ESTONIA
Analysts believe that now that the Latvian Parliament has given up its claims to Pytalovo district in Russia's Pskov Region, Russia and Latvia can sign a border treaty as soon as February. In that case, Russia will lash out at Estonia. "Estonia may become Russia's number one enemy. The Russian propaganda machine was directed against Latvia for many years, criticizing it for its educational reform or nationalistic attitudes. Summer public opinion polls showed that 46% of the Russian respondents considered Latvia the most hostile nation. The relevant figure for Estonia was 28%... Now that Latvia has retreated on the border issue, Russia may crack down on Estonia." (Eesti Paevaleht, February 3).
Some publications have suggested following Latvia's example. "The Latvian Parliament's decision... shows that foreign policy interests may prevail over domestic political games... Clearly, it is time for Estonia to do something so its border treaty with Russia becomes valid."(Postimees, February 3).
LATVIA
Members of the Latvian Parliament have qualified the treaty on the border with Russia as an urgent piece of legislation, which means it will go through two readings instead of three. The media explain this procedural rush by pressure from the business interests behind the ruling parties, and by Latvia's plan to join the Nord Stream gas project. "There is an interest in economic projects in energy and transit..." Most often, the media have been writing about the idea to build a gas depot in Dobele and an increase in rail transit of Russian oil through Latvia." (Diena, February 1).
The press has extensively covered the visit by President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Yevgeny Primakov to Latvia. Commentators see it as the start of normalization in bilateral relations. "As former head of Russian intelligence, the foreign ministry, and the government, [Primakov] is an authority in the Kremlin... The politician has kept his shadow influence... Primakov's visit may not only promote business contacts, but also facilitate high-profile official meetings... Considering his personality, it is logical to assume that Moscow is showing its readiness to remove all obstacles to goodneighborly relations between the two countries." (Telegraf, February 5).
LITHUANIA
Analysts explain Latvia's decision to renounce territorial claims against Russia by its desire to promote its integration with the European Union (EU). "Now it seems that the question has been resolved. This is good for Riga because its border with Russia is also the EU's eastern frontier. Latvia's duty is to protect it in accordance with EU standards. There is also another difficulty - frequent traffic jams stretching for miles on both sides of the border. There will be no new checkpoints until the border treaty is signed." (Penki.lt, February 2).
UKRAINE
At a news conference in the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about the conditions under which Kiev could receive access to Russia's raw material assets. This statement has provoked extensive debates in the press on the future of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Some media outlets have suggested that Kiev should take advantage of this opportunity, or at least discuss prospects of cooperation with Russia. "Ukraine has not received such lucrative proposals from the Kremlin in 15 years of independence. It remains to be seen whether there is a catch in Putin's initiative... An alliance with Ukraine may demonstrate to Russia's European partners its readiness to abide by civilized rules of the game... Modernization of the Ukrainian gas transit network will require about $3 billion... It makes sense for Ukraine to enter talks with Russia." (Glavred, February 5).
Some media outlets believe that the delay in setting up the proposed gas consortium will lead not only to direct economic losses but also to the devaluation of Kiev's favorite trump card. "For Ukraine, its gas pipe is a kind of a mascot... The government has retained its monopoly on the pipe, but has nothing to fill it with, and is trading 'air.' Moscow's growing economic offensive is reducing chances of access to alternative sources of energy... Nothing will help Ukraine make money on the pipe. Kiev's desire to control it betrays its hope to revert to this promising subject again, and continue siphoning off gas." (Ukraine Daily, February 2).
However, the majority of publications maintain that any form of participation by Moscow in controlling Ukraine's gas transit system presents a serious threat to its sovereignty. They have dismissed Kiev's hopes to get access to Russia's hydrocarbons. "All gas produced in Russia [potentially for export] is being sold to Gazprom. No other company has access to the Russian pipe... Moscow may change the rules of the game." (Zerkalo nedeli, February 3). "By ensnaring itself in this huge fraud, Ukraine will not get cheap gas. But it will have to pay for the dubious pleasure of tapping Russia's resources with its last bulwark of economic independence." (Delovaya stolitsa, February 5).
ARMENIA
The media are critical of Russia's intention to invest in a refinery for Iranian oil in Armenia. They have described this project as ambitious and unrealistic. "The project would be good for Armenia, if it were not for its many drawbacks... Firstly, why refine Iranian oil in Armenia when it is cheaper to do it right on site [in Iran]? Secondly, this project will do irreparable damage to Armenia's environment, and thirdly, as with any political project, it will not yield economic dividends." (Pan ARMENIAN. Net, February 1).
GEORGIA
Experts agree that in relations with Tbilisi, the Kremlin has placed its bets on economic levers. Some analysts think that this will further escalate the Russian-Georgian conflict. "This is no longer simply a policy of confrontation. Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi are more along the lines of enmity. Putin is confident in this struggle - he has oil and gas. These levers are better than small arms... Apart from its dependence on Russian gas, Tbilisi is involved in a serious struggle with separatist authorities... To sum up, the Putin-Saakashvili war continues." (Alia, February 3).
To the contrary, other analysts believe that bilateral relations should stabilize because Russia is gaining increasing control over Georgia's economy. "Russia has made excellent use of economic levers. In expert estimates, Russian businessmen possess a considerable portion of Georgian property. Why would Russia want to destabilize Georgia when it owns Georgian plants or other property? Any destabilization will reduce Russia's profits." (Mteli Kvira, February 5).
AZERBAIJAN
The press has lashed out at the Russian president for his position on a settlement in Nagorny Karabakh. "At a news conference in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has come up with a 'fresh' idea for a settlement in Karabakh. He urged the sides to jointly produce Agdam wine, which was popular in Soviet times... Russia is already mocking this issue... There are no grounds to expect a settlement of the conflict in the near future. Russia knows how to prevent Azerbaijan's integration with the West." (Yeni Musavat, February 3).
The media suspect that by talking about instability in the Persian Gulf, Moscow is pursuing its own economic and other interests. "It is possible that by giving ostentatious support to Iran and promising to facilitate its ambitions in the Gulf, Russia is deliberately trying to exacerbate tensions. Any political instability in this region would mean skyrocketing oil prices, with all the ensuing economic and political consequences for Russia and the West." (Echo, February 1).
UZBEKISTAN
Experts are critical of the change in Russia's laws on immigration, which allows other CIS residents to obtain Russian citizenship. They have called it a very dangerous road that will lead to an impasse. The appearance of too many immigrants with different traditions, cultures, and ways of life may lead to a repetition of what happened in France: massive protests by later generations of immigrants. "Having become Russians... and received the right to vote and be elected, the former guest workers, or their children, will ask themselves: There are so many of us - why aren't we in power? As Russian citizens, they will have the right to think so... There is another problem for the indigenous population: The national traditions of immigrants are strong and immune to outside change." (Fergana.Ru, January 31).
"Russia is now in the same situation as the European countries, which were flooded by immigrants from former colonies in the 1950s and 1960s. Judging by the social and cultural parameters of this process and its aftermath, Russia is similar to France, where the immigrant protests reached their peak in 2005. Migrants from former Soviet Central Asia are likely to be the backbone of these hypothetical riots in Russia." (Fergana.Ru, February 1).
TAJIKISTAN
The media have been accusing Russia of attempts to considerably reduce Tajikistan's share in the construction of the Rogun hydropower station. "The first intergovernmental agreement between Tajikistan and Russia on completing the construction of the Rogun hydropower station was signed in April 1994. Both sides were supposed to build it as equal partners... RusAl emerged in Tajikistan in 2004... Now Tajikistan will be able to claim just a portion of shares in the project - no more than 25% of the remaining 50%. In other words, Tajikistan may practically lose control over this important strategic facility." (Asia-Plus, February 1).
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