities spotted violations of Kovykta license agreements long ago, said Steven Dashevsky, director of research with Aton Capital Group. The market may react negatively to the revocation of the RUSIA Petroleum license, and this may impact the Russian investment climate. It would be better for all the concerned parties to negotiate a settlement to the conflict, he told the paper.
Biznes
Gazprom may buy ONGC's share in Sakahlin 1
India's ONGC may sell its 20% stake in the Sakhalin 1 oil and gas project, in Russia's Far East, to energy giant Gazprom.
According to British newspaper The Observer, "Gazprom is in negotiations with the Indian National Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) about buying out its 20 per cent stake in Sakhalin 1." The Indian company was probably scared off by the Russian government's attack against the Sakhalin projects, and a hike in Sakhalin 1 costs by project operator ExxonMobil.
Gazprom has approved an extensive development plan, trying to take over as many hydrocarbon assets, and participate in as many major energy projects, as possible.
"The authorities have set the goal of maximum expansion. Gazprom will buy everything it can," said Alexander Razuvayev of the Megatrustoil brokerage. "It has the money and will definitely participate in Russian electricity generation and key oil and gas projects in Russia."
"Gazprom is also negotiating joining Sakhalin 2 with Royal Dutch/Shell," said Igor Vasilyev, an analyst with the Financial Bridge brokerage. "The Russian company wants to participate in the biggest Sakhalin projects."
ONGC was quick to deny reports of the possible sale of its stake in Sakhalin 1 to Gazprom, but this has not changed the opinion of analysts. They explain the ONGC-Gazprom talks by growing problems around production sharing agreements (PSA). Russian officials have focused their attention on the developers of oil and gas projects. According to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, major violations are tolerated under all PSA projects.
"The main problem of such projects is the need to have a buyer for the entire output in the long term," Vasilyev said. "So the ONGC initiative can be considered a positive factor."
Razuvayev said the additional agreements with the Indian company might imply a compromise on deliveries. "However, it is difficult to forecast the companies' ultimate agreement," he said. "Gazprom is a very non-transparent company, because it does not make its plans public until the last moment. So the final text of the agreement can stipulate anything, including an asset swap."
