ESTONIA
Political scientists are accusing Russia of imperious ambitions and departing from democratic principles. "The desperate Russians, who have lost faith in democracy, worship their past, including the victory in the Great Patriotic War, because they have no other ideals. They often do not want to acknowledge unpleasant historical facts of the past world war... Psychologically, Moscow draws some comfort from the belief that the Soviet Union's revival is still possible. It wants to control former Soviet republics economically, politically, and morally. It cannot accept that its neighbors are independent countries with their own interests and affairs." (Postimees, January 25).
Commenting on Vladimir Putin's visit to India, journalists have been writing about Russia's growing influence, and a change in the world's geopolitical situation. "It is easy to see that almost all of India's weapons are of Russian make. Only the uniforms are still being made in Britain... It is high time to pay attention to a rapid change in the world's alignment of forces. The Bush Administration has been involved in pointless efforts to change the Muslim world by dubious methods for more than five years now, whereas Moscow has established partnership with rapidly developing China and India. (Parnu Postimees, January 30).
LATVIA
Analysts describe the agreements reached during the Russian president's trip to New Delhi as a serious breakthrough in bilateral economic relations, which may have considerable influence on the world's correlation of forces. "India's rapid economic growth, and the ensuing demand for energy have allowed Putin to sign billion-dollar agreements. Now Russia is one of India's major partners not only in the power industry, but also in defense and space research." (Diena, January 26).
"Moscow has involved the gigantic India into the sphere of its geopolitical, and economic interests, and has brought closer its membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)... The Russian-Indian summit has made a tangible contribution into the accelerating change of the global balance of forces, which is not in favor of the U.S. or the West as a whole. (Biznes&Baltiya, January 30).
Experts believe Russia will soon respond to Alexander Lukashenko's threats to annul the recent agreement with Moscow on transit of oil to the West by building a pipeline bypassing Belarus. "Lukashenko's words were probably simply taken out of context or misinterpreted. But Russia has reacted quickly... Most probably, it will start building a pipeline via Unecha, Velikiye Luki, and Primorsk to kill two birds with one stone. The very start of its construction will make Lukashenko more pliable, and when he quits his post sooner or later, Russia will not need to worry about transit agreements with the new leader." (Telegraf, January 30).
LITHUANIA
The media have focused on LUKoil's supplies of high-octane gas to Latvia and Estonia. Experts consider this part of its plan to reach out in the West. "At a time when the Kremlin-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom is arriving in Europe amidst political storms, Russia's biggest private oil company LUKoil is quietly expanding its network of gas stations in the EU. For the time being, Europe is less concerned about its dependence on Russian oil than gas, although its imports of these energy sources are almost the same, and cover a quarter of the EU total energy requirements." (Verslo zinios, January 29).
UKRAINE
The press has been discussing who will be the first to join the WTO - Ukraine or Russia. Most commentators believe that the two countries are not likely to do it at the same time. "There is a view that they should enter the WTO together to avoid any contradictions. But it is hard to imagine their dynamic joint integration... The WTO may accept Russia and Ukraine with a minimal interval, so that the country which leaves its neighbor behind does not yet acquire full-fledged membership." (Glavred, January 29).
Commentators agree that Russian-Belarusian oil-and-gas squabble has finally buried the idea of a Union State. "The Russian-Belarusian conflict is not yet another family quarrel to be followed with reassurances of eternal friendship. Lukashenko will not be able to get away with playing the prodigal son, or feigning repentance to Moscow. Russia has written him off... The two countries will no longer have 'fraternal' relations. This conflict has destroyed the myth that political flattery can guarantee the Kremlin's thoughtful ('fraternal') attitude manifest in cheap oil and gas supplies."
(Den, January 24).
Some experts believe that Kiev has got a chance to become a regional leader. Minsk's entry into the Commonwealth of Democratic Choice and GUAM with Ukraine's mediation will allow their members to destroy the Kremlin's post-Soviet energy monopoly. "Under the circumstances, Belarus has a unique chance to join the Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian Commonwealth. Until all of its members become EU members, they should set up a system of collective energy security." (Den, January 24).
MOLDOVA
Russia's decision to lift a ban on meat supplies from Moldova has evoked a positive response. But the press is critical of Moscow for delays in returning Moldovan meat to the Russian market. "Some experts believe it will take a long time to prepare all the necessary documents. It took almost two years to send sanitary inspectors to Moldova. How much time will it take to sign the papers?" (Nezavisimaya Moldova, January 30).
GEORGIA
The idea about objective reasons behind the Russian-Georgian conflict is popular with the local media. The press believes that Tbilisi is striving for democracy, while Moscow is consolidating its imperial policy. "The Russian state is essentially an empire. It has its own interests in this region... It will resist any attempt to leave the sphere of its influence." (Akhali Taoba, January 26). "In the next year and a half, Georgian-Russian relations will depend on the domestic political competition in Russia. Georgia has become part of the argument in the struggle for power in the Kremlin and its anti-American policy. Under the circumstances, Georgia will not change anything, no matter what it does." (24 saati, January 29).
The media are negative about the purchase of eight major energy facilities by Czech Energo pro. Economic experts fear that RAO UES of Russia may be behind it. "It is surprising that the Russians were passive and the Czechs active during the privatization. The Russians were expected to be in the first ranks since UES officials openly talked about their interests in the Georgian energy industry. Foreign companies purchasing assets in different countries for resale to UES is an established practice. (Mteli kvira, January 29).
AZERBAIJAN
Commentators believe that Moscow's policy of covering up Tehran's nuclear ambitions is destroying Russia's prestige in the eyes of the world community. "Although Moscow is emphatic that the main goal of Igor Ivanov's (head of the Russian Security Council) visit to Iran is to find the best solution to the Islamic Republic's nuclear predicament, his own statements amount to an attempt to 'cover up' Tehran to the very end... Now this is becoming a serious problem for Moscow. The world no longer conceals its concern over Russian-Iranian 'friendship.' As a rule, Moscow says that it has levers of influence on Iran, and that there should be someone with whom the Iranians are ready to talk. However, Moscow has not succeeded so far either in dispelling the world's apprehensions over the Iranian nuclear program, or even in persuading the Iranian mullah-crates to change the tune." (Echo, January 30).
The opposition media have lashed out at Russia's proposals to invest in the Azerbaijani economy. They are viewed as absolutely unacceptable for an independent country. "The two countries are not likely to bring their trade to two billion dollars, as their presidents had planned... The apple of discord is the desire of both to sell natural gas to the West... Azerbaijan understands very well that deterioration in relations with Russia may produce even more deplorable results - possible harassment of Azerbaijanis living in Russia. The Kremlin is aware of this as well. This may be the reason why any proposals of Russian companies to take part in the development of the republic's economy start with demands of benefits... Almost all Russia's proposals on economic cooperation are beneath criticism." (Zerkalo, January 27).
KAZAKHSTAN
Experts are pointing to a change of accents in Astana's foreign policy. They predict that the Kazakh-Ukrainian alliance may soon become Moscow's serious energy rival. "After a change of government in Kazakhstan, which has revised a list of priorities, this Central Asian republic should not be viewed as 'Russia's strategic ally, or outpost.' The key positions occupied by the old elite with its traditional orientation to Russia, have now been filled by those who are drawn to the U.S. and China... Nursultan Nazarbayev and Viktor Yushchenko have a lot to discuss. Clearly, Kiev is interested in Kazakh energy resources, while Astana would like to have access to the Ukrainian market and attractive investment projects. Moreover, the existence of the large-scale transportation network, and the EU's growing share in trade with Ukraine are making the latter a convenient bridgehead for Kazakhstan's expansion to Europe." (Liter.kz, January 26).
KYRGYZSTAN
The media continue following the government's efforts to minimize the negative consequences of Russia's new migration law. "There are more than 300,000 Kyrgyz citizens in Russia; most of them are employed in the Russian markets. After April 1, 2007 they will not be able to work in Russia." (Kabar, January 25). "The Kyrgyz parliament is considering adoption of dual citizenship, and is going to ask the Russian government to sign a relevant agreement with Bishkek." (Obshchestvenny reiting, January 25).
Commentators are concerned over the forthcoming massive return of Kyrgyz guest workers. "People in Kyrgyzstan fear that the home-coming of guest workers will exacerbate social problems and the criminal situation." (Obshchestvenny reiting, January 25).
The press maintains that growing xenophobia in major Russian cities is making the bad situation much worse. "The status of guest workers in Moscow has seriously deteriorated. The situation in Yekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk is not much better. Moscow-born residents are negative even to their own compatriots from other regions of Russia, to say nothing of foreigners." (Alas, January 25).
UZBEKISTAN
Experts are concerned about the aggravation of the situation in the countries adjacent to Central Asia. "The war in Iraq is pouring flames on the entire southern 'arc of instability.' The developments around Lebanon, Iran, and Syria are a source of apprehensions... The events unfolding around Iran are becoming extremely important for Central Asia. For the time being, Russia is the inhibiting factor... Central Asia may be faced with instability along the entire perimeter of its southern borders. In this context, continued consolidation of contacts both within Central Asia and between it, on the one hand, and Russia and China, leading partners in the SCO and CSTO, on the other." (Uzbekistan Today, January 26).
TAJIKISTAN
The press is accusing RusAl of its failure to comply with commitments on the construction of economic facilities in Tajikistan. "Tajikistan will finish the construction of the Rogun hydro-power station on its own... RusAl has not honored its contract obligations. Moreover, RusAl has failed to build new capacities at the Tajik Aluminum Plant, to build a new aluminum plant in the south of the republic, and to train specialists." (Avesta, January 25).
The press maintains that the 2004 agreement on cooperation in building the Rogun hydropower station has rested on geopolitical considerations from the very start. "At that time, Russia's positions in Central Asia were very weak, and Russian border guards were ousted from the republic. Russia wanted to strengthen its foothold in Tajikistan, and the rest of Central Asia. The agreement was designed with this aim in view. It was also viewed as an instrument of pressure on fresh water consumers in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. This pressure has brought some dividends to Russia." (Zindagi, January 25).
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