MOSCOW, October 10 (RIA Novosti)
Pyongyang to develop combat-ready nuclear warhead soon: expert/Aluminum mega-holding set up in Russia /LUKoil forces Yukos from Caspian shelf/Gazprom to develop Shtokman gas condensate deposit on its own/Monitors record mass violations in regional elections
(RIA Novosti does not accept responsibility for articles in the press)
Izvestia, Vedomosti
Pyongyang to develop combat-ready nuclear warhead soon: expert
North Korea, which withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003, became the ninth nuclear-armed country Monday morning following a nuclear test. Experts are debating how soon the country will build combat-ready nuclear warheads.
Experts said the four-ton, three-meter-long North Korean nuclear device could theoretically kill about 200,000 people over an area of 12 square kilometers.
Viktor Yesin, former chief of staff of Russia's Strategic Missile Force and first vice president at the Academy of Security, Defense, Law and Order, said North Korea has a nuclear device, but not a nuclear warhead - the device cannot be installed on any operational North Korean missile.
Charles Hayman, a defense analyst with Jane's Defence Weekly, said Pyongyang may develop combat-ready nuclear weapons in the next three to five years. He said South Africa assembled its first nuclear device in 1978 and developed combat-ready nuclear bombs by 1982.
Yury Yudin, director of the Analytical Center for Non-Proliferation, said North Korea had more than enough time to develop a more effective plutonium bomb than the six-ton Fat Man bomb, with a 12.5-kiloton yield, that was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. He said a 300-400-kg plutonium warhead can be deployed on missiles of the Scud and Nodong type; the latter, which have a 1,500-km range, could hit South Korea, Japan, Russia and China.
Vladimir Dvorkin, former director of the Russian Defense Ministry's No. 4 R&D Institute, which provided arguments in favor of developing tactical and strategic nuclear forces, said North Korea could have tested a nuclear device about 15 years ago. But Pyongyang did not do this for fear of a negative global response and tough sanctions.
He said North Korean leaders have apparently decided that the United States and Europe are now entangled in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the Iranian crisis.
Gazeta.ru
Aluminum mega-holding set up in Russia
Aluminum giants RusAl and SUAL, and Swiss raw materials trader Glencore, have announced the creation of United Company Russian Aluminum based on their combined assets. The new company will corner most of the world aluminum and alumina market, getting ahead of such giants as Alcan and Alcoa.
Russian Aluminum plans to spend $3-3.5 billion on production development in the next five years.
"With an alliance with Glencore under their belt, the Russian partners can build aluminum smelters in Russia without troubling themselves with alumina supplies, which will be sufficient," said Igor Nuzhdin of Solid brokerage.
"If they are to opt for more intensive means, they should choose a higher degree of conversion, something Alcoa did in its day." In this case, the analyst said, the Russian mega-holding may also take over aluminum component supplies to aircraft manufacturers.
This issue is particularly high on the order of the day now that European aluminum companies have refused to supply spare parts to Airbus.
"Conceivably, future Airbus needs might be satisfied by Russian producers, and some agreement seems to have been negotiated," said Nuzhdin. "But to do this the holding must solve the problem of turning out a new assortment of products."
Lately it has become habitual for the state to take Russian strategic companies under its control. The world's largest aluminum producer may safely be ranked among such, but analysts expect the company to remain independent, if only formally.
"State intervention in this private company may scare off investors from its future IPO and lose the present owners expected returns," said a market expert who wished to remain anonymous. "In the 18 months left before the IPO, the state, acting as a bystander, will try to direct the new structure in the required direction without emphasizing its participation."
The source said no means of administrative pressure will be needed for this -- the aluminum producers are interested in preferential treatment from power companies and will themselves propose some or other barter scheme.
"Even after the IPO, the aluminum giant will not go under state administration, although it will be heavily dependent upon the state," the expert said.
Kommersant
LUKoil forces Yukos from Caspian shelf
LUKoil, Russia's largest independent oil producer, is suing Yukos to force it out of the Caspian Oil Company. Yukos, which was declared bankrupt earlier this year, may lose its 49.892% share in the authorized capital of the consortium, which has been evaluated at $100 million. Energy giant Gazprom will most likely be the main claimant of Yukos' share.
The Caspian Oil Company (COC) was set up in 2000 and holds an exploration license for the North Caspian area until 2009. An informed source said the results of the exploration project estimate recoverable assets at 300-400 million tons of conventional fuel.
Valery Vaisberg, an analyst with the Region investment company, said the reserves could be worth about $200 million, which means that Yukos' share would total $100 million.
"It is logical that LUKoil is trying to use Yukos' current weakness to force it out of the consortium without paying anything," said Dmitry Mangilev, an analyst with the Prospekt brokerage. "Besides, Yukos has no money to finance the operation of the consortium."
Independent lawyers say LUKoil's attempt to push Yukos aside may succeed.
"Yukos cannot hope to get its fair share," said Alexander Yevstigneyev from the Liniya Prava law company. "Payments are made from the difference between the value of its net assets and its authorized capital, which is negative in the case of the COC."
According to the consortium's financial report for 2005, its net assets are worth 33.4 million rubles ($1.24 million) and its authorized capital 69.5 million rubles ($2.58 million).
Branch analysts do not rule out that Yukos' share in the Caspian consortium will go to Gazprom.
"The Caspian region is primarily LUKoil's zone of strategic interest, although the COC may also be interesting to Gazprom," said Dmitry Tsaregorodtsev, an analyst with FIM Securities. He said LUKoil might recruit the assistance of Gazprom in the suit.
Tsaregorodtsev said that eventually the Caspian consortium will be transformed into a one-owner company.
Vedomosti
Gazprom to develop Shtokman gas condensate deposit on its own
Energy giant Gazprom said Monday it does not need foreign partners to develop the Shtokman natural gas deposit, and it plans to export gas to Europe, rather than the United States.
Experts said the project's implementation is being delayed because Gazprom will find it hard to develop the deposit on its own.
Gazprom decided to independently develop the deposit because it does not want to share gas with partners, a corporate manager said.
Foreign partners, primarily the United States, insisted that the Shtokman deposit be developed under a production-sharing agreement, but Gazprom did not agree to this plan.
"This is too unprofitable, because the Shtokman deposit's value will increase from $16 billion to $50 billion in the next seven or eight years," the manager told the paper.
A Kremlin Administration official said the situation with Sakhalin product sharing agreements shows it is unprofitable for Russia to implement PSA schemes with foreign companies.
Sergei Yezhov, deputy director of the Independent Fuel and Energy Institute, said Gazprom's decision was motivated by a two-fold increase in the Sakhalin II PSA project's cost estimate, to $20 billion. "Foreigners suggested developing the Shtokman deposit under a PSA project, but it appears that the Kremlin and Gazprom no longer want to do this," Yezhov told the paper.
However, the Gazprom manager said he doubted whether his company can develop the huge Shtokman deposit on its own. He said it would cost at least $40-50 billion to develop it. In addition, Gazprom, which would have to borrow on a huge scale, lacks the required technologies.
Analyst Valery Nesterov from the Troika Dialog brokerage said Gazprom will find it extremely hard to independently develop the deposit. He said its development will probably be delayed for several years, as Nord Stream (the North European Gas Pipeline) will have enough gas for the first 10 to 15 years, even without Shtokman field resources.
The Gazprom manager said his company was unlikely to commission the Shtokman deposit by 2011-2012 as planned. Gazprom will need tens of billions of dollars to develop the Bovanenkovsky deposit on the Yamal peninsula in the next three to four years; and it appears that the Shtokman project will be mothballed for a long time, he told the paper.
Gazeta
Monitors record mass violations in regional elections
Mass violations of electoral law and a low turnout were the hallmarks of voting day in some Russian regions. In nearly every one of them, monitors registered dozens of breaches. Most of the candidates and independent experts explain the incidents in terms of bureaucratic leverage.
Low turnout characterized the elections. In the Sverdlovsk Region, for example, the results hung in the balance into the night. It was only a couple of hours before closing time that the Yekaterinburg electoral commission registered 27.9% of the voters. The average turnout in nine regions did not top 35.6%.
United Russia does not consider the no-shows to be a sign of protest. "Those who did not go to the polling stations would have voted in the same way as those who did," said Andrei Vorobyov, head of the party's executive committee.
Although United Russia's win was evident to everybody, bureaucratic leverage was overused in almost every region. Most violations, according to observers, were recorded in the Sverdlovsk Region.
"When it became clear that the elections might be scuttled by a low turnout, mass home balloting started in the region," said Kirill Baranov, head of the LDPR's regional branch.
According to the Communists, most violations took place in the countryside. "In the suburbs and villages, all the ballots were stuffed into one box labeled United Russia," said Gennady Zyuganov.
The party of power is trying to ignore the violations. "Registered violations were at a minimum. If governors took some improper actions, they might be described as technical irregularities," Vorobyov said.
Alexander Ivanchenko, director of the Independent Institute of Elections, disagrees. "Practically every head of a region topping the United Russia list has received instructions from Moscow for a desirable result and minimum turnout. As a rule, the figures overshot 60% and even 80%. Not surprisingly, regional authorities now and again broke the rules."
