MOSCOW, April 26 (RIA Novosti) ABM danger a way to solve other problems/LUKoil set to return to Iraq/ Russia and EU can bargain over repairs on Druzhba pipeline/ Gazprom may lose its first Sakhalin license/ Russia permits China to re-export aircraft engines to Pakistan
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
ABM danger a way to solve other problems
The recent Moscow visit by new U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, as well as the Russian-American ABM quarrel in general, is creating a strange impression, a prominent Russian political and military analyst writes in the popular daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Alexander Khramchikhin, chief expert with the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, believes Moscow and Washington may be using the ABM issue to solve their internal problems.
Any threat coming to Russia from the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Poland and the early warning radar in the Czech Republic will be a fantasy in the foreseeable future, and possibly always, the analyst writes. The same goes for the threat to the United States allegedly posed by Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are highly unlikely to be built at all.
So, why are the Americans moving their ABM system to Europe? And why is Russia in hysterics over it?
The Kremlin and the White House are very familiar with each other's real plans. According to Khramchikhin, Washington has been trying to intimidate Russia with ABM components in Europe, and Moscow has been threatening to take "adequate response measures" in order to solve their internal problems.
The Pentagon and the U.S. defense industry always aims to receive as much funding as current levels. This means that they need super projects, which will also demonstrate to the American taxpayers that they care about their security.
The Kremlin needs the siege mentality to strengthen the regime, and the U.S. ABM system is the best imaginable pretext, the analyst writes. Ordinary Russians will easily be taken in by "American bases surrounding Russia" because they know nothing about the actual potential of the United States and NATO, the technical characteristics of the U.S. ABM system or the Russian strategic nuclear forces.
Russia and the United States have been lashing out at each other, trying to hit the most sensitive areas. They will continue doing this for some time, increasing their international weight and creating a pretext for an exchange. The ABM monster appears to be the best such excuse, and an exchange is what Gates was referring to in Moscow.
If the deal goes through, we will find out about its results only through indirect evidence that has no connection whatsoever to ABM, Khramchikhin writes.
Gazeta.ru
LUKoil set to return to Iraq
LUKoil, the largest oil company in Russia, became the first international major to stake a claim in Iraq following the 2003 U.S. invasion, because Russian projects in the country might be threatened under the post-Saddam government.
U.S. ground forces have virtually paralyzed oil production in Iraq; LUKoil, which signed a contract in 1997, when Hussein was in power, was also affected.
The LUKoil press service said the company only managed to conduct preparatory work before the UN imposed sanctions on Baghdad. LUKoil was unable to bring in equipment to commence drilling operations.
However, under a previous production sharing agreement, the company would now be expected to develop the West Qurna deposit, containing an estimated 11-15 billion barrels of crude oil.
Yekaterina Kravchenko, an analyst with BrokerCreditService, said, unlike Eastern Siberia, the Middle East is an extremely attractive region for Russian companies because it has many large and easy to work hydrocarbon deposits.
She said the current Iraqi leaders were unlikely to cancel the contract with LUKoil in favor of the United States.
"As far as geopolitics is concerned, Russia has always been closer to Iraq and an ally of Baghdad, than the United States," Kravchenko said.
Political scientists said the United States would not create problems for LUKoil and could even help the company.
Alexei Makarkin, deputy general director of the Center of Political Technologies, said the new Iraqi government's reluctance to accept contracts signed in the Hussein era, rather than U.S. intrigues, could be the main problem during the signing of the new oil law.
He said LUKoil could use the resources of U.S. oil major ConocoPhillips, its minority shareholder. "LUKoil could profit because U.S. interests will be affected," Makarkin told the paper.
It appears that political leverage will also be used if necessary. LUKoil chief executive officer Vagit Alekperov said the government, the Foreign Ministry, and President Vladimir Putin have all promised to help the company.
Kommersant
Russia and EU can bargain over repairs on Druzhba pipeline
The Russian Industry and Energy Ministry said yesterday that it could be possible to resume oil supplies to Lithuania through the Druzhba-1 pipeline, which is currently out of use. Analysts say that Russia could bargain with Poland using the pipeline reconstruction issue at the Russia-EU summit in May.
Oil supplies to Lithuania through the Druzhba pipeline were suspended in July 2006 following an accident at the pipeline. This coincided with a confrontation between Russia and Lithuania, when the Mazeikiu nafta refinery, which LUKoil, TNK-BP and Rosneft bid for, was sold to the Polish company PKN ORLEN.
Russia pledged to introduce a plan to carry out repair works on the Druzhba pipeline to Lithuania by March 15, but has not completed it. The Federal Environmental, Engineering and Nuclear Supervision Agency (Rostekhnadzor) has said recently that it would be possible to resume oil supplies only after the reconstruction of the Unecha-Polotsk section (a branch of the Druzhba pipeline leading to Lithuania).
The Industry and Energy Ministry said yesterday that the question surrounding the pipeline's reconstruction was "an artificial politicization of a technical incident" and added that supplies of Russian oil to Lithuania had not been suspended, but were going via other routes.
Georgy Ivanin, an analyst with the Antanta Capital investment company, said that the issue of the pipeline reconstruction could be used not only during the talks with the EU on the signing of a new treaty on cooperation and ratification of the Energy Charter, but also during talks with Poland on the construction of the Russian-German Nord Stream gas pipeline, which could deprive Poland of the transit of Russian gas.
Polish Economics Minister Piotr Wozniak said yesterday that a section of the Nord Stream will go through the Polish economic zone and therefore is under Polish jurisdiction. He warned that in case of any violations "the project will not be completed."
Konstantin Batunin, an analyst with Alfa-Bank, said that Russia's position in bargaining was much stronger than that of Poland. If the decision to build the Unecha-Primorsk pipeline (BTS-2) is made, sufficient investments in the repair of the Druzhba pipeline would make no sense, he said.
Vedomosti
Gazprom may lose its first Sakhalin license
Russia's Federal Agency for Subsoil Use (Rosnedra) has instructed Gazprom to surrender its exploration license for the Lopukhovskoye block in Sakhalin, Russia's Far East, by June 1.
The energy giant may lose the license because its oil subsidiary, Gazprom Neft, has not drilled a single exploration well at the block in the past year.
The exploration license for the block was granted in 2002 to TNK-Sakhalin, the operator of the Sakhalin IV project, in which Gazprom Neft's 100% subsidiary bought 75% in 2005. The remaining 25% belongs to Sakhalin Oil Company controlled by the regional administration.
Rosnedra said it would not extend the license for Lopukhovskoye, whose prospective reserves had been estimated at 130 million metric tons of oil and 500 billion cubic meters of gas. The agency's commission for the early revocation of licenses yesterday proposed that Gazprom Neft surrender the license to the undistributed license fund, said a source close to the commission. A representative of the Natural Resources Ministry has confirmed the information.
Under the license, the owner should have drilled an exploration well and held marine seismic tests in 2003, the source said. The agency could have revoked the license, but did not do it because it was due to expire anyway.
The Lopukhovskoye block was Gazprom's entrance ticket to Sakhalin's offshore deposits. Sibneft, which had bought a controlling stake in TNK-Sakhalin, belonged to Gazprom, who wanted access to the Sakhalin IV deposit.
According to the sources, Sibneft paid about $70 million for the stake, but questioned the expediency of the deal in summer 2006. Gazprom Neft intended to reassess the block's reserves and possibly to sell the license to Gazprom.
Sakhalin is not a priority sphere for Gazprom Neft, and so it is unlikely to fight to extend the license. It is not the cost of the license, but the expediency of developing the block that matters, said the company's spokesman.
Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the Troika Dialog brokerage, shares this view.
Gazprom refused to comment.
Kommersant
Russia permits China to re-export aircraft engines to Pakistan
Moscow has officially authorized Beijing to re-export Russian aircraft engines to Pakistan, which could also receive 150 Chinese JF-17 fighters, as well as engines under a $238 million contract, which may be expanded to $3.75 billion.
The Kremlin administration said engine supplies to Pakistan would not affect Russian-Indian military and technical cooperation worth $1.5 billion a year.
Russia and China agreed to jointly manufacture JF-17 fighters fitted with RD-93 engines and to sell them to third countries, a source in the Russian government said. The fighters would go to Pakistan, South East Asia and Africa, where China has traditionally strong positions.
The Kremlin administration said President Vladimir Putin oversaw the contract, and the concerned parties, including the Defense Ministry, the Federal Industry Agency and Rosoboronexport, the main national state-owned arms exporter, had approved the deal.
But the permit does not mean that Russia and Pakistan will directly cooperate in the military-technical sphere and only applies to one contract.
Previously, experts believed India would be unhappy with the deal because Moscow and New Delhi have signed an intergovernmental agreement banning arms sales to Islamabad.
Romesh Chandra, press attache at the Indian Embassy in Moscow, told Kommersant that embassy officials know nothing about the permit.
According to the Kremlin administration, the Russian-Chinese deal is not detrimental to the interests of New Delhi.
"India now buys fourth-plus generation warplanes from Russia, while JF-17 fighters are already obsolete," an administration source said.
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