Congressional elections: What will America decide?

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov) - The Republican National Committee is running a TV advertisement showing footage of an attractive, Marilyn Monroe-type blonde whispering intimately that she met Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. at a Playboy Magazine party.

Ford, an African American, represents the Ninth Congressional District in Tennessee and is the Democratic Party's candidate for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Majority Leader Bill Frist.

The commercial attempts to compromise Ford by playing on racist fears of mixed marriages between African Americans and Whites.

Dirty tricks are being used with more and more frequency in the run up to the November 7 Congressional elections because the stakes are so high. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, whose members serve two-year terms, are up for election. Thirty three seats in the United States Senate, whose members serve six-year terms, are also being contested, while 36 out of the 50 states will elect their governors.

The Republican Party, which has dominated Capitol Hill since the 1994 Republican Revolution, now seems vulnerable to a Democratic attack.

If general elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, were held every two years, its members would be very upset because they prefer to work slowly.

Under those circumstances, the State Duma would considerably pick up the pace of law-making. It is unclear whether the U.S. Constitution's authors were motivated by similar considerations, but they did create an effective system for regularly reshuffling the legislative and executive branches of government for the benefit of all Americans.

This time, it appears that Capitol Hill is in for a Democratic revolution because the forthcoming general elections will reflect the American public's stance towards the war in Iraq.

Influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina recently said the United States was on the verge of chaos in Iraq, and its current strategy was not working. His statement captures the prevalent mood on this issue.

President George W. Bush cannot modify his Iraqi policy on the eve of general elections because he does not want to concede defeat. Instead, he has launched an unprecedented electoral campaign, lauded his administration's successes in fighting terrorists, promised to carry on with efforts to achieve a stable and democratic Iraq and hinted at possible tactical changes.

Such rhetoric might play well with his staunchest Republican supporters, but it has made undecided voters, i.e. 25-30% of the U.S. electorate, even more skeptical.

The Bush administration faces bleak prospects. In the latest CNN poll, only 20% of respondents, or half as many as last year, believe that the United States can win the war in Iraq. Moreover, one out of every three Republicans is ready to vote for a Democratic candidate. The U.S. public is becoming increasingly convinced that no war can justify such a loss of American lives. Nearly 3,000 U.S. soldiers and 655,000 Iraqis have been killed to date. Every voter will think that the United States had absolutely no reason for attacking Iraq. Although the Democrats may establish control over the House or the Senate, the end result is still unclear.

The Republicans and the Democrats hold 231 and 201 seats, respectively, in the House of Representatives. There is also one independent representative, and two seats are vacant. The Democrats will also have to capture six seats in the Senate.

However, victory for the Democratic Party is still a formidable task despite the Iraq war and the Foley scandal. The latter, which broke in late September, involves revelations that Mark Foley, a Republican congressman from Florida, sent sexually explicit e-mails and instant messages to young men who had formerly served as congressional pages.

Veteran senators and representatives can influence their electorate more effectively than rookie candidates. U.S. voters are traditionally loyal to incumbents, regardless of their partisan affiliation. Add to this mix the redrawing of Congressional districts after the 2000 census.

Many Americans are now focusing on social issues, namely, illegal immigration, same-sex marriages and a law ordering doctors to notify teenage girls' parents of their intention to perform abortions. The war in Iraq is seen as less important against this backdrop.

The Democratic Party must therefore make every effort to sway public opinion. President Bush's job, however, is safe. Moreover, U.S. foreign policy, including relations with Russia, will not change dramatically if the Democrats take over.

This is because such high-priority issues as the fight against terrorism, relations with Iran and North Korea leave little room for anyone, even the Democrats, to maneuver.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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