ESTONIA
The press is toning down its criticism of Poland, which has blocked negotiations on a Russia-EU partnership agreement. The entire European Union will back Poland, news analysts say. "The punitive commercial barriers [imposed by Russia] pursue political goals and cost Poland 400 million euros a year, Warsaw says. Poland was initially a lone combatant. Now, it has allies. Thus, France and Lithuania say they insist on [Russia] lifting the import ban as soon as possible. Paavo Lipponen, the Finnish parliament speaker, is also lending his support to Poland" (Eesti Paevaleht, November 21).
Commentators regard future Russian WTO membership as a guarantee of Russian economic stability and a remedy against Russia ever again using energy supplies as a political tool. "We should like to hope that Russia, as a World Trade Organization member, will never repeat what it did to the Yukos petroleum company, and will not allow international commerce to be used as a weapon against weaker neighboring countries whose mood and actions run counter to the Kremlin's desires <...> No doubt, joining the WTO is among President Vladimir Putin's fundamental achievements. It is his way of proving to the world that Russia is a perfectly normal country that meets international standards" (Postimees, November 20).
LATVIA
Russia will finally join the World Trade Organization in 2007, the press assumes, whatever Georgia and Moldova might do as a result of the fact that they consider themselves victims of Russian economic pressure. "Russia will have to settle this issue with the WTO itself before it joins <...> It has a chance to enter in mid-2007. However, the Kremlin's desire to pursue protectionist policies in trade may come as the biggest obstacle. Georgia is skeptical about the superpower becoming a WTO member <...> Tbilisi rules out giving any support to Russia joining the WTO until Moscow stops its illegal trade with Georgia's two separatist republics" (Neatkariga rita avize, November 20). "Though Moscow's relations with Moldova and Georgia are laden with problems, those countries have no political weight to bargain with and so cannot block Russia's joining of the WTO" (Telegraf, November 20).
The recent NATO analytical report about Kremlin plans for a gas cartel has provoked heated debates in the press. "The report's prediction left certain energy experts skeptical. As they point out, the international natural gas trade rests on principles utterly different from those of the petroleum trade, so there is hardly any possibility of establishing a gas cartel along the lines of OPEC in the present situation" (Telegraf, November 16). "Russia's impact on the global energy market means it can afford to act independently <...> Drawing an analogy with OPEC is quite understandable: the organization cannot saddle Russia with its resolutions, so Russia makes independent decisions on petroleum production and sale amounts <...> This allows Moscow to stand aloof from OPEC's political decisions, which is especially important in light of the anti-U.S. statements frequently coming from the organization's leadership. There is no way to remove politics from the gas issue. Russia has already attempted to use its gas pipeline as a political weapon" (Business & Baltija, November 16).
LITHUANIA
Poland has taken a tough stance on Russia, vetoing its negotiations with the European Union. Experts think Lithuania gains by Polish harshness. "The Polish demarche could be very beneficial to Lithuania by compelling Russia to see the fruits of its political pressure" (Verslo zines, November 15). "The tough stance taken by Poland in blocking the EU-Russia agreement shows the entire European bloc that petty interests will be pushed aside-at least for now-in relations with Russia. Among such 'petty' issues is the Druzhba pipeline, which stopped supplying petroleum to Mazeikiai last July. Semyon Vainshtok, president of Transneft, recently referred to the decrepit pipeline as hopelessly outdated, and said it might be shut down for repairs next spring. That may be a mere coincidence-or it may not. The pipeline will be a barrier preventing Russia and the EU from renewing their partnership agreement as long as the [Polish-based] Orlen Co. purchases the Mazeikiu Nafta. Mazeikiai may yet receive petroleum through the pipe if the Poles continue to block the renewal of the Russia-EU agreement-a possibility beneficial to both parties" (Verslo zines, November 20).
UKRAINE
The end of Russo-U.S. negotiations for Russia to join the WTO, with Moscow and Washington signing a final protocol, was widely dicussed. Media outlets have resumed their contest to predict who will win the Russian-Ukrainian WTO membership race, and what is in store for the loser. "Kiev used to believe the absence of a Russian-American agreement <...> gave it a major head start. No one expected the advantage to vanish so soon <...> Imagine what Moscow will demand of Kiev if Russia is the first to join! The discriminatory demands Russia made of Ukraine in their wars over meat, milk and alcohol will look like polite requests after that" (Podrobnosti, November 17). "The upcoming round of talks with its former sister republics may prove the hardest for the Kremlin <...> It may be extremely prolonged, <...> especially because of Georgia's serious political grudges <...> Kiev has a good chance of becoming a full member of the organization as early as December" (Delovaya Stolitsa, November 20).
Certain experts are sure there is a tacit understanding between Moscow and Kiev not to block each other's bids to join the WTO. "Even if our neighbors are the first to join, nothing will slow Ukraine's progress" (ForUm, November 16).
A majority of analysts, however, are uneasy about the mere possibility of secret Russian-Ukrainian agreements. "The Kremlin has repeatedly trespassed not merely on verbal understandings but also on international treaties and contracts-for instance, on gas prices and exports" (Podrobnosti, November 17).
MOLDOVA
The press offers detailed information about a decision by the U.S. Senate to agree to another round of NATO enlargement and to offer monetary aid to Georgia, Albania, Macedonia and Croatia. They regard this as a breakthrough on the part of Tbilisi. Meanwhile, Moldova stands to lose a lot by shrugging off the "Georgian pattern" of European integration, news analysts warn. "Pessimistic forecasts of Georgia's economic collapse and international isolation have not come true. On the contrary, it has taken the 'pole position' in the new stage of NATO enlargement-certainly in order to strengthen the pillars of its genuine independence and economic autonomy <...> The Kremlin administration is pursuing a policy of intimidating Moldova and undermining its economy. This appears to be the decisive argument in favor of a pragmatic and realistic foreign policy, while Chisinau, on the contrary, continues to cling to its imaginary relations with the eastern giant, which is only out to promote its geopolitical interests" (FLUX, November 21).
ARMENIA
Russo-Georgian tensions have given Baku a chance to coax the Kremlin into a pro-Azeri solution of the Karabakh issue in exchange for Azerbaijan joining the Russian-imposed economic blockade of Georgia, Azeri news analysts believe-something their Armenian counterparts see as nothing more than wishful thinking. "They want to offer Russia a choice: either it finally leaves the South Caucasus alone or stays there with Azeri help, which will surely be to the detriment of Armenia, Russia's ally <...> However, even Azeri experts doubt that the Kremlin is really sincere when it says it is eager to rescue the Karabakh conflict from a dead end <...> Russia must cajole Azerbaijan at all costs so as to make Georgia's energy blockade even worse this coming winter. However, if the Karabakh issue is settled in that way, Russia will risk losing the entire region, not Georgia alone" (Ayotz Ashkhar, November 17).
Several Armenian press outlets have drawn attention to President Robert Kocharyan's recent visit to Moscow, when the Kremlin tried to persuade him to resign, offering a lucrative post in exchange. "According to Russian sources, when the Armenian and Russian presidents met in a conference closed to the media, it was explicitly said to Robert Kocharyan that Armenia had only one way to avoid harmful developments in the Karabakh conflict and its endless domestic political emergencies. That was his resignation <...> Robert Kocharyan was asked to consider the possibility of heading a major Gazprom regional project <...> or becoming CIS secretary" (168 zham, November 15).
GEORGIA
Media outlets appear encouraged after Matthew Bryza, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs, made a statement on his country's behalf authorizing a Georgian energy partnership with Iran. "'Since Gazprom is offering Georgia gas at European prices, the Georgian authorities ought to hold negotiations with Turkey and Azerbaijan as alternative natural gas exporters. If Georgia reaches an agreement with Iran, and uses Azerbaijan as an alternative supplier, we will not oppose the arrangement. We cannot make Georgia or any other country go without natural gas in winter,' Bryza said" (Rezonansi, November 18).
Despite this, the media are ever more pessimistic about the upcoming winter. "If the Georgian authorities fail to make the right decision on gas supplies, Georgia may find itself with no gas at all as of January 1 <...> The alternative sources they refer to will not suffice for the whole of Georgia. That makes talks with Russia inevitable" (Rezonansi, November 16).
Experts think Georgia has a good chance of joining NATO. "That will be <...> a major achievement [for Georgia] and a signal to Russia that NATO will protect it" (Rezonansi, November 21).
AZERBAIJAN
Opposition media outlets are focusing on the problems that lie in store for Moscow as Russia moves closer to WTO membership. "We cannot rule out an attempt by Georgia to prevent Russia from joining the WTO. At any rate, Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli has accused Russia of working to overthrow the Saakashvili regime. Moreover, he promised Georgia would oppose Russia's entry to the WTO unless Moscow implemented their 2004 agreements on customs rules and trade <...> His pronouncements sounded like a warning to Russia lest it establish economic links with South Ossetia that bypass Georgia (Echo, November 15).
The press is again accusing Moscow of playing both ends against the middle. It alleges that Russia has offered support to Armenia in settling the Karabakh crisis in exchange for the Armenian authorities' taking Moscow's side in the Russo-Georgian conflict. "Moscow will deliver arms, munitions and military technologies to Armenia worth $26 million before the year's end<...> Russia has also promised to alter its stance on the Karabakh issue in Armenia's favor. In exchange, the Kremlin urged [Armenian President] Kocharyan to take Moscow's side in the Russo-Georgian conflict <...> If Yerevan says no, the Kremlin may start intimidating Armenia with closer Russo-Azeri ties" (Express, November 15).
KYRGYZSTAN
The press is discussing the new Kyrgyz constitution, the result of a compromise between the authorities and the opposition. The clause on dual citizenship met with a harsh response because there is no objective political or economic justification for it, according to sources. Journalists are sure such declarations are merely populist moves, considering Moscow's evident reluctance to reach an agreement on the matter with the Kyrgyz government. "Kyrgyzstan has made repeated official appeals <...> to introduce dual citizenship. No positive response has come from Russia-which is to be expected <...> We have the impression that the promoters of dual citizenship <...> will go on playing this trump card for their own political ends" (Obshchestvenny Rating, November 16).
Experts are very concerned about Russia's program to repatriate ethnic Russians. Kyrgyzstan may lose its ethnic balance if there is an exodus of Russian speakers. "Russia wants Russian speakers to immigrate-but if our own Russians leave for Russia, the present-day ethnic balance in Kyrgyzstan will be badly upset. This is a major factor that the government must reckon with" (Bishkek Times, November 17).
TAJIKISTAN
The media are beginning to conclude that Russia is the only natural ally for the majority of post-Soviet countries. "An argument has been going on for quite a long time between Moscow, Washington and EU countries about their role in the now independent republics of the former Soviet Union. America will stop at nothing to upset the current balance, as evidenced by the 'color revolutions' in some of those countries <...> The majority of them, including, for instance, Uzbekistan, regard Russia as a fire exit. Whenever they clash with the West, particularly the United States, they remember that they have a friend always waiting with open arms for them to come back. Even Georgia, now at war with Russia, may someday hopefully knock on Moscow's door. That will happen when the West refuses to back its stance" (Nachot, November 16).
As the press acknowledges, the Russian military presence in the country is the fundamental guarantor of Tajik stability and safety from external threats. "The presence of Russian troops in Tajikistan is the key factor tying Dushanbe to Moscow. The crucial role here belongs to the 201st base and the OKNO radar, which has passed into Russian hands. They guarantee the present regime real, comprehensive security. True, the Tajik elite has lodged a wealth of claims with the Russian military (which are for the most part just). However, no other foreign country can take over their role" (Asia- Plus, November 16).
