MOSCOW, April 5 (RIA Novosti) Washington offers Russia its ABM umbrella/Poland's persistence creates problems for Russia, EU - expert/ Russia makes advances to Turkmenistan/ Gazprom playing Italian card/ Shtokman development postponed for 3 years
Vremya Novostei
Washington offers Russia its ABM umbrella
Americans want to cooperate with Russia in anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense, according to Eric Edelman, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. He said the State Department and the Pentagon were preparing for intense consultations with Russia on the ABM issue.
The statement could signify a U-turn in Russian-U.S. relations on one of the most delicate issues, as long as it is not merely diplomatic rhetoric.
Edelman, aged 55, who has Russian roots, is considered a "hawk," rather than a liberal. He said if the forthcoming ABM consultations failed, the U.S. would not allow Moscow to dictate its actions in bilateral relations with other countries.
Some aspects of Edelman's speech demonstrate that the Pentagon's offer is just a political maneuver that will not be backed up by action. He inferred that the U.S. might cover part of Russia's territory with its ABM umbrella. Yet he reiterated that since this is an American system, Washington would have total command and control and there would only be one key to the system.
A general in the headquarters of the Russian Strategic Missile Force said: "Does he [Edelman] think the Russian military are innocent lambs who will give up the tiniest part of influence in the crucial area of defending the country from an aerospace attack? Everyone knows the iron rule: strategic weapons are not to be entrusted even to friends and allies."
The general explained the rush on the part of the U.S. to move elements of its ABM system to Europe as the "questionable service record" of Polish missile silos.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said these silos "look alarmingly like launchers for intercontinental ballistic missiles."
In other words, nobody knows what type of missiles these silos may house in a few years.
Vedomosti
Poland's persistence creates problems for Russia, EU - expert
Controversial signals from Warsaw surrounding its readiness to lift the veto on the European Union's talks with Russia are proof that the "meat ban" is aimed not so much against Moscow as Brussels. Poland wants more respect from Europe.
The European Commission's Spokesperson Johannes Laitenberger said yesterday that Poland was ready to lift the veto on talks about a new strategic partnership agreement between the EU and Russia. However, Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said later that the conditions remained unchanged: Moscow must lift the ban on imports of Polish meat and agricultural products and accept Europe's demands on energy at the talks.
Poland vetoed the talks in November 2006 in response to Moscow's economic sanctions. In November 2005, Russia banned meat and vegetable imports from Poland suspecting that they were being imported from third countries that were dangerous from the phytosanitary and veterinary point of view. There has been no breakthrough in negotiations on Polish products lately.
Last autumn, experts said that Poland's move was caused by its discontent with how it was treated in the EU and by the division in Europe into old and new members. Brussels has recently made some concessions to Poland, simultaneously putting pressure on it. Perhaps, yesterday's statement by the EU press service pursued the same goal. Germany, which is now presiding over the EU, wants to settle existing disagreements ahead of the EU-Russia summit scheduled for May 18. The previous summit was held in Helsinki and discussed "backup topics" as talks on the new agreement were disrupted.
Brussels is rushing things, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the Russia in Global Politics magazine. If the European Commission cannot announce the launch of talks in May in Samara, the question will be asked as to why this summit is necessary, he said. "There will be nothing to talk about there."
Moscow will benefit if Brussels makes Warsaw separate the economic issues from the political. Signing a new agreement will in any case be an important geopolitical and image-shaping move, as Russia is gambling on Europe and not the United States. This is also economically justified as the EU accounted for 52.7% of Russia's foreign trade in 2006.
Kommersant
Russia makes advances to Turkmenistan
Moscow hopes to win favor with the new Turkmen president of, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, successor to the late Turkmenbashi. The Russian side is particularly anxious about its future business interests in the Turkmen energy sector, because western representatives are actively flocking to Ashgabat and lobbying for supplies of hydrocarbon raw materials from Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia.
Experts believe that the key objective of the visit by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Turkmenistan, which begins today, will be future bilaterial cooperation in the production and transportation of gas. The Kremlin is particularly concerned by the resumption of plans for a trans-Caspian gas pipeline lobbied chiefly by the United States. The project envisages the transportation of Turkmen gas to Europe along the Caspian Sea through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, but not Russia. A month ago, Steven Mann, the U.S. State Department's principal deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asian affairs, flew to Ashgabat. Two weeks ago, Georgia's Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli discussed details of the project with Berdymukhammedov and the Turkmen leader accepted an invitation to visit Tbilisi.
At the moment Ashgabat is undecided. Lavrov is supposed to give it a push in the right direction. As a lever, Moscow will be using its long-term agreement on gas cooperation (ending in 2028). In a broader context, it wants Ashgabat to honor its pledge to help Russian oil and gas companies to expand their presence in Turkmenistan. Moscow has offered to modernize the existing branch of the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline and, in addition, to build a Caspian branch that will run along the eastern shore of the Caspian through Kazakhstan towards Russia.
Moscow is planning a long drawn-out campaign to woo Ashgabat. In two weeks' time, Vagit Alekperov, the LUKoil chief, is going to the Turkmen capital. He will be followed by Yury Shafranik, board chairman of the Union of Russian Oil and Gas Industrialists. However, it looks as if Vladimir Putin will do the rest of the talking. Lavrov is expected to persuade the Turkmen president to come to Moscow, preferably before the end of April. If, however, Berdymukhammedov manages to slot in a visit to Tbilisi first, then perhaps there will be nothing left to negotiate.
Gazeta
Gazprom playing Italian card
Gas assets of the Yukos oil company, which was declared bankrupt last summer, have been sold at an auction to Italy's Eni, not to Gazprom. Fearing claims from Yukos shareholders, Gazprom requested that its Italian partner temporarily hold its own stake in the oil subsidiary that it needs so much.
Eni, Italy's largest oil and gas company, paid 151.5 billion rubles ($5.82 billion) for a 20% stake in Gazprom Neft, 100% of Arcticgas shares, and 100% of Urengoil shares. This sum is slightly higher than the starting price.
It transpired that earlier Eni signed a secret option agreement with Gazprom for the sale to Eni of a Gazprom Neft stake. According to the Financial Times, under this agreement Gazprom will be able to use the option for one to three years, while Eni will get a seat on Gazprom Neft's board of directors and will be able to include part of its reserves in its accounting reports. This is in line with the intentions of the Italian company interested in getting access to Russian oil and gas reserves.
However, Russian analysts believe that Gazprom's fear of claims was not the case. "If Gazprom had directly participated in the auction and bought a 20% stake in Gazprom Neft, the monopoly would have had over 95% of that company's shares," said Yekaterina Kravchenko, an analyst with the BrokerCreditService investment company. "In that case, Gazprom would have been legally obliged to make an offer to Gazprom Neft's minority shareholders on the buyout of their remaining shares." This would require big spending from Gazprom (about $1 billion), and the company is not yet ready for it, Kravchenko explained.
"Most probably, Gazprom signed an agreement with Eni allowing the Italian company to purchase a stake in Gazprom Neft and Yukos gas assets. In exchange, Gazprom will receive shares in Eni's energy distribution capacities in Europe, which have long been sought by the Russian holding," Kravchenko said. She does not rule out that Gazprom was also promised participation in the development of Eni's fields in Libya.
Gazeta
Shtokman development postponed for 3 years
Gas supplies from the Shtokman gas condensate field in the Barents Sea will not start until 2013, said a representative from Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom yesterday.
The huge field off the northern coast of Russia is the resource base for Gazprom's key project, the Nord Stream pipeline, which is to be put into operation in 2010. The pipeline will connect Russia directly with Germany bypassing transit countries. The license agreement for the Shtokman field envisages that production will also start in 2010. However, the gas monopoly is still undecided about the development model, although only three years are left before the launch of commercial production.
Under the company's long-term balance (which is yet to be endorsed by the board of directors), its exports are to grow by 100 billion cu m by 2015. But its production may have fallen by 150 billion cu m a year by that time. This factor has made the European Union doubt Gazprom's ability to honor existing supply contracts. Because of these fears, Europe has proposed that the Shtokman project be changed from liquefied natural gas to pipeline gas.
This will definitely help Gazprom to save face in front of foreign partners, but it will distract it from its long-time goal of conquering the LNG market. Earlier the monopoly was expected to produce about 22.5 billion cu m of gas annually during the project's first stage, supplying about 14 million metric tons of LNG to international markets. The first supplies were expected in 2012. Yesterday, however, Gazprom's representative Alexander Shaikhutdinov dispelled this illusion. LNG supplies from Shtokman will not begin until 2014, he said.
Analysts say that the reason for the delay could be Gazprom's technical inability to carry out the project on its own. Indirect proof of that could be found in the recent meeting between the company's CEO Alexei Miller and French Total's CEO Christophe de Margerie. Alexander Blokhin, analyst with the investment bank Antanta Capital, said, "Total has not always been successful in developing its oil business in Russia, but it has extensive experience of LNG production. It was one of the first to enter this market."
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