MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - Kyrgyzstan is living through its second revolutionary season. The opposition to President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is using the methods of the March 2005 "tulip revolution" - demonstrations demanding the resignation of the current authorities - to resolve the country's painful problems.
Like in the spring of 2005, people are again converging in Ala-Too Square, carrying red flags and posters demanding the resignation of the president.
Red is the official color of the demonstration, although the color of the March 2005 revolution was yellow. Roza Otunbayeva, an ideologist of the "tulip revolution", said yellow was like the yellow traffic light on the crossing to reforms.
The revolution was proclaimed victorious, but the opposition claims the new authorities have not given the green light to reforms. Therefore, it should be shown the red light, which means that it should be replaced. The leaders of the opposition movement For Reforms, which unites the biggest political parties of Kyrgyzstan, several NGOs and opposition deputies, demand that Bakiyev must go.
Other demands are traditional - a parliamentary regime, a government of public confidence that includes opposition members, public control of the state television channel, dismissal of the prosecutor general and the capital's police chief for gross violations of the law, an end to "family business" (referring to the president's family), and an active anti-corruption policy.
The opposition demanded the same from the previous president, Askar Akayev.
It is true that the Constitution of Kyrgyzstan should be overhauled. In fact, Bakiyev came to power in 2005 under the banner of amending the constitution in order to curtail presidential powers. But a dialogue on the reform of power structures, which he promised to the opposition, has so far not been initiated.
Bakiyev will have to talk with the opposition this time. Does he know a way to ease tensions? The outcome will become clear in two or three days.
It is an alarming sign that both the opposition and the authorities have announced their readiness to "take serious steps". Much will depend on the position of Prime Minister Felix Kulov and parliament speaker Marat Sultanov.
Revolutions are always destructive, and therefore an ideal way out would be going over from confrontation to civilized dialogue aimed at choosing a model of reforms suiting all sides. The ultimate goal is to consolidate the political forces and cleanse the relations between them of hostility.
There are solid reasons for the main charges brought by the people against Bakiyev regarding his personnel policy and the "family business". But a revolutionary change of power, even if a moderate one, could be destructive for Kyrgyzstan, which is a relatively small country where everything, or nearly everything, is known about every politician.
The opposition leaders, who have become familiar faces on television these days, are not lily-white either, local observers say. They represent the interests, or are on the payroll, of the regional elites. Therefore, there is no guarantee that a new regime will cleanse the country of the current regime's vices overnight. Moreover, today's winners may be attacked for the same mistakes tomorrow.
It stands to reason that a culture of power that excludes fraternity, clan and other elements of corruption should be developed gradually through mechanisms provided for by the constitution.
If the authorities manage to put out the revolutionary passions this time but refuse to discuss constitutional reforms with the opposition, they will encounter much more serious problems next March, analysts in Bishkek say.
