Many were carrying flowers, and some are doing the same now. Do you remember what happened then? Two hours after the demonstration, which the opposition leaders had proclaimed peaceful, reached the presidential residence, the 15-year regime of Askar Akayev fell.
Looking at the picture that has become usual in the past two years - the country has won the first place in the world for per capita number of pickets, demonstrations and other protests over this time - I wonder how long President Kurmanbek Bakiyev will hold out.
By 3 p.m. on April 11, over 5,000 opponents of the incumbent president gathered at the country's main arena, Ala-Too Square. They were brought here under banners of different colors, from white and blue to orange and red, by Bakiyev's former ally and former Prime Minister Felix Kulov. The United Front "For a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan", set up by Kulov and his supporters as soon as he had left his post, is demanding change of power. Its other demands - a constitutional reform, revocation of some of Bakiyev's authority, formation of a legitimate coalition government - had been rendered irrelevant by the time.
The day before, Bakiyev announced in a televised address that the new draft of the constitution, which took into account the demands of the opposition, had been already submitted to the parliament. The draft, which is in fact an almost exact copy of the variant worked out during the previous confrontation between the authorities and the opposition in November 2006, limits presidential powers so that the country is protected against him turning into an authoritarian ruler, which was the case with Akayev.
Incumbent Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev was seen as a powerful opposition leader not so long ago and vehemently criticized Bakiyev. They managed to come to terms, however, and Atambayev has almost formed a cabinet that has a significant representation of figures that would have been completely unacceptable for the president just a few days ago.
That would seem enough... But the Front brought its forces out into the streets, promising that there will be a whole legion by the evening of April 12. "One hundred thousand people," Kulov said, adding: "We will stay there until power is transferred to us in a peaceful way."
Deja vu... We already saw this in March 2005. Snipers on the roof of the local White House, the seat of both the cabinet and the president. An armored vehicle, water cannons, task force servicemen peering behind the shields, with nightsticks pressed to their legs. I am walking across the square. Everything seems painfully familiar. Idol rock singers Viktor Tsoi and Yuri Shevchuk over loudspeakers. Two dozen yurts and as many army tents, where you can hide from the burning sun during the day and from a spring rain at night.
It rained in the morning, and puddles in the square mirror hundreds of feet, faces and slogans. This time, however, they call for the dismissal of Bakiyev, not Akayev like in 2005. Portable toilets, inflatable mattresses in the yurts, and the familiar line handing out hamburgers and money. But if in March 2005 and November 2006 a day of standing on the square brought 100 soms ($3) to an ordinary protester and 1,000 soms ($30) to a brigadier, this time the rates have doubled, people in the crowd are saying.
What is the cost of the entire performance? It is hard to say. There is a rumor that the March 2005 revolution cost its organizers just $300,000. It is unclear what will happen tomorrow. Both parties pledge tough order. Police General Omurbek Suvanaliyev, the former interior minister recently fired by Bakiyev, now heads the Front's headquarters and has promised to prevent mass disorder. He, however, lamented about possible provocations on the part of the authorities.
Present interior minister, Police General Bolot Nogoibayev said he would face the people unarmed and personally inspect his subordinates to make sure none of them were carrying weapons. The authorities have prohibited firing, except if there are attempts to seize the main administrative buildings.
General Murat Sutalinov, chairman of the State National Security Committee, has said that if disorder and looting start in the capital, as was the case in 2005, firearms will be used after all. According to his information, small criminal gangs have already arrived in Bishkek "to get food and clothes," he said. He believes that raids will start and then fire will be inevitable. How many days of peace has Bishkek left?
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
