MOSCOW, April 9 (RIA Novosti) Russia plays a role in escalating Iranian crisis/ Russia does not want a formal "gas OPEC"/ Brussels bureaucrats put political slant on energy issues - expert/ Yury Luzhkov set to run Moscow for another four years/ Left-wing idea in Russia means a strong state - expert
Gazeta.ru
Russia plays a role in escalating Iranian crisis
On Sunday, Tehran aggravated relations with Russia and the West by threatening to produce nuclear fuel on its own regardless of whether the Bushehr project, a nuclear power plant being built by Russia, was completed or not. The Iranian government hinted that it would freeze the construction of the plant, which they accuse Moscow of delaying.
The Iranian maneuver is their response to Moscow, which is demanding payment for the construction of the plant. In mid-January, according to Russian nuclear scientists, Iran stopped paying. At the end of March, Atomstroyexport, the Russian contractor for the construction of Bushehr, announced that Teheran had paid only a small proportion of the project. On April 3, Sergei Kiriyenko, head of the Russian Nuclear Power Agency, optimistically predicted that "Iran will keep to the agreed schedule of payments" for the plant construction. For the first quarter of 2007, Russia received $15 million, including $10 million at the end of March, Kiriyenko said.
The threat to derail the agreement forced Russia to take urgent and firm action. A Russian delegation of specialists from Atomstroyexport is leaving for Teheran today.
The negotiations will certainly be tense. Russia has two choices: to allow Iran to make payments for Bushehr after completion of the project or to insist that it be paid on time.
The latter possibility could have unpleasant consequences for both countries. Russia could lose funds it has invested and Iran could be put under more pressure from the West for making its nuclear program less transparent. In that case Iran runs the risk of losing Russia's support, including its backing at the UN Security Council, where Moscow has a veto.
The construction of Bushehr was started by Germany in 1975 under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In 1995, Russia and Iran signed an agreement on building the first generation unit. The project is estimated to be worth more than $1 billion.
Kommersant
Russia does not want a formal "gas OPEC"
Viktor Khristenko, Russian Minister of Industry and Energy, has left for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in Doha, Qatar. He will not sign any documents that would lead to the establishment of a gas cartel.
Instead, Russian gas monopoly Gazprom will hold talks to discuss the construction of gas liquefaction plants, because rumor of a "gas OPEC" is improving the positions of all national gas producers in such projects.
Gazprom will attend the GECF meeting because of the European Union's plans to liberalize member countries' gas markets on July 1, 2007 and to continue with a policy of diversifying gas suppliers.
Alexander Medvedev, deputy CEO of Gazprom and head of its exporting subsidiary, Gazprom Export, said before departure for Doha: "It is impossible to diversify suppliers, because you only have a choice between Iran, Russia and Qatar."
Gazprom would like to have access to the GECF Board in order to pressurize the EU, even if only politically. The Industry and Energy Ministry wants to put distance between itself and formal accusations of the establishment of a "gas cartel," which the United States has criticized.
In fact, a gas cartel cannot be modeled on OPEC, which directly coordinates prices, because liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounted for 6.9% of global gas consumption (2.75 trillion cubic meters of gas) in 2005, but the International Energy Agency forecasts an increase in its share to 10-12% (476 billion cubic meters) by 2010.
At the same time, GECF countries could coordinate their operations on gas pipelines and LNG to pressurize investors and clients into paying more. Such collaboration could help improve Russia's stance in the Nord Stream and Shtokman projects, and help Qatar raise the prices of LNG to be supplied to the U.S. from Qatargas's new plants in Qatar beginning 2012. This could also benefit Algeria's project to expand its Green Stream pipeline and Trinidad's AtlanticLNG-5 destined for the U.S.
However, gas exporters should be careful not to exceed the permissible level of pressure. It is worth remembering how excessive pressure from the Untied States ruined the GECF meeting in 2006.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Brussels bureaucrats put political slant on energy issues - expert
Saying that Russia has decided to use energy as a weapon is hardly justifiable, writes Konstantin Simonov, CEO of the Fund for National Energy Security. In reality, energy is politicized on the bidding of the European Union and only political arguments can back up the EU's invented theory that Russia needs to cut its European market share.
Russia, they say, is building up an authoritarian regime and dreams of nothing else but damaging Europe. An amusing scene: Russia will spend huge sums on a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea only to turn off the tap later with a sadistic sneer. And the fact that even during the Cold War the U.S.S.R. never used gas and oil exports as a political argument is ignored.
On the other hand, one should not rush to the conclusion that Europe stand is united. What is usually heard in Russia is the opinion expressed by Brussels bureaucrats, which differs fundamentally from the energy corporations. Corporations and bureaucrats find themselves on opposite sides of the barricade. Business has a more sober perspective on Europe's fuel outlook. This was eloquently expressed recently by Wintershall's chairman Reinier Zwitserloot, speaking at the end of March. According to him, without Russia Europe will not have access to reliable gas supplies and those that fear energy dependence on Russia can only turn to Iran as an alternative.
Whatever is said about diversification of supplies, anyone even slightly familiar with the structure of the planet's hydrocarbon reserves will see that there is no feasible alternative to Russia. Central Asia and Africa are unable to double as Russia.
European energy companies dream of taking part in oil and gas projects in Russia, even as minority shareholders. While Europe continues its hysterics over the Yukos affair, European companies are purchasing with gusto the assets that once belonged to the embattled concern. EU newspapers cry about the purchase of stolen property, while Eni picks up Arktikgaz and Urengoil, the Italians know that in a modern world any method to gain access to gas resources is required. Because the idea of a car driven by sugar beet and cheap solar energy are figments of an over fertile imagination.
Vedomosti
Yury Luzhkov set to run Moscow for another four years
Moscow mayor Yury Luzhkov, 70, the most famous Russian regional leader, who has been in office since 1992, hopes to keep his job for another four years. The paper's sources said Luzhkov has a good chance of being supported by President Vladimir Putin in the future.
There are no gubernatorial elections in Russia nowadays as the president appoints all regional administrators.
There is currently no alternative to Luzhkov; but experts believe the Kremlin will request additional conditions to reduce his maneuvering room.
Relations between the Kremlin and Luzhkov were not always smooth. In 1999, Luzhkov forged an alliance with the then Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and said he was ready to support Primakov at the 2000 presidential elections.
However, both men soon halted the confrontation of the Kremlin; the Fatherland - All Russia party, headed by Luzhkov and Primakov, unequivocally voiced their support for Vladimir Putin in 2000.
Luzhkov, who has been co-chairing the Supreme Council of United Russia, a descendant of Fatherland - All Russia, since 2000, continues to criticize federal officials on economic issues.
A Kremlin official said the president will not refuse Luzhkov's request.
Another source close to the Kremlin said Luzhkov had his own political ambitions; there have also been some dramatic clashes surrounding Moscow real estate; and he has also made some rather surprising statements.
He said that everyone admits that there was no alternative to Luzhkov; if you take him away, then no one could predict what would happen next.
Luzhkov will depend on just one voter for the first time in a decade. "Previously, Luzhkov convincingly proved his popularity in elections; now he will merely be appointed," said Yevgeny Bunimovich, member of the Moscow city legislature.
The Kremlin always makes tough demands, when reappointing governors, whose teams must include federal officials, Alexander Kynev, director of regional programs at the Foundation for Information Policy Development, told the paper.
He said that he expected that Luzhkov could be asked to do the same. This may concern the United Russia party ticket at the December 2007 parliamentary elections, as well as land plots and real estate in the Russian capital.
Vremya Novostei, Kommersant
Left-wing idea in Russia means a strong state - expert
Six months before parliamentary elections, politicians are trying to decide which political cocktail will entice voters to the polling stations, while pollsters are trying to determine if these plans can succeed.
Leonty Byzov, chief analyst with the VTsIOM pollster, said: "Left-wing sentiments have been increasing in strength since the late 1990s. The share of individuals with left-wing tendencies has grown 3-4% in the past year, to more than 40%."
According to the analyst, the aim of left-wing ideology in Russia is not a civil society like the West, but a strong state capable of restoring order in the country. The people believe that only a strong state (political regime) can ensure social justice.
Nearly all social groups endorse "law and order," including those that voted for right-wing parties in the past. This is the current political mainstream in Russia, Byzov writes.
The division into left- and right-wing sectors is no longer as acute as it was in the 1990s. People do not view parties as the bearers of social ideas, and ideological disputes now seem a waste of time to them. Russians do not see any leaders capable of achieving their goals, and parties appear to be leaderless, empty shells, according to Byzov.
However, right-wing liberals still pin their hopes on the "old guard." The left-wing turn in the tactic of the Union of Right Forces (SPS) can lead to leadership changes, a party source said yesterday. "The idea is being debated by the party," he said.
According to the source, party liberals plan to adjust left-wing policy by recruiting the services of former SPS leader Boris Nemtsov. "Some party members believe that we should use the services of the old guard, who could convince business and voters of the absence of a left-wing policy," the source said.
Nemtsov said he might resume working in the party because "the SPS is losing its identity."
He said: "The party is facing the danger of losing its identity in the Russian political space."
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