The global media, which have been writing at length about the forthcoming talks, neglect to mention that Bush's visit to Jordan will coincide with a ministerial meeting of the Forum of the Future, a G8 initiative to form a partnership with the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA).
This forum is part of a project to spread democracy in the Broader Middle East devised by the U.S. administration several years ago and later transformed, after major revision, into a G8 initiative. Americans are the godfathers of this initiative, which is not surprising because democratic change has been the declared objective of their Mideast policy since the invasion of Iraq.
However, events in Iraq, Lebanon and the territory controlled by the Palestinian National Authority suggest that Bush's Mideast policy has failed. Bush will not come to Jordan as a winner expecting to enjoy the fruit of democratic change in the region. The Middle East expects him to completely overhaul his policy.
King Abdullah expressed the hope that "President Bush and Prime Minister Maliki [would] be able to come together in a common understanding on how to bring the sectarian conflict [in Iraq] much lower. We are very, very concerned for the future of all Iraqis, and we hope that there will be something dramatic," he said.
It is commonly agreed that a conference on a comprehensive Mideast settlement should also be attended by Syria and Iran. A similar idea has recently been expressed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
But is Washington ready to revise its Mideast strategy? Will it pay for the chance to stabilize the situation in Iraq with the assistance of Iran and Syria by softening its stance on Iran's nuclear program? Will it agree to talk with Hamas and Hizbollah and put pressure on Israel in a bid to step up the settlement of the Mideast conflict? Or will it consider such a price too high?
Before announcing his decision, President Bush will need to confer with the Pentagon and the Iraq Study Group co-chaired by James Baker.
Since he will have to do something to fill in the pause, this is probably why he decided to meet with Maliki at the time of the Forum's ministerial meeting.
U.S. projects intended to bring democracy to the Middle East have been criticized at length, but they have provided substantial assistance to the regional countries' efforts to promote democracy. Participants in the Forum meetings (mostly NGOs, university lecturers and journalists) prove that the American belief that the nations of the Middle East are striving for democratic change is justified.
Statements about democracy and the like, which Bush loves to make, will not be as out of place in Amman as they would be in Baghdad, Beirut or Jerusalem.
One more surprise is waiting for Bush in Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has sent the Palestinian leaders a package of political, economic and humanitarian offers, urging them to move towards peace. Israeli journalists describe Olmert's speech as a policy statement. It was made barely a day after Palestinians and Israelis agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza, where a major Israeli army operation had been going on since last summer. Palestinian groups have promised to suspend missile raids and other hostile actions, while Israel has pulled its troops out of the Palestinian enclave.
According to the local media, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice may visit Israel and the Palestinian territories this week to demonstrate U.S. support for their truce. She will not even have to go far out of her way, because Jordan, where she will accompany President Bush, borders on Israel and the West Bank.
The ministerial meeting in Jordan will be a good place to discuss not only problems in Iraq, but also the unexpected breakthrough in the Mideast peace process.
In other words, Bush's visit to the Middle East will most likely be successful, unless Israel and Palestine break off their shaky truce.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board
