MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov) - By the day of mid-term elections to the U.S. Congress, Saddam Hussein was sentenced to capital punishment, and a new action was brought against him there and then, as if one death sentence was not enough.
But this did not help the Republicans.
Nothing could have helped them by that time, not even if the dictator had been hanged. America is fed up with the feelings of anger, disgust and shame evoked by the war in Iraq, and used mid-term elections as a chance to punish George W. Bush and his party for this appalling mistake.
Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (Dem.) is now accepting congratulations as a new speaker of the House, and few people doubt that the Democrats will win six seats in the Senate, which would give them the majority. After 12 years in the shadow, the Democrats are regaining control over the Capitol. America is bidding farewell to the era of conservative politics, which was inaugurated by Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, and was not abolished even by the eight-year-long rule of Democrat Bill Clinton.
The Democrats have won not because their ideological program or politics appeared to be more attractive in November 2006. The Republicans were simply much weaker. They did not correspond to the common idea of a reasonable and competent government.
Despite his titanic efforts, George W. Bush failed to please the electorate with the relatively low prices on gas, or scare it with the high taxes to be introduced by the Democrats. ABC television network's exit polls showed that six out of ten Americans are very disappointed with Bush's performance as president, particularly with his failure in Iraq.
These were the same Americans who gave him the resounding approval of 67% at mid-term Congressional elections in 2002. The four years of the war have changed America no less than Iraq.
What's next? What does the future hold in store for the United States and its relations with Russia? Democrats' control of even one chamber of the Congress, to say nothing of two, can create a chronic stalemate in the legislative process. The new majority will allow the Democrats to exert decisive influence on the work of the most important parliamentary committees. It is easy to predict that as a result the Republican Administration will have to deal with several headaches - reduced expenses for the campaign in Iraq, investigation of the motives for and circumstances of this war, and, eventually, impeachment of the president, as a triumph of political revenge. This will be the case only if the Democrats manage to prove the charge of "deliberate deception" of the Congress before the invasion of Iraq. At any rate, this is the goal of the newly elected senators, who claim the leadership of the judiciary committee, which oversees impeachment procedures.
It is also important that today's success may help the Democrats win presidential elections in 2008. The prospects for Hillary Clinton, who has kept her seat in the Senate, look particularly good.
Moscow is quite impartial and philosophical about the democratic revolution in the United States. The U.S. administration has been weakened by mid-term elections, and will have to struggle for its own survival in the next two years. But is it good or bad for Russian interests?
It seems bad at the first sight. The Democrats may toughen even more their criticism of what they call Russia's backsliding into "authoritarian rule," and prevent the administration from keeping its promises to Moscow.
But on the other hand, what promises to Moscow have the Republican Administration honored, even despite the friendship between Bush and Putin? How has it reciprocated for a long list of Russia's goodwill moves, such as the shutdown of military bases on Cuba and in Vietnam, consent to the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM treaty, and to temporary deployment of American military bases in Central Asia, and supply of intelligence information on Afghanistan?
In effect, it has not reciprocated at all. The anachronistic and discriminatory Jackson-Vanik amendment has not yet been repealed. The WTO protocol has not even been signed, to say nothing of approved.
The Kremlin believes that America owes Russia a lot. This is also the prevailing opinion of the man in the street, and it is not likely to change after the reshuffle in the Congress. Moreover, considering the similarity in the Democrats' and Moscow's positions on Iraq, I would like to hope that their return to the legislative majority will make U.S. policy towards Russia more responsible. After all, the U.S. Congress or America as a whole will not be able to deal single-handed with the major challenges of our time, such as international terrorism, Iran, Iraq, or North Korea.
