ESTONIA
Commentators believe that Moscow has made a huge mistake by supporting the UN Security Council resolution on sanctions against Tehran. Its attempts to enhance its influence in the Middle East are being frustrated by its willful partner. "This fact (Russia's investment in Iran over many years) cannot prevent Tehran from declaring one day: 'The evil sits in Moscow, not in Washington.'" (Postimees, March 21).
The media have observed that in discussing the deployment of U.S. ABM components in Poland and the Czech Republic, nobody has even mentioned the threat to the security of the Baltic nations in the event of war. But analysts agree that the ABM defense will reduce the threat from Russia. "In the estimate of U.S. intelligence, Russia has substantially built up its armed forces, and now its army has reached and even surpassed the Soviet level... Although a missile shield in Europe will not resolve all the problems, it is virtually the only chance to curb the aggressor." (Parnu Postimees, March 23).
The press continues writing about Estonia's national presidential regalia currently kept in Moscow, as local journalists claim. "The current Russian leaders will not return the regalia to us... (President) Toomas Hendrik Ilves even said the thieves are never asked to return what they have stolen. Usually, stolen things are replaced with new ones. Let's make new ones. Let... the presidential chain remain in the Kremlin as a reminder of the suffering... of many Estonians during the Soviet occupation." (Postimees, March 23).
LATVIA
The media are positive about the signing of the Russian-Latvian border treaty, which attests to the warming up of bilateral relations. "Compared to previous periods of deterioration in our relations, the signing of the border treaty looks like the first ray of the spring sun. Needless to say, to sign such a high-level document the sides were bound to compromise, at least to some extent. This means the Kremlin has decided to improve relations with Latvia." (Dienas bizness, March 27).
The press believes that lack of confidence may prompt the Kremlin to use undemocratic methods of pressure on its political opponents. "Garry Kasparov [currently he heads the radical United Civil Front] is famous in the world of chess for his brilliant mind and ability to prevail over the adversary in a virtually desperate situation to score a victory. But does Kasparov realize that this time it is not a Grand Master but Putin facing him across the board? His understanding of chess is quite different - if Putin senses a threat, he will not search for an ingenious answer, but will break the chessboard right over his rival's head." (Republika, Marfch 23).
The press has been covering the decision of the Russian authorities to unite all major shipbuilding companies into a single state-controlled consortium. "The Russian leaders have launched this reform out of necessity... The Soviet Union's disintegration played a negative role - many modern Soviet shipyards were left outside of Russia, above all in Ukraine... The project's strategic goal is to step up civilian shipbuilding for transporting gas, oil and chemicals, and offshore oil and gas drilling rigs. Russia has put shipbuilding high on its list of economic priorities because its main occupation - energy production - is increasingly moving from land to sea, and it will need a big fleet to transport energy." (Dienas bizness, March 22).
LITHUANIA
The media have paid much attention to the Treaty of Rome that laid the foundations of the European Union 50 years ago. Analysts believe that Lithuania's integration into the European Union (EU) is going smoothly largely because of its firm position on Russia, particularly in energy security. Attributing European unity to Soviet threat, analysts describe Lithuania as an outpost on the border of the democratic world. "Ten years ago Lithuanian membership of the EU seemed possible but very remote. Today, the voice of our country is heard in Europe at least on those issues that are vital for Lithuania - energy security, a nuclear power station, and the EU's eastern policy (Varslo zinios, March 23).
UKRAINE
The press has been discussing why Moscow has cancelled President Viktor Yushchenko's visit scheduled for March 21-22. Journalists note that recently Yushchenko has not shown any readiness for a reasonable compromise in dialogue with Moscow. Moreover, he has made some overtly provocative statements. "Who was going to visit Moscow? [As a popular song goes,] 'Not an enemy, nor a friend, just a stranger...' He got what he deserved as a 'stranger'... Incidentally, Mr. Yushchenko has started talking about setting up a Soviet occupation museum... What a brainstorm to take to Moscow!" (From-ua, March 22).
Analysts believe that Ukraine is likely to be drawn into the geopolitical games of the great powers, and see a way out in its Euro-Atlantic integration. "Is it in Ukrainian national interests to support Vladimir Putin's statement in Munich, which has brought back memories of the Cold War? ... What about encroachments of Russian high-ranking officials on the Crimea, especially on Sevastopol? ... Are Ukrainian energy interests identical to Russia's? ... We should not forget about Ukraine's strategic cooperation with Poland and the United States." (Den, March 23).
MOLDOVA
The press has focused on a Chisinau visit by a Russian Federal Assembly (parliament) delegation. Journalists have noted Russia's concern over Moldova's pro-Western foreign policy: "Russian Duma deputy Nikolai Pavlov said he was perplexed by the fact that one of the permanent parliamentary commissions in the Moldovan legislative body is in charge of 'international policy and European integration' rather than 'relations with Russia, or at least, with the CIS.' This is how he articulated his discontent: "That large plant we saw in Chisinau yesterday was built by Comrade Stalin in 1944, and this is why we are concerned about Moldova's priorities. If you want to follow Comrade Saakashvili's example, this is one thing. But if you want to be real friends with us, this is another thing, and if so, we are ready to meet you halfway." (Flux, March 22).
ARMENIA
Experts believe that the government's priority should be to make the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline that was commissioned on March 19 a transit artery. "The Iran-Armenia gas pipeline has provided our country with an alternative source of gas supply. But it is more important that the pipeline should become a transit one... The situation suggests that our region will eventually distance itself from Russia. The policies of Georgia and Azerbaijan, and Russia's tough line are leading events in this direction. This is why we should take care of ourselves." (Aikakan Zhamanak, March 21).
Political scientists emphasize that Yerevan should try to keep the Armenian leg of the pipe away from Russia. "We must never allow Russia to get hold of the Armenian section of the pipeline... The bulk of our energy capacities are in Russian hands. Experience has shown that when Russia buys a facility, it stops working." (Aikakan Zhamanak, March 21).
GEORGIA
The media have quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying that the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr are not directly linked with the resolution of the Kosovo predicament. They interpret this statement as a signal of a change in Russian policy towards breakaway republics. "Lavrov has expressed an opinion that is different from what President Putin has said on this subject... Putin has repeatedly voiced the 'wrong position', saying that this precedent will be followed on the post-Soviet space." (24 saati, March 22). "Something is changing in Russia's policy... Russia and the West may strike a deal - for instance, Russia will promise not to react strongly to Kosovo, while NATO will freeze our region's entry into the alliance." (Rezonansi, March 23).
For lack of official information on Mikhail Saakashvili's unexpected visit to Armenia, experts are trying to guess what he is discussing with his Armenian counterpart. "Armenia is in fact isolated. If this situation persists, Moscow and Tehran will tear Yerevan away from the West for good... Georgia is very concerned about this. Tbilisi does not want Armenia to lose independence." (Rezonansi, March 23).
KAZAKHSTAN
Experts believe that energy competition between Russia and Kazakhstan prevents their political integration. "For Russia, our republic is not only its partner in the CIS, EurAsEC or CSTO, but also a rival with too many ambitions. Now the two countries have found themselves in an awkward situation where they will have to combine political partnership with economic competition... No doubt, this will not destroy Moscow-Astana established alliance on many political issues, but the fact remains that they will have to follow new rules and recognize each other's right to pursue their own economic interests regardless of anyone's wishes." (Liter.kz, March 21).
Analysts are skeptical about Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's new integration initiative for the post-Soviet space. "After the talks (in Moscow), both presidents diplomatically reassured everyone that they were pleased with the outcome of the talks, but they looked far from happy ... A single economic space on which both presidents have worked so much is not an effective project. Perhaps the title is wrong? At the meeting, the presidents spoke about a Eurasian Economic Union - Nazarbayev voiced this initiative for the first time in his annual address to the Kazakh people. Let's hope that the EEU will be a happier abbreviation than the SES." (Karavan, March 23).
KYRGYZSTAN
Journalists are worried about the growing xenophobic attitudes in Russia and the ensuing direct threat to Kyrgyz migrant workers there. The press quotes a potential migrant: "I was summoned for an interview at a newspaper's editorial department ... They were not interested in my registration or citizenship... A senior designer liked the way I had done my assignment... But when I went to the boss's office, he glanced at my non-Russian looks and gave me a polite brush-off." (Bishkek Times, March 23).
UZBEKISTAN
Experts note that Russia's relations with Central Asian gas republics are not developing smoothly. They think that if it stands to gain from it, Uzbekistan will be ready to make friends with the U.S. again at the expense of its relations with Russia. Kazakhstan may step up its search for alternative gas export routes to Europe and China bypassing Russia although implementation of these plans depends on Moscow's readiness for concessions to Astana. "Uzbekistan must always have strong motives for cooperation with other countries. Today, Putin and Russia have great authority in Uzbekistan. But Tashkent is ready to quarrel with Russia if it deserves this... Statistics show that over a half of all Russian investors in Uzbekistan are swindlers. Criminal proceedings have been instituted against some profiteers that have bought cheaply unique Uzbek assets for reselling." (Fergana.Ru, March 22). "In the past year, President Nazarbayev persuaded Russia to pay more for Kazakh gas. He made it clear that otherwise Astana would lay alternative gas routes... Kazakhstan is increasingly playing in the CIS the role of another pole that is not hostile to Russia, but not one of its satellites, either... You wanted a multi-polar world? Here's a multi-polar CIS." (Fergana.Ru, March 21).
TAJIKISTAN
NATO's attempts to draw Tajikistan into its sphere of operation are threatening its neutrality and relations with Russia. The press described the recent visit of the Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev to Dushanbe as a NATO-inspired step that runs against the grain of Russian policy in the region. "Aliyev's visit looks very strange against the background of rather sluggish diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Tajikistan. This is the first official visit in the history of bilateral relations. It would be logical to think about the reasons behind it... It is possible that the only reason that prompted Baku to develop contacts with Dushanbe as a matter of priority is Azerbaijan's potential involvement in the Afghan campaign on NATO's part... At any rate, Aliyev's visit and the signing of a big package of documents will substantially change the political and economic relations in the Caspian and Central Asian regions." (Fakty i kommentarii, March 22).
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