ESTONIA
The media has been concerned that the signing of the Russian-Latvian border treaty may increase pressure on Estonia both from the European Union and Russia. "Now, Estonia remains the only Baltic nation not to have a border treaty with Russia. Who is to blame for this? Is it only Moscow that keeps talking about Estonia having joined the Soviet Union voluntarily, and ignoring the Tartu peace treaty? But the Latvians were even under stronger pressure from Moscow. Yet they have signed the treaty and feel quite comfortable... Riga has clearly realized, as Helsinki did at one time, that it is not possible to build relations with Russia exclusively through Brussels. It is hard to predict when Tallinn understands this as well." (Postimees, March 28). "The EU hopes that the Latvian-Russian breakthrough will show the way for Estonia," said spokeswoman for the European Commission Emma Udwin... A European official who preferred to remain anonymous said that the message for Tallinn is short - 'Do it.' Brussels does not care about the terms." (Eesti Paevaleht, March 28). "Pressure on Estonia will be mounting, although it won't be direct...In the 1990s, Russia continuously criticized Latvia for alleged violations of minority rights and exoneration of Nazism whereas now it is silent on Latvia's score, and has even offered a reward - better terms of transit. Russian criticism is now spearheaded against Estonia... Russia not only wants to discredit Tallinn but also to set it at loggerheads with Riga." (Eesti Paevaleht, March 28).
LATVIA
Most commentators believe that Russia and Latvia have concluded a mutually beneficial deal by signing the border treaty, even though it will not solve all bilateral problems. Having given up its territorial claims, Riga will be able to develop mutually advantageous economic cooperation with Russia. "By signing the treaty, the government has flung its doors open for Russia's investment. Without an official document and Putin's blessing, few Russian investors dared deal with Latvia. Meanwhile, Russia is bursting with petrodollars - so, why not invest them in a friendly EU country?" (Telegraf, March 28).
The "dead donkey's ears" that Putin had famously promised to Latvia instead of Pytalovo (a territory claimed by Latvia) is going to turn into something after all - a gas depot in Dobele and resumption of oil transit through Ventspils... The Latvian delegation's major victory in Moscow was a gas breakthrough rather than a border treaty. Gas supplies, tariffs, and, most importantly, Latvia's participation in the Nord Stream were discussed at top level, and, obviously with very good results." (Telegraf, March 29).
LITHUANIA
The media writes that by signing a border treaty with Russia, Latvia has "betrayed" the Baltic interests. "Russia continues its carrot-and-stick policy towards the Baltic nations. Now that Latvia has signed this dubious border treaty with Russia, Riga will, most probably, receive a reward... Yesterday, President Putin mentioned that the Latvians can now expect Moscow's gratitude." (Lietuvos Rytas, March 29). "Why does Russia need Latvia? It is not difficult to guess, considering that Lithuania and Poland want to become self-sufficient in energy and are persuading other Baltic nations to do the same. Therefore, Latvia is very likely to be showered with Russian presents, and not because of its pragmatic approach to the border treaty. It seems that Latvia has been offered an all-embracing mega deal, whereas the border treaty is merely a cover-up for the real reasons behind the thaw in bilateral relations." (Lietuvos Rytas, March 31).
UKRAINE
The media believes that neither Russia, nor Ukraine has a clear strategy of bilateral relations, but dialogue with Moscow may be upgraded if it gives up its imperial ambitions. "The prospects will depend on the ability of the political elites in both countries to realize the value of bilateral ties and irreversibility of Ukraine's choice of the European and Euro-Atlantic course. If this is done, we will give up the unrealistic projects of integration into structures with supra-national bodies and will devote more attention to bilateral contacts, the potential of which has not been exhausted yet." (Den, March 31).
Some experts maintain that Russia has a stake on further escalation of tensions in Ukraine because this allows it to exert more pressure on Kiev. "If confrontational attitudes are fanned up, and tensions mount, street clashes may break out... This will benefit Russia, which has always stood to gain from destabilization in our country." (Gazeta po-kievsky, April 2).
MOLDOVA
The media are blaming Russia for impeding Moldova's progress to the Euro-Atlantic community. "It is possible that in the near future... the peace process will be frozen indefinitely... Russia will do everything it can to freeze the situation and will not withdraw its troops from the region." (Moldova Suverana, March 28).
At the same time, commentators predict that the Kremlin may agree to Moldova's reunification but only if it can control the entire country. "Russia wants to see Moldova toe the line as before, or at least to keep its military, political and economic presence in Transdnestr. Moldova's renunciation of its eastern regions for the sake of EU entry is naive and has no future. It could only lead to the emergence of a new Kaliningrad on the left bank of the Dniester. (Flux, March 30).
GEORGIA
The press is skeptical about a statement by the president of unrecognized Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapsh, who has offered Moscow to mount a radar in the republic as a counterbalance to American radars. Experts see this as evidence of Moscow's serious intentions not to yield control of the Caucasus to the United States. "Bagapsh is trying to blackmail Georgia with this initiative. Obviously, Moscow and Sukhumi have shown their cards. They are trying to prevent Georgia from joining NATO, and are doing all they can to provoke this country into war." (Rezonansi, March 29). "Moscow has become so convinced that Washington will deploy radars in the Caucasus that it has immediately shoved a mike to Bagapsh... Russia has cynically shown the world once again who the boss is. Moscow will not forego Eastern Europe either, or will at least demand a huge compensation for it - God save us from becoming a pawn in this game. Russia has proved many times that if it wants something, it will leave no stone unturned and reach its goals... The interests of America and Russia are so contradictory that the Cold War is already underway." (Sakartvelos Respublica, April 3).
AZERBAIJAN
Opposition publications have described Russia's potential measures against the deployment of American ABM defense elements in the South Caucasus as a step that can upset the region's fragile stability. "Analysts have voiced apprehensions that new division lines may appear in the South Caucasus, which is already a seat of too many regional conflicts. In any event, de facto Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh has suggested that Russia should install a radar in Sukhumi in response to the potential deployment of an American missile defense radar in Georgia ... At first sight, deployment of a radar on the territory of an unrecognized state is nonsense in the context of international law... But 'military-strategic cooperation' with illegal armed formations has long stopped being political know-how for the Russian generals." (Echo, March 29).
KAZAKHSTAN
The media believe that Moscow's new "pragmatic" foreign policy towards its neighbors has considerably narrowed its opportunities in the region. "The European nations would not wish to depend on Russia's oil and gas, even less so after Gazprom's wars with Belarus and Ukraine. This is why they are now compelled to look at Central Asia (Aikyn, March 30). "Russia's attempt to reduce the presence of its Central Asian rivals in the energy market does not improve Moscow's chances in the battle for export pipelines from the Caspian region because the readiness to blank off the hydrocarbon tap is fraught with growing political pressure. This is why Russia is treated with caution (by its partners)." (Liter.kz, March 31).
KYRGYZSTAN
Some experts believe that at present the Kremlin prefers to remain neutral about the domestic political conflict in Kyrgyzstan. "Russia will continue to observe the law in Kyrgyzstan. It has nothing to gain by siding with any of the conflicting political camps. The same applies to the United States. These powers have learnt a good lesson from the events of March 24, 2005 (the Tulip revolution)..., There is probably a source of money the opposition and its political foes have been dipping into, but it is not directly linked with the governments of the U.S., Russia or China. Most probably, this is unparalleled generosity of some international organizations." (MSN, March 30).
UZBEKISTAN
Experts believe that in the next few years the flow of migrants from Central Asia will steadily increase. The press is particularly worried about a decline in the use of the Russian language, which is making life in Russia difficult for migrants. "Russian has become important in the context of growing labor migration to Russia - guest workers cannot negotiate the terms of employment, nor defend their rights when dealing with their employers or law-enforcement bodies. Their criminal compatriots who know Russian quite well do not hesitate to take advantage of the situation, and act as mediators for their 'silent brothers.'" (Fergana.ru, April 2).
TAJIKISTAN
The press has focused on the negative consequences of a potential decline in Russian-Turkmen fuel contacts. "Against the background of a lull in Russian-Turkmen relations, there are reports from Ashkhabad about the active contacts of its leaders with the West. The question 'Who is Mr. Berdymukhammedov?' which worried world powers in February, seems to have been resolved... Experts are convinced that the new Turkmen leader will build up gas exports, leaving Russia out... Russia will find it very difficult to reduce its dependence on Turkmen gas because it accounts for more than 20% of Russia's gas exports." (Asia-Plus, March 29).
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