MOSCOW, January 15 (RIA Novosti) Rosneft blocked from China/Russian pirates summoned to French court/German bank recognizes ruble as global currency/Moscow and Minsk face a new trade war/Five percent of Russians have confidence in the dollar
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Vedomosti
Rosneft blocked from China
Russian state-controlled oil company Rosneft has been unable to launch oil exports to China via Kazakhstan because the Russian government has not approved the company's plans.
Transneft and the Economic Development and Trade Ministry have not disclosed the reasons for blocking it. Experts are surprised at the decision because there are technological opportunities to be gained from such deliveries.
Rosneft exports oil to China by rail, but as soon as the Atasu-Alshankou pipeline was opened between Kazakhstan and China, the state-owned company decided to use the new route.
It filed an application to supply 1.2 million metric tons to China via Kazakhstan in 2007, said Sergei Bogdanchikov, the company's president.
Under Russian law, government approval is required for oil exports through the pipeline, and the Economic Development and Trade Ministry approves quarterly schedules.
"Our application for the route has not been approved," the company's official said. He refused to say why, but said that Rosneft was allowed to supply 200,000 metric tons of oil to the Pavlodarsky oil refinery in Kazakhstan in the first quarter of 2007.
Two sources close to the export schedule for the first quarter said that the document did not contain provisions for oil supplies to China via Kazakhstan.
In October Semyon Vainshtok, president of the Russian state oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, forecast that Russian oil transit to China via Kazakhstan through the Atasu-Alshankou oil pipeline in 2007 might reach 7 million metric tons.
Steven Dashevsky, chief analyst with the Aton brokerage, described the government's decision as strange, "especially after problems with Russian oil exports, which followed the recent suspension of oil transit via Belarus."
Technically, oil can be supplied along the route, said Dmitry Lukashov, an Alfa Bank analyst, since the company was allowed to deliver oil to the Pavlodarsky oil refinery.
The company said it would not give up. Rosneft's official said his company intends to file an application for deliveries along the route for the second quarter of 2007.
He added that oil would in any event be delivered to China by rail in planned volumes.
Kommersant
Russian pirates summoned to French court
The French recording industry association SNEP has announced it has filed suit against the owners of Russian websites selling music on the Internet, Allofmp3.com and Mp3sugar.com.
It is the third suit in the last six months filed by international recording companies seeking to protect their copyrights in Russia. The French association is unlikely to succeed, because both websites are considered legal in Russia, experts told the paper.
SNEP has demanded that Russian companies Mediaservices and X-Media Limited, which own the websites in question, stop "illegal" sales of records made by the French divisions of such international labels as EMI Music, Warner Music, Universal Music, etc.
Allofmp3.com held second place in Britain for the number of Mp3 files sold in 2005. The success was brought about by low prices - Western companies sell an Mp3 file at $1 on average, while the Russian website offered it 10 times cheaper. As to Mp3sugar.com, experts estimate that it has one of the fifth-largest turnovers among music sellers in Russia.
The law "On copyright and allied rights" allows website owners to sell records of Western majors both via direct contract and via the Russian Organization for Multimedia and Digital Systems (ROMDS), which has to pay royalty fees abroad.
Most companies, including Mediaservices, chose the latter scheme because it allowed them to avoid paying Western labels, which refuse to accept payments from the ROMDS that are too small.
According to the organization, Mediaservices pays 0.25 rubles ($0.0094) per downloaded track from its website, out of which the copyright holder is entitled to 0.15 rubles.
"Illegal downloads can be stopped only by closing down the websites, which requires an agreement on the state level," said Igor Ashmanov, managing partner with Ashmanov and Partners.
Although talks on Russia's WTO accession last autumn did take up closing down of Allofmp3.com, no final decision was made.
Biznes
German bank recognizes ruble as global currency
The German state-owned bank for economic recovery, Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau, has issued ruble-denominated bonds. It is the first time a German legal entity has used the Russian currency, and it represents a landmark event, even though the issue amount is just 2 billion rubles ($75.24 million).
"KfW's ruble debut is symbolically important, and is meant to gauge investors' response," said Alexander Dotkin, analyst with the bank Zenit.
"KfW has already issued bonds denominated in exotic currencies, such as the Turkish lira. This is another way for Western investors to diversify their portfolios," he said.
In Russia's case, the transfer from indicative to regular issues can be quick.
"Recognition of the ruble as a global currency is progressing fast," said Yaroslav Lisovolik, chief economist with Deutsche UFG. "The macroeconomic situation is stable, and the number of such issues will grow."
"Such issues are not made to attract money," said Alexei Bulgakov, a debt analyst with the Aton brokerage. "Perhaps a KfW client needed rubles."
KfW offers a profitability of 6%, but its rating from Standard & Poor's is AAA, which is higher than that of the best Russian issuers. In other words, it is now safer to invest rubles in Germany than in Russia.
Other ruble non-residents are also coming on board.
Germany's Hypothekenbank in Essen has recently held the first road show for Russian institutional investors. So far it only offers euro-denominated bonds, but may soon offer rubles as well.
The bank's chairman Hubert Schulte-Kemper said that it went after investors, and that if Russians were sufficiently interested in its offerings, it could consider issuing ruble-denominated bonds in a few years.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Moscow and Minsk face a new trade war
The two-day oil talks in Moscow settled the Russia-Belarus energy standoff. But now the two countries face a sugar war because the Kremlin has agreed to reduce the oil custom duty if Minsk limits sugar deliveries and lifts a score of limitations on Russian businesses in Belarus.
Minsk has asked for a tax-free quota of 400,000-450,000 metric tons of sugar for 2007, and for a 5% increase for 2008, whereas Moscow thinks the quota should be limited to 100,000 metric tons.
Otherwise, Russia will continue to import cane sugar from third countries, which is cheaper that Russian-made beetroot sugar, tax-free via Belarus.
The sugar export quotas Minsk has requested exceed the aggregate sugar production in Belarus.
Internal sugar consumption there is some 350,000 metric tons and production is barely 400,000 metric tons. However, the Union of Russian Sugar Producers (Soyuzrossakhar) said Belarus has been annually delivering to Russia from 420,000 to 480,000 metric tons of sugar in the past few years.
Not all economists in Russia support the idea of sugar duties on Belarus.
"A common economic space with neighbors is valuable as it is, and so Russia could easily tolerate some Belarusian cheating," said Ruslan Grinberg, director of the Economic Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
He said: "Duties in bilateral trade are silly and counterproductive, especially in the current cool period."
Izvestia
Five percent of Russians have confidence in the dollar
The prestige of the dollar in Russia has fallen more than its exchange rate in the past few years, according to sociologists from the Public Opinion Foundation.
A survey of 1,500 people from 100 cities and villages in 44 Russian regions showed that today the ruble was 12.5 times more preferable than the U.S. dollar among Russians.
Back in the summer of 2002, every third respondent believed in the strength of the dollar, but the share preferring the dollar dropped 85.7% by December 2006.
The situation was the reverse with the ruble, and the number of those who prefer it increased from 37% to 63%, both among the older generation, who have always mistrusted foreign currencies, as well as among the young.
Grigory Kertman, a chief analyst of the Public Opinion Foundation, said the bulk of young Russians aged 18-35 choose the ruble, while a meager 8% of "Pepsi generation" respondents have confidence in the dollar.
The interest in dollar fluctuations has also reduced lately. In January 2004, 42% of Russians followed dollar fluctuations, and today just 32% of respondents have such an interest.
Sociologists said there may be a few reasons the change in public opinion. Asked why the falling dollar makes them indifferent, Russians gave a simple answer: "I have never had dollars" - 66% of respondents confessed they had never kept dollars. "Nobody in our village has ever seen a dollar," a respondent said.
Another reason is that the strengthened ruble has displaced the dollar. The survey showed that today most Russians opted for the ruble. "Two-thirds of respondents who have ever dealt with the U.S. dollar have not held any in the past two or three years, or kept fewer dollars than before," Kertman said.
Nor do Russians expect the dollar to rise, and just 4% of respondents said they hoped the dollar would retain some of its positions in 2007.
