MOSCOW. (Dmitry Shusharin for RIA Novosti) - Dmitry Medvedev made a speech at the Davos forum. This time, Russia sent a very representative delegation there.
The declarations of the Russian First Deputy Prime Minister are interpreted as a statement of intent to pursue a neo-Liberal economic and political course.
It is common practice to view all recent speeches by Dmitry Medvedev and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov in the context of their potential succession to power. Nothing can change this practice although the Russian Constitution does not provide for the status of the "president's successor."
Nor did the Soviet Communist Party Rules contain such positions as "crown prince" or "tsarevitch." Under the Soviet government, the successor was chosen immediately after a party general secretary's death - he was the chairman of the funeral commission. We have just seen this tradition at work in Turkmenistan.
But Russia has little in common with Turkmenistan except for gas reserves. Yet, everyone keeps talking about the Kremlin and the successor. In a way, this is a deja vu experience - Vladimir Putin with his skyrocketing rating is expected to repeat what Yeltsin did with his two percent rating, notably, to persuade the Russians vote for whomever he points at. Simple math shows that success is inevitable although it should compel us to ponder over the paradoxes of history and politics.
Let's assume that the two deputy prime ministers are engaged in the information race. They have different lexicons and different groups of voters praise them for different accomplishments; each of them is connected (or associated through the media) with different centers of power, corporations, groups, and so on and so forth.
Positioning in the world arena is a very important factor for both. Until today, Sergei Ivanov was the obvious leader in this field. He has won the laurels of an independent diplomat a long time ago, and particularly consolidated his positions after Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India.
But diplomacy is different from one country to another, because there is no single outside world. Thus, Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov is obviously positioning himself as a major decision-maker. He deals with economic issues when he presents strategic interstate contracts to the public, as was the case during his recent trip to India. This gives him an indisputable advantage - the status of his audience is high; he is discussing specific issues; and his words imply real responsibility.
Dmitry Medvedev is a different case. He is in charge of national projects, which by definition implies his participation exclusively in Russian domestic affairs. Skillful PR can make the curator responsible for any problems related to these projects.
As for outside positioning, the status of the Chairman of the Gazprom Board of Directors does not give Medvedev any obvious advantages. In all global corporations, this is a high position but a top manager is not a key player. After two New Year shows with Ukraine and Belarus, there are many questions to Gazprom in Europe and beyond. Gazprom is ruled from the outside, and everyone knows the name of its manager. This is, of course, his informal compensation for a formal status.
For these reasons, he needed a leap in the information race, and he has made it. He succeeded because his response to his rival was asymmetrical. Medvedev primarily addressed the West's economic quarters, but not only them. He talked about Russia's political structure to the part of the political establishment which, although not directly involved in making decisions, exerts influence on Western public opinion. The format of his speech was very different from Ivanov's active missions.
In my modest opinion, these missions are more important than Medvedev's liberal verbiage. Ivanov is the man who acts "here and now." Medvedev has chosen the format of a presidential candidate, and this is why some media are talking about "Medvedev's declaration." This is a strong move, but we have to consider the context as well.
In the given context, nobody can guarantee that the leaders of the world economy and politics hold liberal economic positions, but this is not the main point. What matters more is that the Russians exaggerate by far the Western interest in their domestic affairs.
Some think that there exists a global conspiracy against Russia, while others believe that the West's most cherished dream is the triumph of democracy in this country. There is no contradiction between the two - just a different interpretation of what is implied by conspiracy. In real fact, there is no common attitude or interest. I believe that the West is much more interested in Russia's reply to Iran's proposal of a "gas OPEC" than in its cooperation with India or the program of its future president. This is just one piece of today's news.
But no matter how much is said about the foreign policy legitimization of Putin's successor, all speeches by deputy prime ministers are designed for home consumption. As for the outer world, it may prefer Medvedev's involvement in Gazprom to Ivanov's attention to specificity. After all, this is not such a bad combination - a liberal man with Gazprom connections.
We will learn in the near future how this will tell on the ratings of both successors.
Dmitry Shusharin is deputy editor-in-chief of Apologia magazine.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not represent the opinion of the editorial board
